The Environmental Benefits of Organic Wine: Exploring Consumer Willingness-to-Pay Premiums?

Consumers and the producers have shown interest in organics, but there exist gaps in their common interest. Producers require premiums for their products based on the peculiarity of their production circumstances and the perceived benefits inherent in their products. Predicting consumer willingness to pay a premium for the environmental benefits of organics (WTPe) is a challenge and is of interest in this study. The contingent valuation method was used to gather information on WTPe from a sample that yielded 2,099 surveys. The econometric test ordered probit regression and other analyses were carried out. On average, respondents indicated WTP 23% premium. The proposed hypotheses were tested, and all were accepted except social demographic variables that presented a mixed outcome. The results have implications for consumer sensitization and enlightenment programs of the wine industry, wine market segmentation, and government’s climate change policy. This study is exploratory and has presented a snapshot scenario. Confirmatory and longitudinal studies are recommended to validate this study’s outcomes.     

Bias in estimates of discrimination and default in mortgage lending: The effects of simultaneity and self-selection

The common practices of estimating single-equation models of mortgage rejection to test for discrimination in mortgage markets or single-equation ex ante mortgage default equations to validate underwriting criteria produce biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This is due to problems of simultaneous equations bias which arise because, in a world of imperfect information, mortgage terms are not exogenous to the rejection or default decision. In addition, mortgage default estimates are also subject to selection bias. Monte Carlo experiments are used to study the nature and extent of likely bias in single-equation estimation results. We find that rejection equation estimates indicate discrimination when none exists and that estimated coefficients of mortgage terms, such as the loan-to-value ratio, are also subject to significant bias in both rejection and default equations.     

The impact of bond rating changes on corporate bond prices: New evidence from the over-the-counter market

I study the information content of bond ratings changes using daily corporate bond data from TRACE. Abnormal bond returns over a two-day event window that includes the downgrade (upgrade) are negative (positive) and statistically significant, although the reaction to upgrades is economically small. Monthly abnormal bond returns around downgrades and upgrades are statistically significant but overstate the magnitude of the reaction relative to two-day abnormal returns. Unlike the bond market, the stock market reaction to upgrades is statistically insignificant. Evidence suggests that the differing inferences on the effect of upgrades in the two markets can be attributed to wealth transfer effects rather than relative market inefficiencies. In the cross-section, the bond market response is stronger for rating changes that appear more surprising, rating changes of lower rated firms, and upgrades that move the firm from speculative grade to investment grade.     

Expectations in Austrian Business Cycle Theory: An Application of the Prisoner's Dilemma

The standard account of Austrian Business Cycle theory posits that central bank manipulations of interest rates fool bankers and investors into believing that there has been an increase in the real supply of loanable funds available for capital investment. However, reliance on foolishness ignores the entrepreneurial emphasis within the Austrian tradition and fails to produce the strongest possible case for Austrian Business Cycle theory. We use the prisoner's dilemma framework to model the profit maximizing behavior of bankers and the investors under uncertainty when the market rate of interest is below the underlying rate of time preference.     

Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price

Baumeister and Kilian (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(3), 338–351) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real‐time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil as a global price benchmark, we extend consideration to the North Sea‐based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017:12. We model the oil price futures curve using a factor‐based Nelson–Siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data. We find that the combined forecasts for Brent are as effective as for other oil price measures. The extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by Baumeister and Kilian yields similar results to those reported in their paper. Also, the futures‐based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons.     

Connecting ‘talent’ meanings and multi-level context: a discursive approach

Abstract

Through an in-depth, multilevel case study of a professional services firm, this paper illuminates what stakeholders mean when they use the term ‘talent’. The paper underlines how various contextual factors including, workforce composition, ownership structures and individual perceptions influence talent meanings within an organisation. Our analysis of talent phenomena at a multiplicity of levels illustrates that it is not only about the words, phrases, and terms employed when talking about talent that requires examination. There is a need to deliberate on the meanings that underpin the talk because while stakeholders may talk the same way they may mean different things. The paper makes a key theoretical contribution through specific recognition of the importance of thoughtful reflection of how stakeholders discursively construct meanings because ‘talent’ is a concept, which requires translation via talk to become meaningful within the material world and these meanings are influenced by context. Thus, we cannot infer, that talent meanings radiate within organisations, nor across organisational boundaries, industries or countries because discourses arise and materialise within specific contexts and we must acknowledge that talent discourses can not be removed from the context in which they operate.     

ROBUST BOUNDS FOR FORWARD START OPTIONS

We consider the problem of finding a model‐free upper bound on the price of a forward start straddle with payoff . The bound depends on the prices of vanilla call and put options with maturities T₁ and T₂ , but does not rely on any modeling assumptions concerning the dynamics of the underlying. The bound can be enforced by a super‐replicating strategy involving puts, calls, and a forward transaction. We find an upper bound, and a model which is consistent with T₁ and T₂ vanilla option prices for which the model‐based price of the straddle is equal to the upper bound. This proves that the bound is best possible. For lognormal marginals we show that the upper bound is at most 30% higher than the Black–Scholes price. The problem can be recast as finding the solution to a Skorokhod embedding problem with nontrivial initial law so as to maximize .