Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area

Abstract. This paper analyzes the dynamic response of loans to the private sector and of economic activity to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area based on a standard macroeconomic VAR using sign restrictions to identify the structural shocks. The main results of this analysis are that (i) with the exception of the response to the supply shock in Germany, the response of loans to the three macroeconomic shocks is rather weak and in most cases insignificant; (ii) the 2000–05 credit slowdown and weak economic performance in Germany were primarily driven by adverse supply shocks; and (iii) the marked slowdown in credit creation in Germany over this period actually represents a realignment of the outstanding stock of loans with its deterministic level. In order to assess the role of bank lending in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, we further perform counterfactual simulations and analyze the dynamic responses of German loan subaggregates in order to test the distributional implications of potential credit market frictions. These exercises do not indicate that credit market frictions play an amplifying role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations.     

Development similarities in urban clusters: Evidence from a spatial analysis of Israel''s urban system

The effect of geographic proximity on the similarity of development rates exhibited by urban localities in Israel is investigated. The analysis is carried out in three stages. During the first stage, Moran's I measure of spatial autocorrelation is used, indicating that the spatial autocorrelation of development rates drops as inter-town distances increase. In the second stage, the impact of explanatory variables (population size, remoteness, etc.) is tested using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLSs) and Spatial Lag Models (SLMs). The analysis indicates that inter-town proximity is a significant factor that helps to improve regression fits. Lastly, during the third step of the analysis, the spatial association of development rates is studied separately for centrally located and peripheral towns. The analysis points out that proximity effects appear to be stronger in the periphery.     

Integrating soft factors into the assessment of cooperative relationships between firms: accounting for reputation and ethical values

Alliances and other forms of cooperation between firms often promise great benefits, for example, by the exchange of knowledge or co‐specialization of resources. At the same time, the necessary actions to realize these benefits can augment vulnerability to opportunistic behaviour of partners. In addition to formal contracts to mitigate the resulting behavioural uncertainties, often, mechanisms, such as reputation or ethical values, are suggested as important supplements. However, when it comes to assessment of a specific cooperation opportunity, it is difficult to account systematically for the economic consequences of these ‘softer factors’. Therefore, this paper aims to surpass mere financial analysis of chance and risk and to integrate systematically both reputation and ethical values into an economic assessment of cooperative relationships. For this purpose, we develop a theoretical framework that is based on a simple‐decision model to account for reputation and ethical values of potential partners as drivers of behavioural uncertainty reduction. We also discuss how this framework can be used to assess cooperative relationships and illustrate these ideas with reference to the inter‐organizational accounting practices of a large drugstore chain and its suppliers.     

The Intellectual Structure of Product Innovation Research: A Bibliometric Study of the Journal of Product Innovation Management, 1984–2004

Product innovation research has matured substantially in the last two decades. A great deal of knowledge has been produced on various aspects of the discipline, so it is of interest to assess the state of the art the scientific community has reached in this discipline and the route it has taken. This perspective is investigated through a bibliometric study of the Journal of Product Innovation Management (JPIM), arguably the most important specialized journal on this topic. The work reviews all journal paper contributions in JPIM from 1984 to 2004 in determined time frames, assesses the citations contained in these papers, identifies how the citations are related to the various topics of production innovation research (topic‐related citation variety, topic‐related citation consistency, variation in topic‐related citation pattern), and offers a retrospective examination of the evolution of the field. The overall analysis of citations shows that most papers in JPIM cite at least one of the top 50 works identified by this study. This testifies to the strong impact of the most influential works on the intellectual structure of product innovation research. The observed citation pattern suggests that the top 50 papers gained influence in product innovation research either because they represent a relevant contribution on a fundamental topic that already has been authoritatively studied or because they investigate in a relevant manner a new topic. The paper suggests that JPIM might benefit in its aim to consolidate its position as one of the top academic business journals if published papers increasingly drew on the most influential works to inform their research design and explicitly stated the theoretical underpinnings they draw on in their research design. Overall, the analysis of the subperiods (1984–1988, 1989–1993, 1994–1998, and 1999–2004) provides evidence for the maturation of new product innovation research. Books covering a wide range of topics are replaced by journal papers addressing a specific topic; over time, specific topics emerge and become influential for the discipline's intellectual structure; papers published in JPIM augment their methodological rigor and increasingly address contingency factors. The paper also notes that obtaining relevance for JPIM authors constitutes a necessary condition for being considered by management researchers at large as an influential contribution to product innovation research.     

