Municipal welfare functions

In this paper the concept of a municipal welfare function is defined. It reflects the evaluation by local authorities of several levels of local expenditures. On the basis of an extensive survey among all Dutch municipal authorities these functions are estimated for about 550 Dutch municipalities with respect to total expenditures and differentiated with respect to several portfolios, like public works, education, etc. The variation of the estimated municipal welfare parameters is explained by objectively measurable municipal characteristics like the number of the inhabitants, age distribution of inhabitants and houses, number of unemployed, regional situation.     

Patterns of strategic alliances between rival firms

This article describes the results of a research project which examined 171 alliances set up by competing firms in an international context. It presents an empirically-based taxonomy of such alliances constructed on the basis of a set of variables chosen for their demonstrated or assumed influence on the evolution and outcomes of strategic partnerships. Three contrasted types of alliances are identified: quasi-concentration alliances, market penetration alliances and shared supply alliances. They differ according to two fundamental dimensions: their symmetrical or dissymmetrical nature and the way in which they alter competition. Legal structure, often emphasized in previous research on the subject, does not emerge as a strongly discriminating factor. Hypotheses on the likely evolution and outcomes of each type of alliance are derived from the taxonomy.We are grateful to Barbara Gray, Stuart Hart, Aneel Karnani, Will Mitchell, Michel Tenenhaus, and to two anonymous reviewers for their very valuable and helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article. Our research project was funded by Fondation HEC, whose support we gratefully acknowledge.     

Estimating daily volatility in financial markets utilizing intraday data

This study proposes a new approach to the estimation of daily realised volatility in financial markets from intraday data. Initially, an examination of intraday returns on S&P 500 Index Futures reveals that returns can be characterised by heteroscedasticity and time-varying autocorrelation. After reviewing a number of daily realised volatility estimators cited in the literature, it is concluded that these estimators are based upon a number of restrictive assumptions in regard to the data generating process for intraday returns. We use a weak set of assumptions about the data generating process for intraday returns, including transaction returns, given in den Haan and Levin [den Haan, W.J., Levin, A., 1996. Inferences from parametric and non-parametric covariance matrix estimation procedures, Working paper, NBER, 195.], which allows for heteroscedasticity and time-varying autocorrelation in intraday returns. These assumptions allow the VARHAC estimator to be employed in the estimation of daily realised volatility. An empirical analysis of the VARHAC daily volatility estimator employing intraday transaction returns concludes that this estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators cited in the literature.     

Dynamic monopoly pricing with network externalities

In this paper, we study the optimal dynamic monopoly pricing for a good which exhibits positive network externalities. When network externalities are of sufficient magnitude, we show that, contrary to the Coase theorem, (1) there is no time inconsistency problem; (2) subgame perfect equilibrium prices increase as time passes. From this point of view, positive network externalities allow the monopoly to commit itself credibly to increasing future prices.Ce papier étudie la tarification optimale intertemporelle d'un monopole qui vend un bien exhibant des externalités positives de réseau. Lorsque ces externalités sont suffisamment importantes, nous montrons que, contrairement au théorème de Coase, (1) il n'y a pas de problème d'incohérence temporelle, (2) les prix d'équilibre parfait croissent avec le temps. De ce point de vue, les externalités positives de réseau permettent au monopole de s'engager crédiblement sur une politique de prix futurs à la hausse.     

Trade costs, firms and productivity

This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturing industries and plants to changes in trade costs using a unique new dataset on industry-level tariff and transportation rates. Our results lend support to recent heterogeneous-firm models of international trade that predict a reallocation of economic activity towards high-productivity firms as trade costs fall. We find that industries experiencing relatively large declines in trade costs exhibit relatively strong productivity growth. We also find that low-productivity plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die; that relatively high-productivity non-exporters are more likely to start exporting in response to falling trade costs; and that existing exporters increase their shipments abroad as trade costs fall. Finally, we provide evidence of productivity growth within firms in response to decreases in industry-level trade costs.     

An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa

The paper tests the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) using the within-effects and the dynamic panel generalised methods of moment (GMM) techniques for a panel of eight middle-income African countries over the period 1960–2009. We selected these countries because they exhibited a mixture of relative productivity growth and real exchange rate misalignment that fits the characterization of the BSH well. The results strongly support the BSH for this group of countries. The results are valid even after we controlled for potentially omitted variables and endogeneity. The implication is that as these countries become more productive, their currencies appreciate in real terms.     

Experts,firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

In this article, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluated the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer (IEB), to predict unemployment changes. Since the IEB focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the IEB outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.     

Entry and capital structure mimicking in concentrated markets: The role of incumbents’ financial disclosures

We examine whether the public availability of product market incumbents' financial disclosures leads to greater capital structure mimicking of incumbents by entrants. Exploiting a change in disclosure enforcement for German private firms in the mid-2000s, we find entrant-incumbent mimicking rises substantially in concentrated markets once incumbents' financial statements are publicly available. Additional tests exploring potential mechanisms are more consistent with interfirm learning underlying the effect than alternative channels. Our findings shed light on the effects of competitor financial statement disclosure on private firms’ initial financing decisions and highlight how capital structure dependencies among peer firms arise.