On the predictability of stock prices: A case for high and low prices

This paper contributes to technical analysis (TA) literature by showing that the high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable only on the basis of their past realizations. Moreover, using their forecasts as entry/exit signals can improve common TA trading strategies applied on US equity prices. We propose modeling high and low prices using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This model captures two fundamental patterns of high and low prices: their cointegrating relationship and the long-memory of their difference (i.e., the range), which is a measure of volatility.     

Certification response: A response to Lengnick-Hall and Aguinis

Lengnick-Hall and Aguinis (2011) proposed a research agenda for determining the real value of human resource certification. Their proposal draws upon research on assessment, prediction, and adopts a multi-level approach for suggesting several research propositions that could be tested as part of a theory-based assessment of HR certification. The present response focuses on some challenges, not acknowledged by Lengnick-Hall and Aguinis (2011), that might make their proposals more difficult to carry out. The basic idea of assessing the value of this, or any type of certification, however, is not questioned and is surely worth pursuing.     

The Paris financial market in the nineteenth century: complementarities and competition in microstructures1

This article sets out to explain why the Paris Bourse was highly successful in the nineteenth century in spite of the supposedly inefficient monopoly of the official market, the Parquet. The literature argues that the official monopoly was sidelined by a free, innovative market known as the Coulisse, but it fails to explain how the Coulisse emerged despite the monopoly and how the two markets persisted alongside each other during the entire century. We provide a detailed history of how these two markets emerged and interacted. The Parquet increasingly developed as a high‐end market, providing security, transparency, and effective settlement‐delivery to unsophisticated investors trading on the spot market. The Coulisse provided liquidity, immediacy, and opacity to professional investors trading mostly forward. In line with recent theoretical developments, we argue that the juxtaposition of heterogeneous organizations had important virtues for market participants, since it allowed the exchanges to specialize in different investors and services and made the exchanges complementary to each other. We demonstrate our claim by looking at both the formal rules and the actual functioning of the Parquet, drawing on its archives which we have recently classified.     

Distributive impact of structural change: Does environmental degradation matter?

Vulnerability to reduction of natural capital depends on defensive substitution possibilities that, in turn, are affected by the availability of other productive factors. However in several developing countries asset distribution tends to be highly skewed. Taking into account these elements, this paper proposes a model considering an economy polarized into two classes (the rich and the poor) and characterized by the following stylized facts: income and productivity of the rural poor is highly dependent on natural resources; labour remuneration in rural sector represents the opportunity cost for wage labour; the rich can partially substitute natural capital with physical capital and wage labour. In this context, agents differ for feed back mechanisms and interactions between their choices of production and environmental dynamics. Moreover environmental depletion may trigger economic transition, but the structural change is likely to result regressive.     

Defining spending reviews: a proposal for a taxonomy,with applications to Italy and the UK

After the 2008 global financial crisis, many governments introduced spending reviews (SRs). The paper provides a valuable definition of the concept of the SR by proposing a taxonomy of the main organizational and methodological aspects involved in the SR process. The paper identifies two different SR models, which feature alternative approaches to cutting back spending. The authors highlight some important considerations when looking to make sustainable and sensible cuts in spending.     

Creating Competitive Advantage for Calabrian-Made Products: The Influences of Culture and Price Perception

The purpose of this article is to investigate the influence of culture on consumers’ price perception of local products as well as the creation of competitive advantage for local firms. In particular, we analyze the locally produced goods of the Calabrian region in southern Italy. The research methodology is based on qualitative approach and quantitative approach. The results of the study offer important insights into consumers and firms. Since the firm has a better understanding about the role of culture and its effect on consumer perception, it will be able to adjust or improve its pricing policy and thus achieve consumer satisfaction and retention and gain competitive advantage to increasing sales. In this study we introduce specific cultural factors, such as the image and tradition of Magna Græcia culture. Although substantial research on the influence of cultural factors on consumer’s perception exists in the field of consumer research, this study further contributes to the literature by acting as a catalyst for future scientific enquiries in this important area.     

Optimal monetary policy for a small open economy

This paper focuses on the design of monetary policy rules for a small open economy. The model features optimizing behavior, general equilibrium and price stickiness. The real exchange rate is shown to affect the firm's real marginal cost, aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The welfare objective depends on the openness of the economy, and the optimal policy rule differs from that which obtains in a closed economy. The inflation versus output gap stabilization trade-off is caused by the real exchange rate. The implied optimal monetary policy regime is domestic inflation target coupled with controlled floating of the real exchange rate.     

Measurement of the Quality of Life for Economic Evaluation and the Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL) Mark 2 Instrument

Including the quality of life in the economic assessment of health and medical services is well established in the literature and a number of multi‐attribute utility (MAU) instruments are available which purport to measure health state utilities. One of these, the Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL) instrument was developed in Australia and uses Australian importance weights. The present article discusses some of the methodological problems encountered by existing instruments. It outlines the construction of the AQoL Mark 2 and the methodological innovations which have attempted to overcome some of these problems. Technical and other details may be obtained in Richardson et al. (2003a, 2003b, 2003c) and Peacock et al. (2003). These papers may be accessed from the Health Economics Unit web site at 〈 http://heu.buseco.monash.edu.au 〉.     

Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?

Recent empirical analyses on different datasets have revealed a common exponential behavior in the shape of the probability density of the corporate growth rates. We present new evidence on this topic from the Italian Manufacturing Industry and propose a very simple mechanism that, under rather general assumptions, provides a robust explanation for the observed regularities.