An Empirical Investigation into the Excessive-Choice Effect

Recent marketing and psychological studies have shown that more choice does not always benefit consumers. This excessive-choice effect (ECE) is examined empirically using food items in four experiments. The first experiment investigates whether people would voluntarily reduce their choice-set size. The second seeks to replicate previous experimental results. The third and fourth experiments employ nonhypothetical Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) soda auctions and hypothetical ground beef choice experiments to further detect the prevalence of the ECE in alternative settings and explore the role of personality in decision tasks. Results suggest the ECE exists, but is less prevalent than previous studies suggest.     

Complementarity and the Measurement of Individual Risk Tradeoffs: Accounting for Quantity and Quality of Life Effects

This paper considers the factors responsible for differences with age in estimates of the wage compensation an individual requires to accept increased occupational fatality risk. We derive a relationship between the value of a statistical life (VSL) and the degree of complementarity between consumption and labor supplied when health status serves as a potential source of variation in this relationship. Our empirical analysis finds that variations in an individual’s health status or quality of life and anticipated longevity threats lead to significant differences in the estimated wage/risk tradeoffs. We describe how extensions to the specification of hedonic wage models, including measures for quality of life and anticipated longevity threats, help to explain the diversity in past studies examining how the estimated wage–risk tradeoff changes with age.      

扁平证券市场线和融资限制——中国股票市场的实证检验

资本资产定价模型（CAPM)在国际金融市场的实证检验结果往往呈现扁平证券市场线现象。一些学者认为融资限制是该现象的产生原因。本文旨在研究扁平证券市场线现象是否存在于中国股市,同时分析融资限制对中国股市证券市场线的影响。本文采用投资组合分析法对A股主板市场进行实证检验。本文研究发现：（1)扁平的证券市场线现象同样存在于中国股票市场中;（2)在中国股票市场中,融资限制与证券市场线的斜率呈负相关,与截距呈正相关,这符合融资限制理论;（3)以上两点发现同样存在于多因子定价模型中,这表明本文研究结果具有稳健性。       

Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies Toward Remote Sensing

Earlier experimental evidence indicates that some decision makers under-invest in information when it is costly. This insight is applied to the cost–benefit analysis of the provision of data obtained by satellites. In fields like agriculture, remotely sensed information of great precision can be provided to additional farmers at minimal extra costs if a service for farmers with similar information needs is set up. Here, the tendency to under-invest in information asks for creative solutions by the private sector: bankers may work together with rational producers in setting up the information service and promoting it. However, if producers financial resources are insufficient, public intervention, in the form of a free information service may be necessary.The author would like to thank an anonymous referee, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, Sean Flynn, Daniel Heller, and Carlos Lenz and participants of the Lisbon Conference of the International Atlantic Economic Society, particularly Asatoshi Maeshiro, for helpful comments.     

Taxation and the stock market valuation of capital gains and dividends: Theory and emphirical results

Dividends seem to be more heavily taxed than capital gains. Why then do corporations pay dividends rather than repurchasing shares or retaining earnings? Either corporations are not acting in the interests of shareholders, or else shareholders desire dividends sufficiently for nontax reasons to offset the tax effect.In this paper, we measure the relative valuation of dividends and capital gains in the stock market, using a variant of the capital asset pricing model. We find that dividends are not valued differently systematically from capital gains. This finding is consistent with share price maximization by firms but inconsistent with the fact that most shareholderspay a heavier tax on dividends.We also show that the relative value of dividends provides an indirect measure of a marginal Tobin's q. The measured value of dividends relative to capital gains tends to be higher during prosperous periods, as is consistent with this interpretation. We hope that this time series on a marginal Tobin's q will prove to be useful in forecasting the rate of investment.     

Income Level and Inflation Strain in the United States: 1971–1975

A bstract . Estimates of net inflationary effects in the United States from 1971 to 1975 are attempted by income level. The central concept is inflation strain , or the difference between the percentage change in prices and incomes as a percentage of change in incomes. Trends in prices are derived from United States Bureau of Labor Statistics data on lower and higher family budgets , admittedly subject to significant error, but the best we have. Equivalent income trends are estimated from data reported in the P-60 series of the United States Bureau of the Census. Two findings are indicated. The first is that both higher and lower budget families experienced inflation strain, although the strain, of course, was substantially greater for lower budget families. The second finding is that the primary source of strain for the lower budget families was food , whereas the primary source of strain for the higher budget family was taxes , both income and Social Security taxes. The richer are getting poorer more slowly than the poor. Limitations of the techniques and data are analyzed.     

Take a risk: Preferring prevention over control of biological invaders

Scientists have argued that invasive species can be managed most cost effectively with greater investments in prevention. Further, under ideas like the precautionary principle it is reasonable to expect that a cautious manager would use more prevention relative to control because it keeps more invaders out. Yet, this is not typically done. In many cases, private and public resources are invested primarily to control existing invaders rather than to prevent new invasions. Managers frequently wait until after invaders have arrived and then scramble to limit the damages. We believe these paradoxical decisions can be understood by recognizing the link between typical human preferences for risk bearing and the technology of risk reduction. We demonstrate quantitatively how managers perceived to be cautious or averse to risk tend to shy away from prevention relative to control. This counterintuitive result arises because control is a safer choice than prevention because its productivity is relatively less risky: it works to remove existing invaders from the system. In contrast, the productivity of prevention is more uncertain because prevention only reduces the chance of invasion, it does not eliminate it, and invasion may not occur even in the absence of prevention. Managers' averse to risk will inherently avoid as much uncertainty as possible, whether the source of uncertainty regards ecological outcomes or economic productivity. Implications for environmental decision making are clear. In invasive species management, if managers act as though they are risk averse, their caution can backfire when it leads to more control rather than prevention. The social consequences of this choice are a greater probability of future invasions and lower social welfare. Our results suggest that social welfare is highest when managers were willing to “take a risk” with prevention.     

Cooperative and noncooperative protection against transferable and filterable externalities

Given self-protection from an undesirable environmental externality, we examine, under several conditions, the efficiency properties of cooperative and noncooperative behavior. We demonstrate that if self-protection can transfer the externality to another agent, then noncooperative behavior will lead to overprotection. If self-protection filters or dilutes the externality, then noncooperation leads to underprotection. In addition, overprotection will worsen if an agent with more relative power is allowed a first-mover advantage or if the damage function is elastic and transferability is uncertain. Finally, a reduction in uncertainty about transferability will accentuate overprotection if the damage function is inelastic. Our results suggest that coordination of protection activities among agents will enhance the overall gains from environmental policy in the European Single Internal Market of 1992. Coordination minimizes the costs of environmental protection, thereby reducing the public credibility of its foes.