The Robustness of the APT to Alternative Estimators

We test the robustness of the APT to two alternative estimation procedures: the Fama and MacBeth (1973) two-step methodology; and the one-step procedure due to Burmeister and McElroy (1988). We find that the APT is indeed sensitive to the chosen estimator and assumptions about the factor structure of stock returns. We believe that our findings have implications for the estimation of asset pricing models in general.     

SOME ANALYTICS OF WHY CONDITIONAL IRRs CAN CONTAIN GROWTH RATE RELATED MEASUREMENT ERROR

This paper investigates the consequences of incorrectly modelling the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship on estimates of the internal rate of return (IRR) prepared by using cash recovery rates (CRRs). The main result of this paper is that CRR-based estimates of the IRR will contain such bias if and only if either the duration of the assumed shape of the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship is less than the duration of the true investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship for all rates of interest or the duration of the assumed shape of the investment outflowlbenefit inflow relationship is greater than the duration of the true investment outflowlbenefit inflow relationship for all rates of interest. This result is then applied to the case where both the true and the assumed shape of the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationships have benefit inflows that change exponentially over time. It is shown that if the exponential rate of change is mis-specified the resulting CRR-based estimate of the IRR will contain systematic bias monotonically related to the rate of growth.     

Do Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Encourage Managers to Improve the Firm's Cash Flows? Evidence from Tax Planning

Recent research finds that analysts' cash flow forecasts have meaningful financial reporting ramifications, but, to date, the identified effects are unlikely to yield meaningful cash flow benefits. This study examines whether analysts' cash flow forecasts encourage managers to enhance the firm's cash flow position through tax avoidance activities. We evaluate the change in cash tax avoidance after analysts begin issuing cash flow forecasts relative to a propensity score matched control sample of firms without cash flow forecasts. Consistent with analysts' cash flow forecasts encouraging tax avoidance that enhances the firm's cash flow health, we find a negative association between cash tax payments and analysts' cash flow coverage. Additional analysis suggests this association is driven primarily by strategies to permanently avoid rather than to temporarily defer tax payments and that increased cash tax avoidance activity represents a nontrivial component of the overall increase in reported operating cash flows after the initiation of analysts' cash flow coverage.     

Shakeout in the early commercial airframe industry

The commercial airframe industry in the US experienced a shakeout from the early 1930s into the post‐Second World War period. Unlike shakeouts in automobiles, tyres, or televisions, the commercial airframe industry's early life cycle was affected by external factors, particularly government demand. Using newly digitized data on all planes introduced in the commercial market between 1926 and 1965, we find that commercial airframe manufacturers with bomber contracts during the Second World War were more likely to have postwar market share than firms without such contracts, controlling for plane characteristics and other forms of government contracting. We attribute the effect of bomber contracts to advantages in R&D learning capacity acquired by firms with military airframe contracts. Despite low (or zero) initial presence in the commercial market, these learning capacity advantages allowed such firms to survive the early period of the shakeout, and later to thrive.     

Running the Numbers on Lotteries and the Poor: An Empirical Analysis of Transfer Payment Distribution and Subsequent Lottery Sales

State lottery revenues are shown to increase during the week transfer payments are distributed. The timing of the increase in lottery purchases suggests a portion of the transfer payments is used to purchase lottery tickets. In addition to providing information on the timing of lottery purchases, this study finds sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets increase during the period, while sales of Pick 5 and Pick 6 games do not, suggesting a general preference for the relatively higher probability, smaller jackpot games for the group.

Equality of opportunity and the expansion of higher education in the UK

Using nine waves of data from Understanding Society (UKHLS), we study the expansion of higher education in the UK and its consequences for levels of and inequalities in income, physical and mental health. University expansion was characterized by a large increase in the proportion of graduates, with higher rates of graduation among individuals from more advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. Having controlled for birth cohort and lifecycle effects, there is evidence of significant inequality of opportunity (IOp) in the actual outcomes. However, comparing actual outcomes with counterfactual projections, that freeze the likelihood of university graduation and the joint distribution of graduation and circumstances to the pre-1963 levels, we do not detect an impact of the expansion of higher education on IOp in income and only small reductions in IOp in physical and mental health.     

Illustrating the importance of Austrian business cycle theory: A reply to Murphy,Barnett, and Block; A call for quantitative study

Murphy et al. (2009) criticize Young’s (2005) test of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) using US industry-level quarterly job reallocation data and the federal funds rate as a monetary policy indicator. I argue that not only are Murphy et al.’s specific criticisms misguided; more importantly, they all but completely rule out the type of empirical study that Young (2005) advocates: specifically, one that (1) is quantitative and distinguishes between statistical and economic significance and (2) attempts to exploit a hypothesis that is both a prediction of ABCT and not a prediction of competing monetary theories of the cycle. I argue that empirical studies embodying (1) and (2) are critical to ABCT as a research program. Furthermore, I review the existing econometric studies of ABCT from the last 10 years and conclude that there is much room for improvement along these lines.     

AIDing contraception: HIV and recent trends in abortion

Using a difference-in-differences estimation framework and state-level data, we investigate the potential role of HIV/AIDS in contributing to declining abortion utilization in the United States. Our results suggest that the perceived risk of HIV contraction negatively affected unwanted pregnancies. Specifically, a 10% increase in HIV incidence is associated with 0.34–1.1% fewer abortions per live births, an effect that can account for at least one-tenth of the sharp decline in abortions observed from the early 1980s to mid-1990s.     

The Impact of Organizational Culture and Reshaping Capabilities on Change Implementation Success: The Mediating Role of Readiness for Change

abstract    It was hypothesized that employees' perceptions of an organizational culture strong in human relations values and open systems values would be associated with heightened levels of readiness for change which, in turn, would be predictive of change implementation success. Similarly, it was predicted that reshaping capabilities would lead to change implementation success, via its effects on employees' perceptions of readiness for change. Using a temporal research design, these propositions were tested for 67 employees working in a state government department who were about to undergo the implementation of a new end-user computing system in their workplace. Change implementation success was operationalized as user satisfaction and system usage. There was evidence to suggest that employees who perceived strong human relations values in their division at Time 1 reported higher levels of readiness for change at pre-implementation which, in turn, predicted system usage at Time 2. In addition, readiness for change mediated the relationship between reshaping capabilities and system usage. Analyses also revealed that pre-implementation levels of readiness for change exerted a positive main effect on employees' satisfaction with the system's accuracy, user friendliness, and formatting functions at post-implementation. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to the readiness for change literature, and in relation to the practical importance of developing positive change attitudes among employees if change initiatives are to be successful.