Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics

Supply and demand shocks had much stronger long-run effects on nominal wages and prices during the “Great Inflation”. For supply shocks, there is even a sign switch in the nominal wage response. Before and after the “Great Inflation”, nominal wages moved in the same direction as real wages and in the opposite direction of the price level, whereas nominal wages and prices moved in the same direction at longer horizons after the shock in the 1970s. Estimation of a DSGE model shows that these results reflect changes in the degree of wage indexation over time, which was considerably higher during the “Great Inflation”.     

Venture capital in Europe: social capital,formal institutions and mediation effects

Venture capital (VC) as an industry has existed for more than 50 years, yet it has only moderately developed beyond the USA despite numerous trials of governments to foster it. Vast research endeavors have been carried out to understand the antecedents, barriers, and facilitators of the industry. However, the focus has been rather limited and accounted almost exclusively for formal features of institutional environments, leaving the informal dimensions unexplored. This paper tries to close that gap. Based on longitudinal country-level data on 18 European countries, we first explore if the “usual suspects,” mostly embodied in reformable formal institutions, do play a role in the European context. We also investigate if informal institutions, and in particular social capital, may exert a prominent effect. In this respect, we found that the impact of social capital on VC activity is indeed indirect, through determining those structural formal institutions which in turn significantly affect VC activity. These findings contribute to the literature on VC and inform European policy makers on the most promising channels for creating a prosperous institutional environment for the financing of innovative start-ups.     

ECONOMIC FREEDOM & HAPPINESS INEQUALITY: FRIENDS OR FOES?

This article examines the relationship between economic freedom and happiness inequality for a large sample of countries. We find that economic freedom is negatively associated with happiness inequality and robust to several alternative measures of happiness inequality, including the standard deviation, mean absolute difference, coefficient of variation, and Gini coefficient. Among the economic freedom areas, legal system and sound money are negatively correlated with happiness inequality. Drawing on the Engerman‐Sokoloff hypothesis, we use a measure of factor endowments as an instrument for economic freedom to provide a further robustness test, finding a negative association between economic freedom and happiness inequality. (JEL D63, I31, P16)     

Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?

This paper assesses based on euro area data whether the strong in-sample long-run link between money growth and inflation that has been highlighted by a number of recent empirical studies is exploitable to predict inflation out of sample. The results from standard bivariate forecasting models suggest that no monetary (nor any other) single indicator significantly outperforms a simple benchmark forecast. The further analysis shows that it would be premature however to discard based on such evidence the usefulness of monetary (and all other) indicators. First, it is shown that based on judgemental adjustments to monetary indicators correcting for the effects of identifiable, persistent velocity shifts, it appears possible to significantly improve predictive ability in real time. Second, I find that a factor forecasting model combining monetary and economic indicators, which can be regarded as a generalized quantity theory- or two-pillar Phillips Curve-forecasting model, delivers a fairly good and stable forecasting performance.     

Which of these people is your future CEO?

Americans have long believed that U.S. military officers--trained for high-stakes positions, resilience, and mental agility--make excellent CEOs. That belief is sound, but the authors' analysis of the performance of 45 companies led by CEOs with military experience revealed differences in how the branches (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps) prepare leaders for business. Those differences reflect the trade-off between flexibility and process that each branch of the armed services must make. Army and Marine Corps officers operate in an inherently uncertain environment. They define the mission but then give subordinates the flexibility to adjust to realities on the ground. This leadership experience tends to turn out business executives who excel in small firms, where they can set a goal and then empower others to work toward it. Navy and Air Force officers, who operate expensive, complex systems such as submarines and aircraft carriers, are trained to follow processes to the letter, because even small deviations can have large consequences. In corporations, these leaders excel in regulated industries and in firms that take a process approach to innovation. The larger lesson that the military can offer the business world is that fit matters. Different circumstances demand different leadership skills. Hire the person who fits the job.     

Plot-level technical efficiency accounting for farm-level effects: Evidence from Chilean wine grape producers

This paper applies alternative panel data models to a cross-sectional dataset that contains observations at the plot level for a sample of wine-grape farms in Central Chile. The input–output data as well as key attributes of the production system are at the plot level, at which individualized management exists. However, plots belonging to a particular farm are also subject to overall centralized (farm-level) management. Thus, this data configuration offers the possibility of analyzing technical efficiency (TE) both across plots and across farms. A Generalized True Random Effects model, which permits the separate identification of farm-level and plot-level inefficiency while controlling for unobserved farm-level heterogeneity, shows that TE varies across farms but not among plots within the same farm. Geographical location also affects grape production and agro-climatic conditions influence production levels, with grape farms located on cooler zones producing significantly less than their counterparts in warmer zones, as expected. The analysis underscores the value of using recent methodologies typically applied to panel data when cross-sectional information is available for individual plots within a farm unit or in similar settings.     

The Sources of Financing Constraints

Which financial frictions drive firms’ financing constraints? We structurally estimate dynamic firm financing models embedding many financial frictions, on panels of public firms and private firms. We focus on limited enforcement, moral hazard, and trade-off models and assess which models rationalize best observed corporate policies across various samples. Our tests, based on empirical policy function benchmarks, favor trade-off models for larger public firms, limited commitment models for smaller public firms, and moral hazard models for Private firms. Our estimates suggest significant financing constraints due to agency frictions and highlight the importance of identifying their sources for firm valuation.     

Operational Budgeting in Czech Companies

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia

In this article, we use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL10 to calculate simulations of the development of the Slovenian economy until 2030. Starting from the present favourable prospects of the European economies, the forecast is very optimistic but it can nevertheless be improved by optimal fiscal policies as calculated using the OPTCON2 algorithm. If a negative shock to world trade of a size comparable to the Great Recession occurs, it will entail a decline in GDP and a slow recovery. In this case, optimal fiscal policies should not act in an expansionary way as the effectiveness of fiscal policy with respect to output and employment is rather limited in a small open economy like Slovenia. Instead, the goal of budget consolidation will call for a more restrictive fiscal policy, at least if the shock is temporary.