Hypothesis tests using data envelopment analysis

A substantial body of recent work has opened the way to exploring the statistical properties of DEA estimators of production frontiers and related efficiency measures. The purpose of this paper is to survey several possibilities that have been pursued, and to present them in a unified framework. These include the development of statistics to test hypotheses about the characteristics of the production frontier, such as returns to scale, input substitutability, and model specification, and also about variation in efficiencies relative to the production frontier.     

Causality: a Statistical View

Statistical aspects of causality are reviewed in simple form and the impact of recent work discussed. Three distinct notions of causality are set out and implications for densities and for linear dependencies explained. The importance of appreciating the possibility of effect modifiers is stressed, be they intermediate variables, background variables or unobserved confounders. In many contexts the issue of unobserved confounders is salient. The difficulties of interpretation when there are joint effects are discussed and possible modifications of analysis explained. The dangers of uncritical conditioning and marginalization over intermediate response variables are set out and some of the problems of generalizing conclusions to populations and individuals explained. In general terms the importance of search for possibly causal variables is stressed but the need for caution is emphasized.     

The accuracy of long-term earnings forecasts in the electric utility industry

This paper examines the accuracy of various methods of forecasting long-term earnings growth for firms in the electric utility industry. In addition to a number of extrapolative techniques, Value Line analyst forecasts are also evaluated. Value Line analyst forecasts for a five-year time horizon are found to be superior to many of the extrapolative models. Among the extrapolative models examined, implied growth and historical book value per share growth rate models performed best. These results provide strong support for using Value Line growth forecasts in cost of capital estimates for electric utilities in the context of utility rate cases. Value Line forecast errors could be explained by changes in dividend payout ratios, the firm's regulatory environment and bond rating changes.     

Altruism and economic behavior: II--private charity and public policy

A bstract . The relative advantages of private charitable organizations as against government agencies in achieving efficient redistribution of income and supply of services are examined. Central to this discussion is the elasticity of private giving to tax concessions and the propoition of donor dollars being absorbed in overhead. Recent estimates of these magnitudes are summarized. Of parallel concern is to what extent can reliance on altruism by sellers of goods and services serve as a substitute for government regulations to enforce standards, prices or product disclosures. Finally, the ways in which government can use and encourage private charitable impulse to maximize social welfare are examined; of particular interest here is the literature surrounding Richard Titmuss' work on blood donorsbip which raises the issue of whether or not extension of markets reduces, rather than extends, individual choice. The growing technological complexities of society, it is concluded, render the altruistic virtues of trust and consideration increasingly valuable—if increasingly rare.     

Alliance portfolio diversity and firm performance

In this paper, we offer a comprehensive alliance portfolio diversity construct that includes partner, functional, and governance diversity. Grounding our work primarily with the resource‐ and dynamic capabilities‐based views, we argue that increased diversity in partners' industry, organizational, and national background will incur added complexity and coordination costs but will provide broadened resource and learning benefits. Increased functional diversity results in a more balanced portfolio of exploration and exploitation activities that expands the firm's knowledge base while increased governance diversity inhibits learning and routine building. Hypotheses were tested with alliance portfolio and performance data for 138 multinational firms in the global automobile industry during the twenty‐year period from 1985 to 2005. We found alliance portfolios with greater organizational and functional diversity and lower governance diversity were related to higher firm performance while industry diversity had a U‐shaped relationship with firm performance. We suggest firms manage their alliances with a portfolio perspective, seeking to maximize resource and learning benefits by collaborating with a variety of organizations in various value chain activities while minimizing managerial costs through a focused set of governance structures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

商业银行交叉销售的现状分析与策略建议

新世纪以来,银行、保险、投资等多领域金融产品的交叉销售成为各家金融机构获取客户、服务、扩张和盈利的重要工具。文章分析了当前商业银行交叉销售的现状,指出国内银行业已取得基本确立交叉销售的经营理念和经营模式、初步建立CRM系统为交叉销售提供技术支持等成效,但仍存在市场定位不明、销售手段单一、产品缺少重点等不足。文章从客户策略、产品策略、渠道策略、服务策略、队伍策略、激励策略等方面就推进我国商业银行交叉销售提出建议。     

Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience

This study has two objectives: (1) it directly evaluates the relationship between commercial mortgage default incidence and characteristics of the mortgage, borrower, property, market, and general economic conditions, and (2) it uses this relationship to predict the exposure of life insurers to future mortgage defaults and to examine the relative importance of various causes of current and past credit quality problems. A theoretical model of the default decision predicts that the decision would be expected to be driven primarily by the borrower's current equity stake in the property, or the ratio of the market value of the loan to property value (M_t/V_t), but that the presence and magnitude of transaction costs associated with default would be expected to result in underexercise of the default option. Empirical estimation making use of American Council of Life Insurance (ACLI) and National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data confirms both expectations. A high proportion of the longitudinal variation in foreclosure incidence is explained by variations in M_t/V_t, but even at high ratios M_t/V_t in excess of 1.1. only 5% to 8% of mortgagors default, although this magnitude of underexercise is probably overstated because of problems in measuring M^t and for other reasons. Simulations using the model provide a pessimistic outlook for future defaults. Default rates are predicted to double in the five-year period 1988–93. Other simulations examine the relative importance of interest rate fluctuations, property value declines, and geographic or temporal correlations in lending during the 1976–88 period on current default experience.     

A suggested taxonomy for marketing thought: The case of lacking applied development and research in marketing

An examination of marketing literature reveals a surpricing deficiency of articles discussing theoretical applications in marketing. These deficiencies are largely in the area of specific, practical, everyday applied marketing. This article casts the literature into an overall taxonomy of marketing thought and development, highlighting the deficiency. Then the article discusses the deficiency positing reasons for its continued existence. It is thought that such a taxonomy might better help marketers identify critical need areas that might well result in unusually productive findings and advances important to all marketers. EDITOR'S FOOT-NOTE: Reviewers have agreed that marketing has no Taxonomy and needs one, but that a full study and statement would be a Herculean task. The paper published here is presented as a beginning and, as the author himself states, “in the hope to stir controversy, debate, and effort.”     

A difference in informational influences: Services vs. goods

The literature provides little insight as to whether a difference exists between the marketing of services and goods. Most textbooks do not address the issue of possible differences. Their neglect of the topic would seem to indicate a working hypothesis that services and goods do not differ in any meaningful way. Authors of articles and books that do address the service issue typically dwell on implied differences between goods and services. Wyckham (1975) has concluded that “in terms of marketing, services are not different from products (goods).” Wyckham’ argument and most of the other services literature, however, is non-empirical and provides little guidance as to whether a difference between goods and servicesactually exists.