Foresight in science and technology

Emerging generic technologies seem set to make a revolutionary impact on the economy and society. However, success in developing such technologies depends upon advances in science. Confronted with increasing global economic competition, policy-makers and scientists are grappling with the problem of how to select the most promising research areas and emerging technologies on which to target resources and, hence, derive the greatest benefits. This paper analyzes the experiences of Japan, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and the UK in using foresight to help in selecting and exploiting research that is likely to yield longer-term economic and social benefits. It puts forward a model of the foresight process for identifying research areas and technologies of strategic importance, and also analyzes why some foresight exercises have proved more successful than others. It concludes by drawing an analogy between models of innovation and foresight.     

珠海模式的实践与探索

30年来,珠海努力探索走一条体现科学发展观、与传统发展路径不一样的发展道路,在发展经济的同时,注重生态环境保护,谋求经济与环境协调发展;注重依靠科技进步,转变经济发展方式;注重立足资源禀赋,有选择地发展特色优势产业;注重优先保障和改善民生,推动和谐社会建设。在珠海未来的发展道路上,应当继续坚持以人为本,调整经济结构,加强社会建设,深化区域合作,实现建设宜居宜业生态文明城市的战略目标。     

Minimising the harm to biodiversity of producing more food globally

Should farming and conservation policies aim broadly to separate land for nature and land for production (land sparing) or integrate production and conservation on the same land (wildlife-friendly farming)? Most studies that try to address this question suffer from flaws in sampling design, inappropriate metrics, and/or failure to measure biodiversity baselines. We discuss how these failings can be addressed, and what existing information tells us about the key debates on this topic. The evidence available suggests that trade-offs between biodiversity and yield are prevalent. While there are some wildlife-friendly farming systems that support high species richness, a large proportion of wild species cannot survive in even the most benign farming systems. To conserve those species, protection of wild lands will remain essential. Sustainable intensification could help to facilitate sparing of such lands, provided that as much attention is given to protecting habitats as to raising yields. We discuss the general circumstances under which yield increases can facilitate land sparing, recognising that policies and social safeguards will need to be context-specific. In some situations, bringing degraded lands into production could help reduce pressure on wild lands, but much more information is needed on the biodiversity implications of using degraded lands. We conclude that restricting human requirements for land globally will be important in limiting the impacts on biodiversity of increasing food production. To achieve this, society will need to integrate explicit conservation objectives into local, regional and international policies affecting the food system.     

Environmental and Social Policy and Earning Persistence

In recent years, the effect of disclosure on environmental and social information has been the subject of much research in an Anglo‐Saxon context. The European field, and especially the French companies, have not been sufficiently discussed. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between social and environmental disclosure and earning persistence (as a proxy of earning quality). We use the content analysis method with annual reports as a measure of social and environmental disclosure; the empirical validation is applied to the companies listed in the SBF 250 French stock market index over the 2005–2010 period. To measure earning persistence we opt for a regression of a time‐series model on panel data. The findings show that French companies are characterized by a high level of social and environmental reporting; this situation may affect positively the quality of earnings such as more persistent earnings. This means that companies with a higher level of social and environmental commitment are more likely to take benefits and to communicate more persistent earnings and be desirable to investors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

组合压气机中尾迹与势流同频/异频干涉的叠加特性

为揭示多级压气机中上下游叶轮对中间叶片叠加气动影响特性,阐述不同叠加干涉情况下下游叶轮进气角度变化,采用数值方法模拟了一级轴流和一级离心组成的组合压气机非定常流场。详细讨论了上游动叶尾迹和下游动叶势流对中间导流叶栅段气流非定常流动的异频和同频叠加干涉特性,依据计算结果,直观地展示了静叶通道中两种干涉间相互激励和抑制作用的位置和时间,与数学公式的推导结果相互印证。研究结果表明:当上下游动叶对中间静叶段异频干涉时,干涉的激励、抑制区域的轴向位置随时间发生变化；当上下游动叶对中间静叶干涉频率相同时,干涉的相互激励、抑制区域的轴向位置不随时间发生变化,但干涉的激励、抑制区域的轴向位置受时序位置影响。另外,上游动叶尾迹与下游离心叶轮势流的不同叠加情况,决定着下游离心叶轮进口相对气流角的大小及波动幅值。      

Optimum tariffs and retaliation: How country numbers matter

This paper identifies a new terms-of-trade externality that is exercised through tariff setting. A North-South model of international trade is introduced in which the number of countries in each region can be varied. As the number of countries in one region is increased, each government there competes more aggressively with the others in its region, by lowering its tariff, to attract imports from the other region. In doing so, all countries in a region exert a negative terms-of-trade externality on each other, collectively undermining their own terms of trade and welfare. This externality can increase efficiency if the numbers of countries in both regions are increased simultaneously.