Employment Dynamics and Linkages in the Rural Economy: Insights from Senegal

Evidence on rural wage employment is thin and lacks nuance for different employment sources, insights on dynamic effects, and an understanding of the channels of effects. We assess conceptually and empirically the direct and indirect welfare effects of entry and continuation in different types of wage employment in rural Senegal. Using panel data, fixed effects and first-difference estimation, we show substantial positive welfare and linkage effects. We find that participation in wage employment increases per capita income by 143%, and reduces poverty, poverty gap and food insecurity by, respectively, 63%, 89% and 48%. While the direct effect on income is larger for non-agricultural and contractual wage employment, the indirect income effects through self-employment are more pronounced for agricultural and casual wage employment. Our results imply that job creation is important for rural development, that wage employment in agriculture can lead to considerable growth multiplier effects, and that synergies exist between large-scale and small-scale agriculture.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS: THE NEXT 25 YEARS

This year marks the 25th anniversary of the International Input–Output Association and the 25th volume of Economic Systems Research. To celebrate this anniversary, a group of eight experts provide their views on the future of input–output. Looking forward, they foresee progress in terms of data collections, methods, theory testing, and focus and scope.     

Consistent estimation in the bilinear multivariate errors-in-variables model

A bilinear multivariate errors-in-variables model is considered. It corresponds to an overdetermined set of linear equations AXB=C, A∈ℝ^m×n, B∈ℝ^p×q, in which the data A, B, C are perturbed by errors. The total least squares estimator is inconsistent in this case.  An adjusted least squares estimator is constructed, which converges to the true value X, as m →∞, q →∞. A small sample modification of the estimator is presented, which is more stable for small m and q and is asymptotically equivalent to the adjusted least squares estimator. The theoretical results are confirmed by a simulation study. Acknowledgements. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and corrections.? A. Kukush is supported by a postdoctoral research fellowship of the Belgian office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs, promoting Scientific and Technical Collaboration with Central and Eastern Europe.? S. Van Huffel is a full professor with the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.? I. Markovsky is a research assistant with the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.? This paper presents research results of the Belgian Programme on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction (IUAP V-22), initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Minister's Office – Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs of the Concerted Research Action (GOA) projects of the Flemish Government MEFISTO-666 (Mathematical Engineering for Information and Communication Systems Technology), of the IDO/99/03 project (K.U. Leuven) “Predictive computer models for medical classification problems using patient data and expert knowledge”, of the FWO projects G.0078.01, G.0200.00, and G0.0270.02.? The scientific responsibility is assumed by its authors.     

Inter-market competition for exchange traded funds

We examine how the different mix of informed and liquidity trading in the market for ETFs affects the nature of inter-market competition. We find that both the characteristics of the securities and the structures of the competing markets jointly determine the nature of inter-market competition. Given the superior execution quality on the ECNs and the low adverse selection costs in the ETF market, anonymous market such as the ECNs, attract both liquidity and informed traders. We also find that markets compete in a subset of ETFs. In addition, we find that quotebased competition is prevalent in the market for ETFs.     

Natural Resources and Internal Conflict

We present a model of conflict in which each group decides to claim the country’s income and invest in arms or to accept a group neutral allocation of income and not invest in arms. Apart from the usual cooperative or conflictual societies, their strategic choice can result in hierarchically stratified societies in which one group is dominant. We show how the presence and exploitation of certain types of resources matters for the occurrence of conflict or social hierarchical stratification and for the possible effects of trust manipulation. In particular we find that, first, robust (encompassing point and lootable) resource rich economies tend to be conflictual, plantation economies hierarchically stratified and diversified economies cooperative. Second, foreign intervention, aimed at changing the balance of power in the case of conflict, is most effective in robust and diffuse resource rich economies. Third, trust manipulation (as a means to counter conflict) is most effective in subsistence and diffuse resource rich economies. Throughout the article, we cite ample case study and econometric evidence to support our model.     

Spatial analysis of the U.S. lodging industry, 1963–1977

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Census of Business in 1963, 1972, and 1977 were compared on a state by state basis and by standard metropolitan statistical areas in order to analyze the spatial growth points of the U.S. lodging industry. The results point to major lodging growth areas in the Sunbelt states with central Florida, Las Vegas, Nevada and Hawaii as outstanding nodes of development. Metropolitan lodging growth has taken place in the Sunbelt cities with populations of 100,000 to one million, with above average growth in those cities located in the coastal zone.     

Interorganizational Trust and Technology Complexity: Evidence for New Technology‐Based Firms

Integrating the transaction cost economics and relational perspectives, this paper puts forward that technology complexity within new technology‐based firms negatively influences the level of interorganizational trust in key partner relationships. Using a data set of 105 key partner relationships of 59 new technology‐based firms, we find that the new technology‐based firm's level of trust in its key partners is lower when the level of technology complexity is high. Findings further show that both relationship and partner characteristics moderate the technology complexity—trust relationship. These results show that technology complexity as an appropriability mechanism becomes endogenous to collaboration, thereby extending the Teece framework.     

Do Mothers Matter? A Comparison of Models of the Influence of Mothers' and Fathers' Educational and Occupational Status on Children's Educational Attainment

The first objective of this article is to clarify which model best captures the structure and trend of the influence of social origin on children's education. The second objective is to analyse how general conclusions on historical trends in educational reproduction change if we add mother's status background to the model. Six contrasting hypotheses are derived fromthe body of literature dealing with models on families' socioeconomic status. All hypotheses are translated into empirical models and their explained variance is compared. A pooled data set is used that contains data from the Netherlands, West Germany, and the USA. The Modified Dominance Model, that distinguishes the influence of the highest from thelowest status parent, has the best model fit. Regarding the second objective we see that adding the mother's influence to that of the father's does not change general conclusions on trends in educational reproduction. Over time the influence of both parents decreases continuously. However, the influence of the mother's education and occupational status on children's educational attainment is substantive.