关于中国货币政策的分析与建议

中国人民银行在货币政策战略方面已经取得了巨大成绩,但随着经济的日趋复杂,货币政策的有效性将会降低。实证研究表明中国需要维持对货币的盯住(a reference to money)战略以及加强利率在货币政策执行中的作用。我们建议采取折衷性战略,包括盯住若干指标,并将短期利率作为执行目标。应该赋予央行利率政策的自主权,在不远的将来实现这一目标不存在技术上的障碍。     

Hardening soft accounting information: Games for planning organizational change

This study provides theory and field evidence on the social process of hardening soft accounting information to make it persuasive for planning organizational change. Accounting information intended to support organizational change is often soft, that is, there is lack of interpersonal agreement about its quality. For example, employees can lack agreement about the quality of accounting information (e.g., activity-based costing) because the information is constructed from subjective information obtained from interviews and surveys. This information can contain unintentional errors as well as intentional distortions that are intended to avoid revealing embarrassing inefficiencies and/or to resist painful organizational change. We use concepts from applied game theory and social psychology to identify from the accounting literature four multi-person games that may be played to harden soft accounting information. These hardening games are characterized in terms of payoffs, players, the comparability of soft accounting information, and the rules of the games that are expected to emerge. We interpret the field evidence as indicating that the hardening games that emerge depend on who the players are and the comparability of their soft accounting information. In addition, we provide evidence on how the rules of the games that harden the information emerge from the players’ social interactions. Finally, we provide evidence on how an organization learns by trial-and-error how to harden soft accounting information by changing the players and the comparability of the soft accounting information.     

Investment in Africa's Manufacturing Sector: A Four Country Panel Data Analysis

Firm level data for the manufacturing sector in Africa, presented in this paper, shows very low levels of investment. The importance of profit effects on investment is investigated using a flexible accelerator, a specification based on the Euler equation and a simple generalisation of these specificiations. There are controls for firm fixed effects. It is shown that the profit effect is very similar for both the accelerator and Euler equation specifications. A comparison with other studies shows that, for small firms, the effect is much smaller in Africa than for other countries. Reasons for the relative insensitivity of investment to profits in African firms are suggested. For the most general specification tested there are no significant differences in the size of the profit effect across the four countries in the study.     

Japanese managerial and organizational learning

The article describes how the external forces of Japanese culture, industrial organization, and government intervention support managerial and organizational learning. It provides an overview of the culturally explicit philosophies that govern and stimulate learning in Japan, then explains how these philosophies are exhibited in Japanese management practice today. A model is presented which demonstrates the relationships among external forces, philosophical origins, management practice, and managerial and organizational learning. The conclusion is that managerial and organizational learning constitute one of Japan's most valuable competitive advantages. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Effects of multimember districts on black representation in state legislatures

We look at the most general feature of multimember districts (MMDs) as compared to single-member districting (SMD) plans: the higher likelihood of submergence of minority voting strength. We focus on data on black legislative representation between 1977 and 1982 in the 11 states with more than 15% black populations, and compare states which use MMDs with those that use SMDs. We also examine changes in black representation in states which shifted from MMDs to SMDs. In addition, for MMD state legislative elections in eight North Carolina counties between 1978 and 1982, we examine in detail the nature of minority submergence including the lack of geographic representativity of the persons elected from MMDs. The counties we examine contain four of North Carolina’s largest cities and a substantial portion of North Carolina’s black population. Unlike almost all of the previously published literature on racial representation in MMDs, our study deals with state legislative races and not local elections.     

An assessment of market-based approaches to providing ecosystem services on agricultural lands

Market-based approaches are increasingly being advocated as tools for achieving the conservation of ecosystem services. We examine the reasons why markets so far appear to have failed to provide an efficient allocation of many ecosystem services, and identify the conditions under which markets deliver efficient resource allocation. We discuss different forms of market-based approaches to ecosystem services and identify the characteristics of services that make them better suited to one or another of these approaches. We find that lack of low-cost measurability and valuation currently precludes efficient allocation of many ecosystem services through market-based approaches. Still, some forms of market-based approaches hold promise for cost-effectively managing some ecosystem services provided by and to agricultural lands. In many cases some form of well-designed government involvement will be required to seek outcomes that protect the public interest.     

Virtual schools

Virtual schools have already made their appearance. This paper examines the factors which promote or slow the spread of virtual schools. Technological change, economic rationalism, and the suitability of conventional schools for the information age are identified as reasons for the continued growth of virtual schools. Conversely, the identification of an appropriate pedagogy, the lack of required teaching skills, concerns for the reshaping of human values, socialisation, and the continued need for student supervision are seen as reasons why virtual schools will not rapidly overtake conventional ones. It is concluded that virtual schools will continue to increase in the 21st century, and that appropriate planning must be made for their impact.     

Using International Institutions to Improve Public Procurement

The World Trade Organization's voluntary rules on governmentprocurement are a useful mechanism for ensuring that publicprocurement procedures are efficient. They also provide an opportunityto reduce the uncertainty of participants by increasing transparencyand accountability. Yet most developing countries have chosennot to subject their procurement policies to international disciiplinesand multilateral surveillance. Their reasons may include anunfamiliarity with the government procurement agreement (GPA);a perception that the potential payoffs are small; a desireto discriminate in favor of domestic firms; or the successfulopposition of groups that benefit from the current regimes.Although the economic rationales for abstaining from the GPAare not compelling, a quid pro quo for accession may be neededto overcome opposition by special interests. Developing countryprocurement markets are large enough that governments may beable to make accession to the GPA conditional on temporary exceptionsto multilateral disczplines or on better access to export markets.