The risky business of hiring stars

With the battle for the best and brightest people heating up again, you're most likely out there looking for first-rate talent in the ranks of your competitors. Chances are, you're sold on the idea of recruiting from outside your organization, since developing people within the firm takes time and money. But the authors, who have tracked the careers of high-flying CEOs, researchers, software developers, and leading professionals, argue that top performers quickly fade after leaving one company for another. To study this phenomenon in greater detail, the authors analyzed the ups and downs of more than 1,000 star stock analysts, a well-defined group for which there are abundant data. The results were striking. After a star moves, not only does her performance plunge, but so does the effectiveness of the group she joins--and the market value of her new company. Moreover, transplanted stars don't stay with their new organizations for long, despite the astronomical salaries firms pay to lure them from rivals. Most companies that hire stars overlook the fact that an executive's performance is not entirely transferable because his personal competencies inevitably include company-specific skills. When the star leaves the old company for the new, he cannot take with him many of the resources that contributed to his achievements. As a result, he is unable to repeat his performance in another company--at least not until he learns to work the new system, which could take years. The authors conclude that companies cannot gain a competitive advantage or successfully grow by hiring stars from outside. Instead, they should focus on cultivating talent from within and do everything possible to retain the stars they create. Firms shouldn't fight the star wars, because winning could be the worst thing that happens to them.     

Determination of trade flows and choice of trade partners: Reconciling the Heckscher-Ohlin and the Burenstam Linder models of international trade

Zusammenfassung Die Bestimmung der Handelsstr?me und Auswahl der Handelspartner: Wie man die Au\enhandelsmodelle von Heckscher-Ohlin und von Burenstam Linder in Einklang bringt. — In der Au\enhandelsliteratur werden zwei Ans?tze zur Bestimmung der komparativen Vorteile unterschieden: (i) das Heckscher-Ohlin-Modell, das die relative Verfügbarkeit der Produktionsfaktoren als die ent-scheidende Determinante der Handelsbeziehungen ansieht; und (ii) das Burenstam Linder-Modell, das untersucht, wie sich gleichartige Pr?ferenzen der Konsumenten in der Nachfrage und im internationalen Handel niederschlagen. Dieser Artikel verbindet beide Ans?tze in einem einzigen Modell, in dem jeder der beiden Ans?tze nur einen Spezialfall darstellt. In dem Aufsatz wird die Bedeutung des gemeinsamen Modells für die Handelsstr?me, die Konsumm?glichkeiten und die Relation zwischen dem Au\enhandel und der Gr?\e einer Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Im empirischen Teil wird demonstriert, wie nützlich das Modell bei der Vorhersage des Handels mit unterschiedlichen Produktgruppen ist.

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Résumé La détermination des flux d’échanges et le choix des partenaires com-merciaux: La réconciliation des modèles de l’échange international de Heckscher-Ohlin et de Burenstam Linder. — La littérature sur les échanges internationaux distingue entre deux approches à la détermination de l’avantage comparatif: (i) le modèle de Heckscher-Ohlin qui regarde l’abondance relative des facteurs de production comme déterminant principal des relations commerciales; (ii) le modèle de Burenstam Linder qui examine la similarité des préférences des consommateurs comme elle est reflétée sur la situation de demande et les effets sur le commerce extérieur. Cet article incorpore les deux approches dans un seul modèle dans lequel chaque approche constitue un cas spécial. L’article examine les implications du modèle unifié pour les relations commerciales, les possibilités de consommation et le rapport entre les échanges internationaux et la dimension de l’économie. La section empirique démontre l’utilité du modèle pour prédire les relations commerciales des différents groupes des biens.

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Resumen Determination de los flujos comerciales y la elección de los socios comerciales: Reconciliando los modelos de comercio international de Heckscher-Ohlin y Burenstam Linder. — La literatura del comercio internacional distingue entre dos planteamientos para la determinatión de las ventajas comparativas: (i) el modelo de Heckscher-Ohlin, que considera la abundancia relativa de factores de production como el determinante más importante para el patrón de comercio; (ii) el modelo de Burenstam Linder, que examina las similitudes en los gustos re-flejados en el acondicionamiento de la demanda y su impacto sobre el comercio. En este artículo se incorporan los dos planteamientos dentro de un modelo único en el que cada uno constituye un caso especial. El artículo examina las implicaciones del modelo unificado para los patrones de comercio, posibilidades de consumo y la relatión del comercio con respecto al tama?o del país. La parte empírica del artículo demuestra la utilidad del modelo para predecir patrones de comercio de distintos grupos de productos.

     

An Anatomy Of Racial and Ethnic Trends in Male Earnings in the U.S

Progress in narrowing black–white earnings differences has been far from continuous, with some of the apparent progress resulting from labor force withdrawal among lower‐skilled African Americans. This paper documents racial and ethnic differences in male earnings from 1950 through 2010 using data from the decennial census and American Community Surveys. Emphasis is given to annual rather than weekly or hourly earnings. We take a quantile approach, providing evidence on medians and other percentiles of the distribution. Treatment of imputed earnings greatly affects measured outcomes. Hispanic men have exhibited earnings growth similar to white men over several decades. Black men have been left behind economically due in large part to increased joblessness, a process exacerbated by weak labor market conditions. By 2010, joblessness had risen to over 40 percent and the median black–white earnings gap was the largest in at least 60 years.