Analyst recommendations and the implied cost of equity

We investigate the relation between analyst recommendations and the cost of equity implied by current stock price and earnings forecasts. Contrary to expectations, previous-year recommendation upgrades are associated with increases in the current cost of equity; and past increases in the cost of equity are associated with current recommendation downgrades. Furthermore, changes in the implied cost of equity and changes in analyst recommendations jointly explain as much as 31% of the variation in 1-year holding period returns, where most of the variation (28%) is explained by the implied cost of equity alone. We document that when forming recommendations, analysts underestimate the role of the cost of equity.     

The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: Evidence from the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany

This paper investigates the German car scrappage program, focusing on the incidence of the premium. We ask how much of the €2500 ($3500) buyer subsidy is actually captured by the demand side. More precisely, we analyze the program’s impact on different car segments, allowing for heterogeneity in incidence at different points in the vehicle price distribution. Using a unique microtransaction data set, we find that the incidence of the subsidy strongly and significantly varies across price segments. Subsidized buyers of cheap cars paid a little more than comparable buyers who did not receive the subsidy, indicating incidence amounts slightly below 100 %. For more expensive vehicles, subsidized buyers were granted large extra discounts on top of the government premium, translating into incidence amounts considerably greater than 100 %. Taken together, this results in an aggregate incidence amount of up to plus €350 million, suggesting that the positive effect for expensive cars overcompensates the negative effect for small cars.     

Managing knowledge: changing ways of wealth creation

R&D will have to be at the core of enterprises which expect to prosper in the new economy. Investors now realise there is a link between R&D investment and long-term growth, so share prices are boosted for companies which know how to extract value from R&D spending. The IT and pharmaceutical industries are probably the leaders in new ways of managing knowledge more effectively.     

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF T–G RIDGE MODEL

Ridge type analysis of the Theil–Goldberger mixed model, considered earlier by Saxena and Bhatta–charya (1983) for the non–Bayesian set–up, is discussed from the Bayesian view–point when a has a closed prior and the loss–function being squared error.     

Where Do Australians Invest?

In this article, we analyse the geography of Australia's international portfolio investment using the International Monetary Fund's Co‐ordinated Portfolio Investment Survey dataset. Preliminary results suggest that Australia's external holdings of equity and debt as a percentage of national income almost doubled between 1997 and 2001. However, Australia's international investment position as a percentage of national income is one of the lowest amongst the major OECD countries. In 2001 approximately two‐thirds of Australia's total investments were in the United States and the United Kingdom. By contrast Australia's trade share (exports plus imports as a percentage of Australia's total world trade) with these countries was approximately 20 per cent in the same year. The major determinants of Australia's geographical allocation of portfolio investment indicate a broad correspondence between stock market capitalisation of destination countries and the allocation of Australian financial investments but with some deviations from that baseline, where the deviations are correlated with Australian trade patterns.     

Exploring factors influencing US millennial consumers’ use of tap-and-go payment technology

ABSTRACT

Although mobile payment (MP) represents a possibility for traditional brick-and-mortar US retailers to enhance the quality of customer service, mobile payment adoption in the US has lagged, with research regarding this phenomenon in the US seemingly in its embryonic stage. The current study contributes to the literature on mobile payment adoption in the US by investigating the factors on US millennial consumers’ use of mobile payment technology, operationalized in the study as tap-and-go payment systems. The study mirrors a study of the acceptance of mobile shopping technology among German consumers, with some extension. The study incorporated mobile payment risk perception, system trust, and socio-cultural influence into an extended technology acceptance model (TAM) to explore this issue. Results from a survey conducted among 357 US Millennials indicate that perceived ease of use of MP (PEOUMP); perceived usefulness (PUMP); and risk perception all influence attitude toward mobile payment (AttMP). System trust, socio-cultural influence, and AttMP all influence MP use intention. The paper discussed the limitations of the study and future research directions.