Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence

This paper suggests a new scalar measure of persistence together with a companion estimator, which has the advantage of not requiring the specification and estimation of a model for the series under investigation. The statistical properties of the companion estimator are established, which allow tests of hypotheses to be performed, under very general conditions. The use of the new measure is illustrated by re-evaluating persistence of inflation for the United States and the Euro Area. The conclusions for the United States do not differ significantly from what has been found in previous empirical studies. However, for the Euro Area we find evidence of a significant break occurring in 2001/2002, such that persistence becomes virtually nil for the period that follows the launch of the euro and the implementation of a common monetary policy by the European Central Bank.     

Prudent expectations equilibrium in economies with uncertain delivery

In an economy with private information, we introduce the notion of objects of choice as lists of bundles out of which the market selects one for delivery. This leads to an extension of the model of Arrow–Debreu that is used to study trade ex ante with private state verification. Under the assumption that agents are prudent, equilibrium is characterized by the fact that agents consume bundles with the same utility in states that they do not distinguish. This is a weaker condition than the restriction of equal consumption imposed by Radner (Econometrica 36(1), 31–58, 1968), therefore, some no trade situations are avoided and the efficiency of trade increases.     

Race and Income Distribution: Evidence from the USA,Brazil and South Africa

The aim of this paper is to provide some empirical evidence about black–white differentials in the distribution of income and wellbeing in three different countries: Brazil, the USA and South Africa. In all cases, people of African descent are in a variety of ways socially disadvantaged compared with the relatively more affluent whites. We investigate the extent of these gaps in comparative perspective, and analyze to what degree they are associated with differences in the observed characteristics of races, such as where they live, the types of household they have, or their performance in the labor market. We undertake this analysis with the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition at the means and with a propensity score approach at the entire distribution. Our results show how the factors underlying the racial divide vary across countries and income quantiles.     

A quantile regression approach for estimating panel data models using instrumental variables

We introduce a quantile regression approach to panel data models with endogenous variables and individual effects correlated with the independent variables. We find newly developed quantile regression methods can be easily adapted to estimate this class of models efficiently.     

Determinants of performance of independent financial advisors

This paper examines the performance of independent financial advisors (IFAs) in terms of their involvement in innovation activities, participation in business networks and open innovation as a strategy to cope with difficult market conditions caused by the recent economic downturn. Performance is assessed on the basis of average sales growth for years 2010–2012. The results of the study suggest that IFAs’ involvement in innovation activities, participation in networks and open innovation enhances business performance. The managerial implications are that IFAs may be able to achieve higher sales growth by participating in networks and engaging in innovation activities. The originality of this paper is that it provides an empirical assessment of possible strategies to support sales growth in small financial service sector firms facing volatile market conditions.     

An algorithm for panel ANOVA with grouped data

In this paper, we present an algorithm suitable for analysing the variance of panel data when some observations are either given in grouped form or are missed. The analysis is carried out from the perspective of ANOVA panel data models with general errors. The classification intervals of the grouped observations may vary from one to another, thus the missing observations are in fact a particular case of grouping. The proposed Algorithm (1) estimates the parameters of the panel data models; (2) evaluates the covariance matrices of the asymptotic distribution of the time-dependent parameters assuming that the number of time periods, T, is fixed and the number of individuals, N, tends to infinity and similarly, of the individual parameters when T → ∞ and N is fixed; and, finally, (3) uses these asymptotic covariance matrix estimations to analyse the variance of the panel data.     

Corporate financial distress: The case of publicly listed firms in an emerging market economy

Occurrences of financial distress (FD) are not readily obvious yet can span several periods. This paper examines episodes of FD using industry‐relative (IR) firm‐/ accounting‐, market‐ and macro‐level information. Mixed logit regressions reveal that firm‐ and market‐based measures, as well as macro‐level variables explain the likelihood of FD in 263 publicly listed non‐banking firms in the Philippines during the period 1995 to 2018. Rates of identification of firms in financial distressed states of close to 69 percent are obtained at a cutoff probability of 0.30 in the model with time‐varying intercept and slope. This study shows the importance of recognizing heterogeneous firm behavior. The ability to more accurately predict the probability of FD and to determine the financial health of firms can help financial institutions in allocating funds and policy makers in predicting crises episodes.     

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF POLICY RESTRICTIONS ON WATER WITHDRAWALS FROM SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND SOURCES

The appropriation of water for economic activities is limited by regional surface and underground endowments, and symptoms of environmentally unsustainable withdrawals are already visible in many regions of the world. In this paper we investigate the economic implications of water policy imposing source- and region-specific restrictions on water withdrawals taking the Mexican economy as a case study. We use an inter-regional input–output model of Mexico's hydro-economic regions to allocate production subject to the availability of water and other factors of production. Water sustainability requires a reduction of 7.5?km³/yr of groundwater withdrawals, which is compensated by an increase of 3.4?km³/yr of surface water, an expansion onto an additional 1.4 million hectares of rainfed land, and modifications in subnational patterns of food trade. This framework for evaluating scenarios describing sustainability-oriented water policies is readily applicable to other regions.     

The relationship between high performance work systems and employee proactive behaviour: role breadth self‐efficacy and flexible role orientation as mediating mechanisms

Drawing on the contextual perspective, this study provides novel empirical evidence on how the organisational context (specifically, the firm's human resource strategy) has an effect on employee proactivity. We use matched data from managers and employees in 102 Spanish professional service firms to examine how high performance work systems contribute to enhance employee proactive behaviours through two motivational variables: role breadth self‐efficacy and flexible role orientation. Results of a multilevel study demonstrate that role breadth self‐efficacy mediates between HPWS and employee proactivity, but flexible role orientation does not mediate this relationship.     

Balanced portfolio via signed graphs and spectral clustering in the Brazilian stock market

Quality & Quantity - A portfolio associated with a balanced signed graph that contains both positive and negative edges is more predictable and risk-averse, and is therefore likely to require...