The economic impact of tourism in developing countries

The paper examines the costs and benefits brought by tourism to the economies of developing countries. The criteria for decision making are discussed and the main policy implications are mentioned. The paper concludes with a suggested model for evaluating the effects of specific projects within the framework of a sectoral analysis of an economy.     

Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities: Integrating Optimal Call and Empirical Models of Prepayment

Residential mortgage borrowers frequently appear to behave suboptimally with respect to their mortgage prepayment options. Many borrowers fail to exercise even well-into-the-money options while others prepay when the call option is out-of-the-money. To account for these apparently suboptimal prepayments, the recent trend in mortgage-backed securities research has been away from optimal call valuation models, in which the decision to exercise is determined endoge-nously, in favor of models in which prepayment behavior is exogenously specified based on empirical estimation. This paper develops a rational model of mortgage prepayment which incorporates both types of "non-optimal" prepayment and retains endogenous call. This enables the model to disentangle and compare the separate effects of the interest rate call, impeded by transaction costs, and of non-interest-rate driven prepayment. In addition, by recognizing heterogenous borrower transaction costs, the model presents a way to account more precisely for the varying prepayment lags associated with well-into-the-money call options and to account for the phenomenon of "burnout" within a mortgage pool. The paper includes an empirical test of the unbiasedness of the integrated pricing model by comparing simulated prices from our theoretical model to observed prices on traded Fannie Mae and GNMA securities.     

The Nineteenth-Century Allotment: Half an Acre and a Row

By taking East Anglia as a regional case study this article places the allotment in a social and parochial context. It therefore challenges some of Moselle's assumptions and economic reductionist conclusions by arguing that landlords and clergymen were the main providers and, as a consequence, this created farmer antipathy. It maintains that issues relating to paternalism, social control, the gift relationship and, most importantly, rural unrest need to be examined in order to understand the conflicting attitudes of labourers, farmers, and landlords.     

Rewrites of an Expert System—Lessons Learned

One component of the 1986 Tax Law was to require taxpayers to file information returns on magnetic media if the quantity to be filed was sufficiently large. A waiver from this filing requirement was possible under hardship and other criteria, and could be obtained by filing a form with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Initially, the processing of waiver requests was accomplished manually by several relatively high-level analytical personnel. The IRS's Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (AI Lab) created an Expert System to automate the process. An initial prototype was developed in OPS5+, an AI language, and the system was used on all waiver requests for Forms 1099 for Tax Year 1987, demonstrating feasibility and capability. The system was expanded in the following year, and used on waiver requests for all form types. For Tax Year 1989 the system was rewritten in LEVEL5, so that it could be more easily maintained by in-house personnel. However, implementation problems forced a rapid rewrite, using CLIPPER, a dBase III+ compiler language. This version was subsequently used for all waiver requests for Tax Years 1989 and 1990. Presently, one clerical person can handle all of the waivers. This paper deals with the reasons and ramifications of this language-shell-language transition.     

The value of multipliers and their policy implications

This paper examines the nature of tourism multipliers, their origins and evolution, their misuse, their strengths, weaknesses and limitations and finally their value for policymaking and planning.     

Determinants of Location for General Purpose Office Firms within Medium Size Cities*

This study examines determinants of the downtown/non-downtown location choice for general purpose rental office users. It presents a model of location choice which accounts for linkages, personnel commuting costs and location of market centroid. It fits the model to survey data on office space usage, distinguishing between market oriented and non-market oriented firms. The study finds that market oriented firms are primarily sensitive to market location, while non-market oriented firms are more sensitive to linkages and personnel commuting costs. It also finds that linkages play a limited role in the location decisions even for non-market oriented offices because, in the medium size cities studied, few firms are linkage intensive.