Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows

We investigate a proxy for monthly shifts between bond funds and equity funds in the USA: aggregate net exchanges of equity funds. This measure (which is negatively related to changes in VIX) is positively contemporaneously correlated with aggregate stock market excess returns: One standard deviation of net exchanges is related to 1.95% of market excess return. Our main new finding is that 85% (all) of the contemporaneous relation is reversed within four (ten) months. The effect is stronger in smaller stocks and in growth stocks. These findings support the notion of “noise” in aggregate market prices induced by investor sentiment.     

Strategic groupings as competitive benchmarks for formulating future competitive strategy: A modelling approach

Previous studies on strategic groups have examined issues such as the identification of strategic groups, the relationship between strategic groups structure and industry performance, and the movement of strategic groups over time. In contrast to previous studies, this paper uses the analytical concepts of game theory to explore the question of what strategic groups will exist in the future. These benchmark (future) strategic groups represent long-run strategic positions available within an industry and thus reference points for firms in developing sustainable competitive strategies. The benchmark strategic groups are discussed and comments are offered to illustrate how firms can use the benchmark information to redirect their strategic positions in order to survive and remain competitive in the long run.     

Understanding the Inputs into Innovation: Do Cities Substitute for Internal Firm Resources?

We examine whether there is a trade-off between employing internal (firm) resources and purchased external (local) resources in process innovation. We draw on a rich dataset of Internet investments by 86,879 US establishments to examine decisions to invest in advanced Internet technology. We show that the marginal contribution of internal resources is greater outside of a major urban area than inside one. Agglomeration is less important for firms with highly capable IT workers. When firms invest in innovative processes they act as if resources available in cities are partial substitutes for both establishment-level and firm-level internal resources.     

Absenteeism: A comparison of incentives in alternative organizations

This paper uses a game-theoretic model to analyze the incentives workers may have to play “hookey” from work given that there is an outwardly unobservable probability of being sick and thus being unable to work. We compare incentives and equilibria in labor-managed firms (LMFs) and in profit-maximizing firms (PMFs), both in single-period and repeated games. We show, among other things, that in an egalitarian LMF there are circumstances under which members will not work when it is optimal to work, while the PMF suffers from the opposite problem; daily paid workers will work even when it would be better if they did not.     

ON THE REVISITED ILLYRIAN MODEL AND PERVERSITY: THE CASE OF THE LONG-RUN1

The modified theory of the Illyrian firm was developed, in part, to correct a perversity exhibited by the traditional theory of the Illyrian firm — that output rises in response to a fall in output price or a rise in fixed costs. We show that while this revised model has solved the problem for the short-run the problem remains in the long-run, and this long-run perversity may have important policy implications for the short-run as well. We also show that the under-production problem associated with the traditional LMF is mitigated (and perhaps even reversed) in the modified LMF.     

How do firms make money selling digital goods online?

We review research on revenue models used by online firms who offer digital goods. Such goods are non-rival, have near zero marginal cost of production and distribution, low marginal cost of consumer search, and low transaction costs. Additionally, firms can easily observe and measure consumer behavior. We start by asking what consumers can offer in exchange for digital goods. We suggest that consumers can offer their money, personal information, or time. Firms, in turn, can generate revenue by selling digital content, brokering consumer information, or showing advertising. We discuss the firm’s trade-off in choosing between the different revenue streams, such as offering paid content or free content while relying on advertising revenues. We then turn to specific challenges firms face when choosing a revenue model based on either content, information, or advertising. Additionally, we discuss nascent revenue models that combine different revenue streams such as crowdfunding (content and information) or blogs (information and advertising). We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for future research including implications for firms’ revenue models from the increasing importance of the mobile Internet.     

A model of decision making in an ecologically realistic environment: Relative comparison and the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives

Models of behavior in a variety of areas often assume that decision-makers will adhere to the axioms of economic rationality. This requires that outcomes can be assigned objective values by stable evaluation frameworks. Yet both human and animal behavior is often not economically rational. Instead relative comparison of options is often used to assess value. We are interested in conditions that might lead natural selection to favor relative comparison of options over behavior that is consistent with the axioms of rationality. We compare an economically rational strategy with a relative comparison strategy (trade-off contrast). We model these strategies in a simple environment where decisions are multi-period; there is stochastic fluctuation in the choices available at any given time; and uncertainty about what choices will be available in the future. We investigate five levels of interaction between the attributes of the options that range from perfect complementarity to perfect substitutability. Our results show that, for some of the parameter space, a non-rational strategy achieved higher fitness than an economically rational strategy and that these differences were large enough to be biologically significant.