Rage against the machines: how subjects play against learning algorithms

We use a large-scale internet experiment to explore how subjects learn to play against computers that are programmed to follow one of a number of standard learning algorithms. The learning theories are (unbeknown to subjects) a best response process, fictitious play, imitation, reinforcement learning, and a trial & error process. We explore how subjects’ performances depend on their opponents’ learning algorithm. Furthermore, we test whether subjects try to influence those algorithms to their advantage in a forward-looking way (strategic teaching). We find that strategic teaching occurs frequently and that all learning algorithms are subject to exploitation with the notable exception of imitation.     

Innovation Process 'Fuel Cell Vehicle': What Strategy Promises to be Most Successful?

Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers' strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure.     

The effect of option trading at the DTB on the underlying stocks' return variance

The effects of option trading at the DTB on the variance of the underlying stocks are examined. We use a new distribution free test being based on the empirical distribution functions. The evidence indicates that stock return variance increased after the introduction of the DTB. This effect can be partly explained by the strong increase in trading volume for option listed stocks. Our results stand in stark contrast to prior studies of both American and European financial markets.     

Bayesian games with unawareness and unawareness perfection

Applying unawareness belief structures introduced in Heifetz et al. (Games Econ Behav 77:100–121, 2013a), we develop Bayesian games with unawareness, define equilibrium, and prove existence. We show how equilibria are extended naturally from lower to higher awareness levels and restricted from higher to lower awareness levels. We apply Bayesian games with unawareness to investigate the robustness of equilibria to uncertainty about opponents’ awareness of actions. We show that a Nash equilibrium of a strategic game is robust to unawareness of actions if and only if it is not weakly dominated. Finally, we discuss the relationship between standard Bayesian games and Bayesian games with unawareness.     

The German Unemployment Compensation System: Effects On Aggregate Savings And Wealth Distribution

The effects of the German unemployment compensation system on aggregate savings and the distribution of wealth are studied in a general equilibrium 60–period OLG model. The distribution of wealth is derived as an endogenous function of the parameters characterizing the unemployment compensation system, which comprises unemployment insurance (Arbeitslosengeld), unemployment assistance (Arbeitslosenhilfe), and welfare payments (Sozialhilfe), the latter two being subject to a means test. As our main results: (i) both aggregate savings and wealth equality are a monotone decreasing function of unemployment benefits; (ii) optimal unemployment compensation declines over the spell of unemployment; (iii) asset–based means tests are shown to reduce welfare if the allowable wealth level is below the average wealth in the economy.     

Money Market Uncertainty and Retail Interest Rate Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Comparison

Abstract. This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between money market uncertainty and unexpected deviations in retail interest rates in a sample of ten OECD countries. We find that, with the exception of the United States, money market uncertainty has only a modest impact on the conditional volatility of retail interest rates. Even for the United States, we find that the effects of money market uncertainty are spread out over time. Our results also indicate that money market uncertainty tends to be passed on to retail rates to a lesser extent in countries where banking relationships play a substantial role.     

Antisemitism research using methodological triangulation: a case study in Germany

In research on antisemitism related to Germany generally four subdimensions of hatred towards Jews are differentiate: (a) the anti-Judaism related to the Christian religion, (b) the biologically argued racial antisemitism, (c) secondary Antisemitism, and (d) antisemitism presented as antizionism. The central question in relation to the shift in how antisemitic attitudes are articulated in the German population is the dispute over whether this shift consists merely in a change in how a continuing, fundamental antisemitic attitude is articulated, and whether antisemitic attitudes have merely found another avenue of communication. The overall object of the study is to explore the structures, contexts, and dynamics of antisemitism and to focus on aspects of political psychology, hence looking at mainly collective identification, defense, and projection patterns. In terms of methodology the intention is to study the project as part of a qualitative supplementary study, based on the integration concept described by Christian Seipel and Peter Rieker of a sequence of quantitative and qualitative empirical research. The supplementary study will have as its base a sub-sample extracted from the overall results of the GMF Survey 2005. An especially suitable method for this is the Structured Depth Interview since it makes possible revealing non-communicated motives—whether consciously kept quiet or unconsciously suppressed. The main goal here is to penetrate the surface structure of antisemitism, to decipher its political-psychological dynamics, and to elaborate its associative contexts.