ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

MORE ON WELFARE GAINS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FROM LIBERALIZING WORLD FOOD TRADE

The common presumption that food-importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial-equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium models.     

The Local Economic Impacts of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan in Saskatchewan

The North American Waterfowl Management Plan seeks to improve wildlife habitat and increase waterfowl numbers through voluntary transactions with farmers to modify their land management practices. The impact of modified land use practices on the incomes of participating farmers and the regional economy are estimated. The compensation offered under the Plan for modification of land use is determined to adequately offset any loss in participants' income. Income losses to the community due to reduced farm input sales were more than offset by the increase in NAWMP direct expenditures (excluding compensation payments). Distributional effects and externalities must be recognized and monitored to ensure success of the program     

Salience and horizontal differentiation

I study a horizontal differentiation model in which one of two attributes of a product, product fit and price, is more salient for a consumer than the other and different consumers can find a different attribute salient. The attribute that is more salient is determined by relative differences between the two products and is determined endogenously as a result of firms' pricing strategies. High (low) marginal costs soften (toughen) price competition between firms. Pass-through rates are greater than 1 for some parameter values. Both industry- and firm-level cost increases may be beneficial for firms.     

Cross-sectional and time-series momentum returns and market dynamics: evidence from Japan

We test the behavioural theories of overconfidence and underreaction on cross-sectional (CS) and time-series (TS) momentum returns in the Japanese stock markets. Both CS and TS momentum returns are large and significant when the market continues in the same state and turns into losses when the market transitions to another state, consistent with the overconfidence but not the underreaction model. We find that TS conditional momentum returns exceed conditional CS momentum returns because of its active position since TS takes a net long (short) position following UP (DN) markets while CS is a zero-cost strategy irrespective of the market state. Finally, we find no relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IV) and momentum returns which is not supportive of either the overconfidence or underreaction model but implies that IV is not a significant limit to arbitrage in Japan.     

Absenteeism and Undergraduate Exam Performance

The author investigates the relationship between students' absenteeism during a principles of microeconomics course and their subsequent performance on exams. Records were maintained regarding the specific class periods that each student missed during the semester. Records were also kept of the class meeting when the material corresponding to each multiple-choice test question was covered. A qualitative choice model reveals that students who missed class on a given date were significantly more likely to respond incorrectly to questions relating to material covered that day than students who were present.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungÜbersetzt von Gerhard Tintner, WienÜbersetzt von Ragnar Nurkse, z. Zt. Wienaus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried, WienÜbersetzt von Paul Brüll, Wien.Aus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried.     

Coevolutionary cycles of convergence: An extrapolation from the ICT industry

Convergence between technologies can be regarded as an increasingly emerging trend, and has received particular attention in the coming-together of previously distinct products and solutions within the information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. In previous research, the overall impact of the convergence phenomenon remains ambiguous. Whereas some scholars suggest convergence to be associated with disintegration, entry and growth, others relate the phenomenon to opposite effects, such as consolidation and shakeouts. This inconsistency in managerial conceptions on convergence formulates a need for an integrated understanding. Within a multi-case study approach, the convergence within ICT has been observed through examining the coevolution of actors in a converging environment, and patterns in innovation dynamics and managerial responses have been identified. In reflection with existing models of innovation cycles, a model for convergence innovation processes is elaborated and discussed. In particular, the reasoning within the ICT case set is transferred onto the currently emerging entrepreneurial activities in the intersection between nano- and bio-technologies (NBT), resulting in a comparison between ICT and NBT convergences, and deriving recommendations from a retrospective to a predictive context.