Ambiguity and risk factors in bank stocks

The determinants of banks' cost of equity are not well understood. We depart from prior work assuming rational expectations and instead explore the impact of Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity on bank stocks. We test a large set of asset pricing models and find that investors' lack of confidence in both the drift and correlation structure driving bank stock returns affects banks' cost of capital. We also investigate the economic relation among ambiguity, market liquidity, and banks' capital shortfall, which reveals the transmission channels through which ambiguity may increase the probability of a systemic crisis. Our findings have implications for macroprudential policy.     

THE PURE CHARACTERISTICS DEMAND MODEL*

In this article, we consider a class of discrete choice models in which consumers care about a finite set of product characteristics. These models have been used extensively in the theoretical literature on product differentiation and the goal of this article is to translate them into a form that is useful for empirical work. Most recent econometric applications of discrete choice models implicitly let the dimension of the characteristic space increase with the number of products (they have “tastes for products”). The two models have different theoretical properties, and these, in turn, can have quite pronounced implications for both substitution patterns and for the welfare impacts of changes in the number and characteristics of the goods marketed. After developing those properties, we provide alternative algorithms for estimating the parameters of the pure characteristic model and compare their properties to those of the algorithm for estimating the model with tastes for products. We conclude with a series of Monte Carlo results. These are designed to illustrate: (i) the computational properties of the alternative algorithms for computing the pure characteristic model, and (ii) the differences in the implications of the pure characteristic model from the models with tastes for products.     

“Minding Our Business”: What the United States Government has done and can do to Ensure that U.S. Multinationals Act Responsibly in Foreign Markets

The United States Government does not mandate that US based firms follow US social and environmental law in foreign markets. However, because many developing countries do not have strong human rights, labor, and environmental laws, many multinationals have adopted voluntary corporate responsibility initiatives to self-regulate their overseas social and environmental practices. This article argues that voluntary actions, while important, are insufficient to address the magnitude of problems companies confront as they operate in developing countries where governance is often inadequate. The United States can do more to ensure that its multinationals act responsibly everywhere they operate. First, policymakers should define the social and environmental responsibilities of global companies. They must consistently make their expectations for global business clear – and underscore that this objective can often be accomplished without mandates. Second, the US should closely examine the policies that undermine global Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and address the many conflicting signals sent by policymakers. Third, the President should make the US government a CSR model by examining how to use its purchasing power to promote human rights. Finally, the US government should require pension funds to report on the social and environmental consequences of their investments. In these ways, Americans can mind our business – and thus make sure that US based firms do not undermine social and environmental progress when they operate in the developing world. Susan Aaronson is Senior Fellow and Director of Globalization Studies at the Kenan Institute Washington Center, an arm of the Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill. Her scholarly research focuses on international investment and social responsibility issues. Aaronson devised and directed a study, funded by the Ford, UN and Levi Strauss Foundations, that examined how U.S. public policies can promote or undermine global corporate social responsibility. She is now beginning a Levi-Strauss funded project on trade and human rights. Aaronson is a frequent speaker on public understanding of globalization issues and the author of four books on globalization including, Taking Trade to the Streets: The Lost History of Public Efforts to Shape Globalization (Michigan: 2001).     

Auditor Fees and Fraud Firms

The issue of whether auditor fees affect auditor independence has been extensively debated by regulators, investors, investment professionals, auditors, and researchers. The revised Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requirements that resulted from the implementation of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (2002) limit nonaudit services (NAS) and mandate NAS fee disclosure. The SEC's requirements are based on the argument that auditor independence could be impaired—and hence audit quality may be reduced—when auditors become economically dependent on their clients or audit their own work. Economic bonding leads to reduced independence, which can lead to reduced audit quality. We study a sample of firms sanctioned by the SEC for fraudulent financial reporting in Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (SEC‐sanctioned fraud firms) and examine whether there is a relationship between auditor fee variables and the likelihood of being sanctioned by the SEC for fraud. We use SEC sanction as a measure of audit quality that has not previously been used in the auditor fee literature and is more precise than some of the other proxies used for flawed financial/auditor reporting. We find, in univariate tests, that fraud firms paid significantly higher (total, audit, and NAS) fees. However, in multivariate tests, when controlling for other fraud determinants and endogeneity among the fraud, NAS, and audit fee variables, we find that while NAS fees and total fees are positively and significantly related to the likelihood of being sanctioned by the SEC for fraud, audit fees are not. These findings suggest that higher NAS fees may cause economic bonding, thereby leading to reduced audit quality. Our findings of significantly higher NAS fees and total fees in fraud firms hold after controlling for latent size effects and other rigorous testing. These results contribute to the literature that examines the SEC's concerns regarding NAS and can be used by policy makers for additional consideration.     

