State lotteries and externalities to their participants

The degree of participation in state lotteries can either increase or decrease expected returns. It is theoretically possible for unfair bets to become more than fair as participation in lotteries changes. In addition, the purchase of every combination of numbers can be more than a fair bet and such a purchase may increase the expected return to other lottery players.     

A practice review of technology management: Focusing on KONVER I support for defence diversification

Defence industry cutbacks impact at national and local economy levels by triggering business deaths and job cuts, leading to lost workforce and production skills and a contracting manufacturing and technology base. Diversification is a key responsive mechanism to defence industry contraction, but how this can be funded and managed is a major issue. One route is to provide the structure and mechanisms for technology transfer. The 1980s and 1990s have seen a number of initiatives established which prioritised this route and some have received European funding under KONVER I support for defence diversification. These constituted the primary focus of research for this paper and form a practice review of diversification experiences between 1993 and 1995 through selected case studies from Lancashire, the West Midlands, the South West and Hertfordshire. Discussion of the mechanisms, structures and operational issues is contexualised by outlining public and private sector strategies and support.     

Thinking about ... leadership. Warts and all

Does using Tyco's funds to purchase a $6,000 shower curtain and a $15,000 dog-shaped umbrella stand make Dennis Kozlowski a bad leader? Is Martha Stewart's career any less instructive because she may have sold some shares on the basis of a tip-off? Is leadership synonymous with moral leadership? Before 1970, the answer from most leadership theorists would certainly have been no. Look at Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot, Mao Tsetung--great leaders all, but hardly good men. In fact, capricious, murderous, high-handed, corrupt, and evil leaders are effective and commonplace. Machiavelli celebrated them; the U.S. constitution built in safeguards against them. Everywhere, power goes hand in hand with corruption--everywhere, that is, except in the literature of business leadership. To read Tom Peters, Jay Conger, John Kotter, and most of their colleagues, leaders are, as Warren Bennis puts it, individuals who create shared meaning, have a distinctive voice, have the capacity to adapt, and have integrity. According to today's business literature, to be a leader is, by definition, to be benevolent. But leadership is not a moral concept, and it is high time we acknowledge that fact. We have as much to learn from those we would regard as bad examples as we do from the far fewer good examples we're presented with these days. Leaders are like the rest of us: trustworthy and deceitful, cowardly and brave, greedy and generous. To assume that all good leaders are good people is to be willfully blind to the reality of the human condition, and it severely limits our ability to become better leaders. Worse, it may cause senior executives to think that, because they are leaders, they are never deceitful, cowardly, or greedy. That way lies disaster.     

Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate

This paper estimates a VAR including labor productivity, real wage and unemployment rate, to identify the dynamic effects of technology, demand, and mark-up shocks, respectively, on the Italian labor market. Identification is achieved by imposing recursive restrictions on the matrix of long run multipliers. Our results show that both mark up and aggregate demand shocks permanently reduce the unemployment rate. Finally, technology shocks do not significantly affect the unemployment rate in the long run. These findings convey important policy implications: expansionary aggregate demand and deregulation policies reducing the mark up permanently decrease the Italian unemployment rate.Jel classification: C32, E32, J29This paper has been produced as part of a CEPR Research Network on New Approaches to the Study of Economic Fluctuations. We would like to thank Marcello DAmato, Mario Forni, Marco Lippi and Antonio Ribba for useful comments. We are also grateful to Bernd Sussmuth for pointing out to us several significant improvements to the paper.First version received: November 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

Acknowledgement of external reviewers for 2000

Editorial Board

Acknowledgement of external reviewers for 2000     

The Economic Consequences of the Obama Reelection: How Stagnation Has Vanquished Growth

The stagnation of the American economy during the past decade is attributable to faulty policies at both the macro and micro level. The efforts to organize stimulus programs and manipulation tax rates create uncertainties that offset any supposed gains from Keynesian policies. At the same time, the failure to address major structural flaws in labor, real estate, free trade and positive rights have resulted in cumulative dislocations that require a shrinkage of government across the board to facilitate any reversal of economic fortune.     

Financial incentives to postpone retirement and further effects on employment — Evidence from a natural experiment

This paper examines the effect of the introduction of permanent benefit reductions for early retirees (i) on the duration until benefit claiming and (ii) on the duration until exit from gainful employment. I estimate discrete time duration models using different error term specifications. Administrative data containing the full earnings history of the individuals are used. Since the reform implementing the benefit reductions was a natural experiment, under some assumptions a causal effect can be identified. The permanent reduction of retirement benefit amounts causes a postponement of claiming benefits by about 14 months and a delay of employment exit by about 10 months on average.     

Testing Alternative Hypotheses in Economic History

This paper employs a statistical technique comparing non-nested quantitative models in order to address an important problem in economic history, namely, the appropriate role of microeconomic models in historical analysis. Discussion proceeds by example. As described in the paper, three research groups have offered explantations of the shift from corn to cotton production in the post-bellum US South but because their research methods are different, it is difficult to evaluate them effectively. This paper suggests a method for comparing them. The method is based on the Neyman–Pearson likelihood ratio and proceeds by focusing on the three groups’ models of crop choice, in turn hypothesizing each model as ‘truth’, and testing all other against it. Though restrictive in its own right, this excercise suggests one data-oriented approach to all-too-common problem of model proliferation in economic history.