Developing and validating an instrument for measuring managers’ attitudes toward older workers

Three studies were carried out to develop and validate an instrument for measuring managers’ attitudes toward older workers. In the first study we explore (a) managers’ attitudes toward older workers, and (b) retirees’ perceptions about their last experiences before retirement. In the second study, 51 items emerging from the first study and from the literature were developed. The corresponding questionnaire was then applied to a sample of 224 Portuguese managers who were also invited to make decisions in three scenarios involving younger and older workers. The third study replicated the second one with a sample of 249 Brazilian managers. The main findings are: (a) five types of managers’ attitudes toward older workers were identified (adaptability, value of older workers’ competencies, organizational conscientiousness, social capital/generosity and performance); (b) these attitudes predict how managers select older vs. younger workers in hiring and selecting employees to participate in training; (c) the empirical patterns identified in the Portuguese and Brazilian samples are similar; (d) in spite of recognizing positive qualities in older workers, managers discriminate against them; (e) managers develop different attitudinal profiles toward older workers, which has consequences for how they make decisions about those workers.     

A local maximum likelihood estimator for Poisson regression

A local maximum likelihood estimator based on Poisson regression is presented as well as its bias, variance and asymptotic distribution. This semiparametric estimator is intended to be an alternative to the Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated Poisson regression models that does not depend on regularity conditions and model specification accuracy. Some simulation results are presented. The use of the local maximum likelihood procedure is illustrated on one example from the literature. This procedure is found to perform well. This research was partially supported by Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and PRODEP III.     

A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case

The measurement of market risk poses major challenges to researchers and different economic agents. On one hand, it is by now widely recognized that risk varies over time. On the other hand, the risk profile of an investor, in terms of investment horizon, makes it crucial to also assess risk at the frequency level. We propose a novel approach to measuring market risk based on the continuous wavelet transform. Risk is allowed to vary both through time and at the frequency level within a unified framework. In particular, we derive the wavelet counterparts of well-known measures of risk. One is thereby able to assess total risk, systematic risk and the importance of systematic risk to total risk in the time-frequency space. To illustrate the method we consider the emerging markets case over the last twenty years, finding noteworthy heterogeneity across frequencies and over time, which highlights the usefulness of the wavelet approach.     

Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Time‐Frequency View

This article provides new insights on the relationship between money growth and inflation in the euro area over the last 40 years. This highly relevant link for the European Central Bank monetary policy strategy is assessed using wavelet analysis. The findings indicate a stronger link between inflation and money growth at low frequencies over the whole sample period. At the typical business cycle frequency range the link is only present until the beginning of the 1980s. Moreover, there seems to be a recent deterioration of the leading properties of money growth with respect to inflation in the euro area.     

Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use logit models for the period 1991–2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue-based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful. JEL no. C25, E62, H62     

A Quantile Approach to Identify Factors Promoting Renewable Energy in European Countries

This paper analyses the impact of several factors on the use of renewable energy sources in a set of European Union countries, by applying a quantile regression approach. We find that different factors are effective for different levels of renewable energy commitment and the magnitudes of some effects evolve in accordance with the level of renewable energy sources used. Consequently, some policies that do not take into account the different stages could carry different effects. The results suggest that the lobbying effect of the established industries hampers the development of renewable sources, and that this effect is greater for lower initial level of renewable energy use. The results reveal that environmental concerns have not yet achieved enough pressure to stimulate major developments on renewables. We include two new drivers, geographic area and European Union Directive 2001/77/EC. That Directive was effective in signaling the commitment to renewables, namely for countries with lower renewables use.     

Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis

We use a threshold VAR analysis to study the linkages between changes in the debt ratio, economic activity and financial stress within different financial regimes. We use quarterly data for the US, the UK, Germany and Italy, for the period 1980:4–2014:1, encompassing macro, fiscal and financial variables, and use nonlinear impulse responses allowing for endogenous regime-switches in response to structural shocks. The results show that output reacts mostly positively to an increase in the debt ratio in both financial stress regimes; however, the differences in estimated multipliers across regimes are relatively small. Furthermore, a financial stress shock has a negative effect on output and worsens the fiscal situation. The large time-variation and the estimated nonlinear impulse responses suggest that the size of the fiscal multipliers was higher than average in the 2008–2009 crisis.     

Economic performance,government size,and institutional quality

This paper studies the empirical link between government size, institutions and economic activity using a panel of 140 countries over 40 years. Our results, robust under different econometric techniques, show mostly a negative effect of government size on output, while institutional quality has generally a positive impact. Moreover, the detrimental effect of government size on economic activity is stronger the lower institutional quality, and the positive effect of institutional quality on output increases with smaller government sizes.     

Markups’ cyclical behaviour: the role of demand and supply shocks

We assess how demand and supply shocks (identified via the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural vector autoregression approach) in 14 OECD countries affect markups. We find that individual responses of markups to demand shocks push down the markup for most countries (confirmed in the panel analysis). On the other hand, a supply shock has a more mixed effect.     

Residents' perceptions of tourism impacts in Guimarães (Portugal): a cluster analysis

In this investigation, a cluster analysis was used to separate Guimarães (Portugal) residents into clusters according to their perceptions of the impacts of tourism development. This approach is uncommonly applied to Portugal data and is even rarer for world heritage sites. The world heritage designation is believed to make an area more attractive to tourists. The clustering procedure analysed 400 data observations from a Guimarães resident survey and revealed the existence of three clusters: the Sceptics, the Moderately Optimistic and the Enthusiasts. The results were consistent with the empirical literature's results, with the emergent nature of the destination found to be relevant. The fact that tourism is relatively recent in this destination has its major reflex in the devaluation by most of the residents of the negative impacts of tourism development.