On the fairness of random procedures

We consider procedures that use randomness to make a decision that involves several individuals. We asked subjects to compare the fairness of six pairs of seemingly equivalent procedures. We propose a classification of subjects into two categories: those who are “emotional” in the sense that they exhibit a systematic ranking of procedures on the basis of intuitive notions of fairness, and those who are “consequentialists” in the sense that they systematically view each pair of procedures as being equally fair. According to this classification, about 30% of the subjects are emotional while 31% are consequentialists.     

Initial endowments and economic reform in 27 post-socialist countries

This study explores how initial endowments at the start of transition have shaped reform outcomes and reform trajectories in 27 former communist countries in Europe and Central Asia. Countries of the former Russian Empire that had a large resources sector at the start of transition underperformed other countries in terms of the speed and the depth of economic reforms. The effect is particularly strong for privatization, enterprise restructuring and competition policy. Within country, Ottoman or Russian provinces that had a large natural resources sector in 1989 have a lower share of entrepreneurs and of small and medium sized enterprises today and also experience endemic corruption. Our results indicate that the propensity, or ability, of special interest groups to capture the reform process that would erode their rents were facilitated by the quality of institutions whose foundations go back centuries; and that the effects on the local economy are real.     

Mitigating Negative Water Quality and Quality Externalities by Joint Management of Adjacent Aquifiers

Groundwater basins are usually separated into aquifers that are hydrologically interrelated. This interrelation may take the form of water movement from one aquifer to another. When differentials in water quality exist, pumping from one of the aquifers can cause water movement that may be associated with degradation of its quality. A management policy that considers this interrelation may be preferable to an independent management of each aquifer. This paper develops a dynamic optimal control model to evaluate joint versus independent management. The optimal joint pumping management, in which two adjacent aquifers of different water qualities are interrelated, is analyzed and compared to independent aquifer pumping, and the situations where joint management is not required are identified. Policy implications are then derived and discussed. Finally, the theoretical model is applied to a case of interrelated aquifers in southern Israel. The empirical model identifies conditions (interest rate, agricultural fresh water supply rainfall recharge, price of surface water, drinking water quality standards) under which a joint policy is preferable. The empirical results confirm the theoretical ones.     

The impact of climate change on China's agriculture

This article examines how expected changes in climate are likely to affect agriculture in China. The effects of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues are analyzed using cross-sectional data consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results suggest that global warming is likely to be harmful to rainfed farms but beneficial to irrigated farms. The net impacts will be only mildly harmful at first, but the damages will grow over time. The impacts also vary by region. Farms in the Southeast will only be mildly affected but farms in the Northeast and Northwest will bear the largest damages. However, the study does not capture the indirect effects on farms of possible changes in water flow, which may be important in China.     

Does consumption buy happiness? Evidence from the United States

We examine the association between various components of consumption expenditure and happiness in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative sample of older Americans. We find that only one component of consumption is positively related to happiness—leisure consumption. In contrast, consumption of durables, charity, personal care, food, health care, vehicles, and housing are not significantly associated with happiness. Second, we find that leisure consumption is associated with higher levels of happiness partially through its effect on social connectedness, as indexed by measures of loneliness and embeddedness in social networks. On one hand, these results counter the conventional wisdom that “material goods can’t buy happiness.” One the other hand, they underscore the importance of social goods and social connectedness in the production of happiness.     

Super‐replication in fully incomplete markets

In this work, we introduce the notion of fully incomplete markets. We prove that for these markets, the super‐replication price coincides with the model‐free super‐replication price. Namely, the knowledge of the model does not reduce the super‐replication price. We provide two families of fully incomplete models: stochastic volatility models and rough volatility models. Moreover, we give several computational examples. Our approach is purely probabilistic.