A credit scoring approach for the commercial banking sector

For managing credit risk, commercial banks use various scoring methodologies to evaluate the financial performance of client firms. This paper upgrades the quantitative analysis used in the financial performance modules of state-of-the-art credit scoring methodologies. This innovation should help lending officers in branch levels filter out the poor risk applicants. The Data Envelopment Analysis-based methodology was applied to current data for 82 industrial/manufacturing firms comprising the credit portfolio of one of Turkey's largest commercial banks. Using financial ratios, the DEA synthesizes a firm's overall performance into a single financial efficiency score—the “credibility score”. Results were validated by various supporting (regression and discriminant) analyses and, most importantly, by expert judgments based on data or on current knowledge of the firms.     

The effect of scale and mode of ownership on the financial performance of the Turkish banking sector: results of a DEA-based analysis

Turkey and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to a stand-by arrangement at the outset of 2000. Consequently, Turkey implemented an exchange-rate based stabilization program to combat its high inflation. However, two financial crises followed: one in November, 2000 and the other in February, 2001. As the result some banks became problematic. This necessitated restructuring of the banking sector to increase its financial efficiency.This paper presents a financial performance index for commercial banks. The index allows one to observe the effects of scale and of the mode of ownership (public/domestic, private/domestic/foreign) on bank behavior and, therefore, on bank performance in a developing economy. It documents the effects of financial liberalization, cross-country movements, and the impact of financial crises originating in neighboring countries e.g. Russia. The study applies Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to selected fundamental financial ratios using 1989-99 data from commercial banks in Turkey. Year-by-year results explain the effects on this sector of major shifts in both national macro-economic policy and various international developments. The banks that were taken over by the regulatory government agency most recently in the analyzed period were observed to perform poorly with respect to their DEA performance index values.     

Continuous time and nonparametric modelling of U.S. interest rate models

In this paper we compare the forecasting performance of different models of interest rates using parametric and nonparametric estimation methods. In particular, we use three popular nonparametric methods, namely, artificial neural networks (ANN), k-nearest neighbour (k-NN), and local linear regression (LL). These are compared with forecasts obtained from two-factor continuous time interest rate models, namely, Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders [CKLS, J. Finance 47 (1992) 1209]; Cos, Ingersoll, and Ross [CIR, Econometrica 53 (1985) 385]; Brennan and Schwartz [BR-SC, J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 15 (1980) 907]; and Vasicek [J. Financ. Econ. 5 (1977) 177]. We find that while the parametric continuous time method, specifically Vasicek, produces the most successful forecasts, the nonparametric k-NN performed well.     

Cost analysis of material handling systems in open pit mining: Case study on an iron ore prefeasibility study

Selection of the optimal material handling system is one of the most significant decisions to be made in mineral industries. Rapid economic changes and technological improvements make cost analysis a complicated process. On the other hand, current low commodity prices have put a greater emphasis on cost reduction and process optimization to ensure viability of mining projects. In this article, two material handling systems, a semimobile in-pit crusher and conveyor systems (IPCC) and traditional truck and shovel systems (TS), are compared through the cost analysis of an iron ore prefeasibility study. Furthermore, robustness of the design parameters is evaluated through a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative importance of project parameters. Finally, risks associated with uncertain design parameters affecting cost analysis are assessed through Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that IPCC is more cost effective than TS.     

“接管”董事会

正大多数CEO将评估自己管理团队当成首要任务,但评估董事会及其规程其实比任何事情都更重要。与老板多接触,了解他们对你的期望,还有什么比这更急的事情吗?履新CEO可不是一般的工作:初到公司的100天是学习、调整、安排日程的关键时期。此间,新CEO的工作日程表上包括很多事情,比如制定详细的管理策略、掌控庞大的组织等。但很多新官上任的CEO都会忘了一件事:只有一个组织才最终决定他们的成功失败——董事会。     

The Shape of ‘Rising Powers’ to Come? The Antinomies of Growth and Neoliberal Development in Turkey

ABSTRACT

The short-term GDP growth-based economic success of the BRICS has spawned a trend of grouping large emerging market economies under shared monikers. The proliferation of a wide array of labels – from MINTs to VISTAs – within political and financial circles has been accompanied by a growing scholarly interest in the study of these ‘emerging markets’ and future ‘rising powers’. This paper discusses the literature on Turkey’s ‘rising power’ status to problematise the conceptual and analytical parameters that shape these wider debates. Accordingly, I argue that the established parameters are wholly based in, and in turn reproduce, a neoliberal conception of development which prioritises a narrowly construed metric of economic progress based on GDP growth, while simultaneously ignoring the associated socio-economic and environmental costs. The paper interrogates the ways in which select macroeconomic indicators have been deployed to legitimise neoliberal reform in Turkey and utilises this case study to mount a methodological challenge to the relevant IR/IPE literatures that conceptualise ‘emerging markets’ and ‘rising powers’ from growth-oriented perspectives.     

Guest Editors’ Introduction: CEOs’ Careers: Emerging Trends and Future Directions

The field of career studies is increasing in prominence and relevance for modern life in general and working life in particular. CEOs’ careers, especially, have received growing attention because their impact goes far beyond their personal sphere. Not surprisingly, this topic has been at the intersection of multiple literatures. In this introduction for the special issue on CEOs’ careers, we first review the different perspectives in studying CEOs’ careers, and then offer several directions to integrate those multiple perspectives. The articles in this special issue not only provide us with comprehensive new knowledge on CEOs’ careers, but also represent valuable examples of how to integrate different perspectives on this topic. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Income distribution and exchange in a dynamic search model

This paper studies the link between income distribution and trade mechanisms in a dynamic search model with two-sided asymmetric information. Buyers and sellers have imperfect information about the income levels of the other group. Furthermore, asymmetry of information about incomes is the source of price dispersion. In such a frictional environment, we capture the effects of a change in inter- and intra-class income distribution on the trade mechanism, which is represented by the expected trade volume and the flux of buyers and sellers in the market.     

Analysis of children’s interest in books and their reading levels depending on the education status of family

The reading rate is an important indicator of the development level of a country. The fundamental condition of being a developed country is having a sufficiently educated workforce, which, in turn, is directly related to reading abilities and habits. In modern society, which has been termed the “information age”, the fastest way to acquire knowledge is through reading. Reading habits are initially formed within the family. Subsequently, the desired reading objectives can be achieved through the positive contribution of the school and the child’s environment. A child with developed reading skills will have the targeted accumulation of knowledge and will be suitably positioned to attain success in their future education and professional lives. The ability to reach this objective easily is directly related to the guidance and encouragement of families in this regard. The results of this study indicate that there is a strong correlation between the levels of education of parents in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the reading habits that are given to children. For example, the results revealed that the children of 27 families with university and higher education levels read a total of 115 books, which is an average of 4.25 books per child on a monthly basis, whereas this figure was found to be 42 books, or an average of 1.82 in the 23 families with an education at high school level or below. The general purpose of the study is to determine the relationship between the reading habits of children and the education levels of their parents as well as the level of awareness of families in this respect. This is a qualitative study. The aim is to obtain in-depth and detailed data. The research is based on a case study, which is a qualitative research model. The examined case is that of North Cyprus.