人民币的远大抱负

中国正越来越多地参与商讨解决当前经济问题的对策。讨论大部分是围绕着钱的问题——无论是温家宝总理对中国持有的美国国债价值的担忧,还是中国央行提出的以超主权储备货币取代美元的国际货币体系。到目前为止,制约中国向全球货币改革贡献力量的一大因素一直是中国自身的货币政策,特别是人民币不可自由兑换的事实。不过,现在有初步迹象显示情况正在开始发生变化。     

Incorporating choice dynamics in models of consumer behavior

This paper presents a framework for organizing and discussing factors influencing consumer choice dynamics, how these factors may be incorporated into models of buyer behavior and problems that may arise in estimating such models. The paper identifies research issues and delineates possible approaches. Proceedings of Session on Choice Dynamics at the Banff Symposium on Consumer Decision-Making and Choice Behavior. All authors share equally in content and remaining errors.     

Green Consumption under Misperceived Prices: An Application to Active Transportation

We propose a consumption model that captures the impact that perceived price ambiguities may have upon decision‐making in green markets in general and in active transportation markets in particular. The basic intuition for the model is that a consumer who may be misperceiving the price of the green good (the active transportation mode) would be willing to pay a positive amount from her income in the current period to resolve the misperception going forward. We posit that the basis for the price misperception in the active transportation context is misperception of the relative risks involved in taking that mode. The compensating variation that aligns perceived and objective risk is derived. We show how raising green consumption via price misperception correction can be superior to traditional economic policy instruments. The results shed light on the more general family of situations in which agents may consistently misperceive aspects of the decision environment.     

Export Intensity and Plant Characteristics: What Can We Learn from Quantile Regression?

Using quantile regression and a rich cross section data set for German manufacturing plants this paper documents that the impact of plant characteristics on export activities varies along the conditional size distribution of the export/sales ratio. For example, firm size is statistically significant at a conventional level for the 0.25 quantile only; branch plant status matters at the upper tail of the conditional distribution of the export/sales ratio only; the craft shop dummy is only significant for the very top quantile; and patents do not matter at the very lower end of the conditional distribution of export over sales. This has implications both for understanding what makes a successful exporter, and for the design of policy measures with a focus on supporting exporters. JEL no. F10, D21, L60     

Market Microstructure Empirical Regularities: Behavior of the Bid-Ask Spread and Closing Prices

A substantial number of last reported transactions for stocks trading on the New York Stock Exchange occur inside the quoted closing bid-ask spread. The tendency to close inside the spread results in price change magnitudes much smaller than those predicted from binomial models. Moreover, although the change magnitude is biased by the underlying trend of the market, the distribution of next day price change relatives is largely unaffected. The result is a systematic regularity between the location of today's close and tomorrow's close relative to the bid-ask spread.     

Effectiveness and Efficiency of Cross-Border Knowledge Transfer: An Empirical Examination

abstract    Based on a sample of 102 US organizations, this study examines the impact of knowledge characteristics, recipient learning intent, source attractiveness, and relationship quality on the effectiveness and efficiency of knowledge transfer from the international business affiliates of these organizations. Findings indicate that recipient learning intent and source attractiveness positively impact the effectiveness of knowledge transfer. In addition, recipient learning intent was found to have a positive effect on knowledge transfer efficiency. In particular, results highlight the strong positive impact that the quality of the relationship between the source and the recipient has on both the efficiency and effectiveness of cross-border knowledge transfer. The study also indicates that knowledge value is positively associated with recipient learning intent and that knowledge value, rarity and non-substitutability influence source attractiveness. Finally, findings suggest that the relationship between knowledge characteristics and knowledge transfer is partially mediated by recipient learning intent and source attractiveness.