The predictive ability of a risk-adjusted yield spread for economic activity in Europe

This paper examines whether the pricing of risk is important for macroeconomic activity at the country level. We design a risk-adjusted yield spread and test its predictive content for economic activity on the periphery and the centre of Europe over the 1990–2012 period. This risk-adjusted bond yield spread is defined in a cross-country context and referred to as the GZ-type spread. Increases in the yield on corporate bonds issued in the countries on the periphery relative to the riskless yield (calculated using German zero-coupon term structure data) reflect increases in the risk premium that the financial market imposes on borrowers. The risk premium rises in all countries during European-wide recessions of the recent past, particularly those associated with the Global Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Our findings indicate further that this GZ-type spread acts as a reliable signal for imminent and near-term economic activity in countries where financial markets were shaken to their foundations during the Crisis period. For Germany, the GZ-spread has predictive content for industrial production but not for the unemployment rate. For GDP its predictive ability is confined to the EMU period.     

IDENTIFYING THE RESPONSE OF FERTILITY TO FINANCIAL INCENTIVES

While using financial incentives to increase fertility has become relatively common, the effects of such policies are difficult to assess. We propose an identification strategy that relies on the fact that the variation in wages induces variation in benefits and tax credits among ‘comparable’ households. We implement our approach by estimating a discrete‐choice model of female participation and fertility using individual data from the French Labor Force Survey and a detailed representation of the French tax–benefit system. Our results suggest that financial incentives have had a significant effect on fertility decisions in France. As an example, we simulate the effects of an additional, unconditional child credit of 150 euros per month. The effects are strongest for the third child. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The transition from products to solutions: External business model fit and dynamics

This article provides empirical evidence and contributes to theory building concerning business model fit and dynamics in the area of solutions business. Business models are seen in this context as going beyond considerations such as offerings and internal processes or even relationships, and as including network and market considerations. Indeed the paper highlights the fact that a business model is not firm-focused, nor dyad-focused, but rather network-, and even market-focused, demonstrating that a business model is not static, but dynamic. Manufacturer and customer continuously shift form and content of their respective business models to adapt both to the needs of the counterpart and to market context. A qualitative case study approach is adopted, with subsequent content analysis. The case study relates to the aerospace industry with focus on a complex engineering firm, one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world, its customer — a national airline — and their network partners of various kinds. The data were collected through multiple face-to-face interviews with managers in both companies, as a part and parcel of a network of actors that influences and is influenced by the supplier–buyer relationship. Relationships over time between these firms and network partners are described, highlighting the interplay of products and services related to the provision of solutions. Findings highlight the dynamic nature of business models over the relationship lifecycle between supplier and customer in a complex engineering environment, and the need for reciprocal adjustment of models.     

The contractual and value relevance of reported earnings in a dividend-focused environment

This study investigates the relevance of reported earnings in the context of an institutional environment, i.e., Switzerland, in which investors focus on dividends. In conjunction with a dividend focus, the financial reporting environment faced by Swiss firms provides their managers with more accounting discretion than managers of Anglo-Saxon firms typically have. From a contractual perspective, dividendbased earnings management is expected since Swiss corporate law explicitly states that dividends, which must be voted on by stockholders, are to be based upon a firm's reported earnings. From a value perspective, thin trading conditions and a long-term investment horizon are expected to increase the importance of dividend payments and to influence the informativeness of reported earnings. Results indicate that Swiss managers do engage in dividend-based earnings management, that earnings quality signals are used by managers to voluntarily constrain their accounting choices and that the value relevance of earnings is conditional upon dividend payments.     

Mergers of not-for-profit hospitals in the 1980s: Who were the most likely targets?

Proponents argue that mergers should be encouraged as a legitimate strategy to avert (presumably undesirable) hospital closures. More recently, antitrust activity directed at not-for-profit hospitals has intensified. This study attempts to shed some light on the policy debate by testing whether merger targets are indeed candidates for closure, namely hospitals with persistent losses. Acquisitions of independent not-for-profit hospitals by other hospitals and by multihospital corporations are observed from a national sample for the period 1982–1987. The likelihood of being acquired in during any year within that period is estimated using a discrete-time hazard rate model. We find no evidence to support the notion that hospitals with weak financial indicators are more likely to be acquired. Rather, we find that hospitals with high operating-margins that are located in less regulated markets, and to a certain extent in high-growth markets, are more likely to be acquired. These findings cast doubt on certain predictions found in the theoretical literature, but are in agreement with empirical studies of other industries.     

An International Carbon Tax to Combat Global Warming: An Economic and Political Analysis of the European Union Proposal

A bstract An international carbon tax has been the subject of considerable recent discussion as an economic incentive instrument to combat the perceived threat of global warming lesuking, primarily, from the use of the carbon emitting fossils–coal, oil, and natural gas–in the production of energy. During 1991, the European Union proposed the adoption of such a tax to be imposed by each member nation. The economic merits as well as the problems associated with the proposed European carbon tax are discussed along with the political prospects for its adoption. It is concluded that even though early adoption of the tax is unlikely, the economic merits of this tax instrument for the alleviation of global warming accompanied by changing political parameters may lead to its adoption in the long run.     

THE REGIONAL AGGLOMERATION IMPACAT OF JUST-I-TIME INPUT LINLAGES: EVIDENCE FROM THE SCOTTISH ELECTONICS INDUSTRY

There is no clear consensus as yet concerning the possible regional agglomeration impacts of Japanese Just-In-Time manufacturing techniques. This paper attempts to provide a theoretical structure to discussing such questions and then uses a logit model to analyse evidence from the Scottish Electronics Industry. The results provide support to the suggestion not only that the adoption of such techniques within the UK will encourage the shortening of input linkages, but also that this phenmenon is not restricted purely to the case of the automotive industry.