Impact of MiFID II tick-size regime on equity markets—Evidence from the LSE

This study investigates the impact of MiFID II on the London Stock Exchange. We find that a tick-size reduction leads to lower bid–ask spreads, lower trade values, reduced cost of trading at and beyond the best bid-offer, an acceleration of quote updates, an increase in aggressive trades and a reduction in price impact. Increased tick size widens spreads and increases trading costs. Step functions reveal that liquidity adjusts opposite to the tick change. To determine if impacts are proportional, we identify potential functions that predict cost changes with tick updates, implying that traders adjust their trade sizes according to the new tick levels.     

The Impact of DC Pension Systems on Population Dynamics

Abstract

This study investigates the risk inherent in defined contribution (DC) pension plans on an individual and aggregate basis, based on U.S. data. Our aim is to gain insight into the consequences of a DC pension scheme becoming the predominant pillar of retirement income for an entire society. Using the stochastic simulated output of a DC flexible age-of-retirement model, we first determine the optimal investment strategies. We then examine the demographic retirement dynamics of an entire population of DC pension plan participants.

We observe that even for the most risk-averse plan members there is a high level of uncertainty in an individual’s age at retirement. At the aggregate population level, we find that this uncertainty does not get dampened to any great extent by a diversification effect. Instead, the central role played by the market in determining retirement dates results in significant variation in the dependency ratio (the ratio of retirees to workers) over time. In addition, an attempt to ameliorate the outcome by introducing additional realistic features in the DC population modeling did little to dampen this volatility, which suggests that countries dominated by DC schemes of this type may, over time, be exposed to significant risk in the size of its labor force.     

Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms’ disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS.  We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher.  Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms’ voluntary disclosures.     

Corporate Finance and Sustainability: the Case of the Electric Utility Industry

The electric utility industry is in transition but needs to move even faster if the country is to meet its emissions goals. The industry has historically moved cautiously, but policies and regulatory approaches must avoid unintentionally reinforcing the status quo. Incentive‐oriented policies and redesigned regulations must balance environmental sustainability with economic sustainability. The authors draw on well‐established corporate finance principles to guide more effective policies. Shareholder‐focused utility executives must make investments conditioned by three elements: (1) the return on equity the utility can expect to make on each project; (2) the investors' required return on equity capital for each project; and (3) the size of the investment. The well‐established economic value added (EVA) model can assist policy analysis: V=(r‐k)I; where V is the shareholder value created, r is the return on equity, k is the return investors require if they are to invest in the stock, and I is the scale of the project. Any new incremental V translates into higher stock prices. All three elements of their model (i.e., risk, return, and scale) require attention by regulators and policymakers to create value for shareholders. The authors show how the right state policies could create powerful incentives for shareholder focused utility executives to support such transitions.     

Barrier option pricing: a hybrid method approach

This paper adapts the hybrid method, a combination of the Laplace transformation and the finite-difference approach, to the pricing of barrier-style options. The hybrid method eliminates the time steps and provides a highly accurate and precise numerical solution that can be rapidly obtained. This method is superior to lattice methods when trying to solve barrier-style options. Previous studies have tried to solve barrier-style options; however, there have continually been several disadvantages. Very small time steps and stock node spaces are needed to avoid undesirable numerically induced oscillations in the solution of barrier option. In addition, all the intermediate option prices must be computed at each time step, even though one may be only interested in the terminal price of barrier-style complex options. The hybrid method may also solve more complex problems concerning barrier-style options with various boundary constraints such as options with a time-varying rebate. In order to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed scheme, we compare our algorithm with several well-known pricing formulas of barrier-type options. The numerical results show that the hybrid method is robust, and provides a highly accurate solution and fast convergence, regardless of whether or not the initial asset prices are close to the barrier.     

