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101.
This paper argues that the international monetary system will evolve into a bipolar structure consisting of a dollar area and a euro area, each of which attracting other countries to their gravitational centers. A deepening and widening of NAFTA and the EU will enlarge the sphere of influence of both currencies; trade wars will restrict them. The yen is a big question mark. The deep and still unresolved financial crisis in Japan works against the enlargement of the yen; deregulation of its financial markets, with the attendant decline in transaction costs, goes in the opposite direction. Our conclusion is that the yen area will be much smaller than the dollar and the euro area and, consequently, the two large blocs will shape the international monetary system of the 21st century in a critical way. We also discuss feasible scenarios of interaction between currency blocs. A large EMU works in favor of cooperation because fewer players imply lower decision-making costs in reaching a cooperative solution. The relative closeness of the EMU and the United States, on the other hand, works against cooperation and in favor of benign neglect. Exchange-rate agreements are fragile unless supported by strong commitment to economic policy cooperation, and such a commitment may well be premature. The article advocates that the United States and EMU target common inflation rates, an idea that Keynes proposed back in 1923. 相似文献
102.
103.
The natural rate of interest plays a key role in Wicksell'scumulative process as well as in modern monetaryequilibrium models of the business cycle. It constitutes a usefulconcept for the theoretical analysis of the interdependenceof monetary policy and economic fluctuations. However, the usefulnessof this concept for the practice of monetary policy is limited—especiallyowing to the fact that the natural real rate of interest andits law of motion cannot be measured with satisfying precision. 相似文献
104.
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106.
Winfried J. Steiner Andreas Brezger Christiane Belitz 《Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services》2007,14(6):383-393
Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects. 相似文献
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Dr. Johannes Hoffmann ist Referent in der Abteilung Konjunktur und Wachstum der Deutschen Bundesbank; Hans-Albert Leifer Dipl.-?konom ist Leiter der Abteilung Allgemeine Wirtschaftsstatistik Kapitalmarktstatistik Jahresabschlussdatenpool
der Deutschen Bundesbank und Andreas Lorenz Dipl.-Volkswirt ist dort Mitarbeiter. 《Wirtschaftsdienst》2005,85(11):706-714
Nach der Euro-Umstellung Anfang 2002 entwickelte sich das Preisempfinden deutlich anders als der gemessene Verbraucherpreisindex.
Inwieweit wird auch heute noch die Preisentwicklung von den Konsumenten übersch?tzt? Wie zuverl?ssig misst der von Hans Wolfgang
Brachinger entwickelte „Index der wahrgenommenen Inflation“ dieses Ph?nomen? Zu welchen Ergebnissen kommen die von der EU-Kommission
beauftragten Verbraucherumfragen?
Die Verfasser geben ihre pers?nliche Auffassung wieder, die nicht unbedingt mit derjenigen der Deutschen Bundesbank übereinstimmen
muss. 相似文献
109.
Indoctrination or education? Intention of unqualified teachers to transfer consumption norms in home economics teaching 下载免费PDF全文
Andreas Håkansson 《International Journal of Consumer Studies》2015,39(6):682-691
Almost two thirds of home economics (HE) teachers in Sweden are formally unqualified (FU). Historically, HE has focused more on fostering and prescribing the ‘right’ choices whereas the modern (2011‐) curriculum focuses on teaching consequences of choices and giving students tools for assessing alternatives. Restraining from prescribing norms requires a high degree of professionalism. The objective of this study was to empirically investigate the prevalence of intentions of FU teachers to prescribe consumption norms not supported by the curriculum. Furthermore, to investigate to what extent these intentions are correlated with years of experience as a teacher, personal preferences, or personal consumption. The intention to transfer norms were measured using the concept of intentional misalignment applied to a survey distributed to a sample of FU teachers attending complementary teacher education. A two part survey was used. The first part consisted of multiple choice questions asking the teachers how important they saw it to transfer different consumption norms to their students (e.g. to consume local or organic food). These responses were evaluated quantitatively (Spearman rank correlation, Wilcoxon rank sum test and Kruskal‐Wallis analysis of variance). The second part consisted of an open‐ended question asking teachers to describe what they saw as the most important take‐home message for students in HE. The answers were compared to the national curriculum to identify intentions to transfer unsupported norms. The study indicates that more than a third of the FU HE teachers in Sweden express the intention to prescribe specific types of consumption or to transfer consumption norms that are not supported by the curriculum. The prevalence is correlated to personal preferences and thus indicates difficulties with keeping a professional perspective. These teachers must be given collegial support and opportunities for continued education–to ensure high‐quality HE education for future generations. 相似文献
110.