Dividends,research and development expenditures,and the value relevance of book value for UK loss-making firms

We extend prior research on the value relevance of accounting information for loss-making firms by allowing the coefficient of book value to vary across three distinct set of loss-making firm observations in our valuation model. Our key findings are, first, that book value is a less important determinant of equity value for either high R&D-intensive firms or dividend-paying firms, relative to firms with low R&D-intensity and zero dividends. Prior literature suggests that book value is a strong indicator of firm value for loss-making firms. This reasoning stems from book value's role as: (i) a proxy for the value of the possibility of abandoning or adapting the firms' net assets; and/or (ii) a proxy for expected future normal earnings. Our work suggests that this prior literature does not fully capture the valuation role of book value for loss-making firms. Second, we also find that dividends are value relevant, but generally only when the valuation role of book value is contextualised by allowing its coefficient to vary across high R&D-intensive firms, and dividend-paying, loss-making firms.     

The Many Dimensions of Child Poverty: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study*

In this paper, we use a multidimensional framework to characterise child poverty in the UK. We examine the interdependencies amongst the different dimensions of multidimensional poverty and the relationship between multidimensional poverty and income poverty. We also explore the links between multidimensional poverty, income poverty and children's cognitive and non‐cognitive development. Our findings suggest that multidimensional poverty identifies many but not all of the same children classified using standard income poverty measures. Approximately 20 per cent of children are classified as poor on one measure but not the other. Children in workless households and ethnic minority children face the highest odds of growing up in both multidimensional poverty and income poverty. We find similar levels of persistence in multidimensional poverty and income poverty, with 17 per cent (18 per cent) of children experiencing persistent multidimensional (income) poverty and 10 per cent of children experiencing both persistent multidimensional poverty and persistent income poverty. Multidimensional poverty (both episodic and persistent) also has a detrimental impact on children's development over and above the negative impact of income poverty.     

Job Creation by the Self-employed: The Roles of Entrepreneurial and Financial Capital

The paper reports micro-econometric evidence on the factors that influence the ability of the small businesses to create employment. It uses data on self-employment from a British panel survey. In particular it investigates the contributions of financial and entrepreneurial capital to job creation. Housing wealth appears to be significantly associated with small business job creation. It appears to act as an important source of financial collateral. The parental background of the small business owner is also significantly associated with job creation. Successful entrepreneurs are more likely to have had self-employed parents, and in particular parents who employed others. Educational attainment, in particular at degree level, is also important. The preferred model incorporates individual random effects and the significance of these suggests the importance of unobserved latent entrepreneurial ability. The British Household Panel Survey data used in this paper were made available through the ESRC Data Archive. The data were originally collected by the ESRC Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex. Neither the original collector of the data nor the Archive bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. I am grateful to Reza Arabsheibani for helpful comments at a preliminary stage, and to seminar participants at the Welsh Assembly Government, Cardiff.     

Emotions and dissonance in ‘ethical’ consumption choices

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of emotions and the prevalence of dissonant/incongruent choice behaviour within the context of ethical consumption. Based on 31 in-depth interviews with British consumers, the findings demonstrate that consumers consciously indulge in ‘ethical’ and ‘unethical’ behaviour (as defined by respondents themselves), often within short time frames, and that they often compensate for unethical choices by making ethical choices later on (and vice versa). The study provides evidence that positive and negative emotions are a key driver of this dissonant behaviour. Guilt is the most salient emotion, and a taxonomy of guilt in this context is derived from the data. Consumers are found to employ guilt-management strategies in order to sustain contradictory behaviour and manage cognitive dissonance. A conceptual framework is derived in order to summarise the observed role of emotions in ethical consumer choice. The paper also provides additional explanations of the manifestation of the attitude–behaviour gap.     

A New Venture's Cognitive Legitimacy: An Assessment by Customers

Many legitimacy problems associated with new ventures appear to stem from a lack of customers' knowledge and understanding of the new venture. Of particular concern to entrepreneurs is cognitive legitimacy. The findings of this article suggest that customers appear to have a preference for greater rather than lesser information about a new venture's product, organization, and management (holding the content of that information constant). Furthermore, customers appear to use a contingent decision policy. For an independent startup business that is perceived as new on all three dimensions, priority should be given to building customer knowledge in the product, followed by building customer knowledge in the organization. Less attention should be given to building the customer's knowledge in the management team, although such actions still will build cognitive legitimacy.