Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Evaluation of Alternative Statistical Frameworks

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has attracted significant research attention from business academics, regulators and financial economists over the past five decades. However, much of this literature has relied on quite simplistic classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Based on a large sample of US corporate bankruptcies, we examine the predictive performance of 16 classifiers, ranging from the most restrictive classifiers (such as logit, probit and linear discriminant analysis) to more advanced techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines (SVMs) and “new age” statistical learning models including generalised boosting, AdaBoost and random forests. Consistent with the findings of Jones et al. ( 2015 ), we show that quite simple classifiers such as logit and LDA perform reasonably well in bankruptcy prediction. However, we recommend the use of “new age” classifiers in corporate bankruptcy modelling because: (1) they predict significantly better than all other classifiers on both the cross‐sectional and longitudinal test samples; (2) the models may have considerable practical appeal because they are relatively easy to estimate and implement (for instance, they require minimal researcher intervention for data preparation, variable selection and model architecture specification); and (3) while the underlying model structures can be very complex, we demonstrate that “new age” classifiers have a reasonably good level of interpretability through such metrics as relative variable importances (RVIs).     

Financial competence,overconfidence, and trusting investments: Results from an experiment

Financial transactions sometimes occur in an environment where third-party enforcement is lacking. Behavioral explanations typically allude to the social preferences, where an individual’s utility is directly affected by another’s outcome, as the driver of the trusting investments and reciprocal returns. We hypothesize that, in part, these decisions are determined by an individual’s financial literacy and overconfidence in one’s knowledge. Experimental evidence is coupled with an innovative financial literacy assessment, which measures general competence, numeracy skills, and overconfidence in one’s knowledge. Results indicate that overconfidence is a significant determinant of behavior. Specifically, overconfident individuals make larger contributions in the investment game. We also document that there is an escalated effect in overconfident individuals who are also exhibit risk loving preferences.     

Olympians or lemmings? the postmodernist fun run

The phenomenon of mass fun running in Britain dates from the early 1980s and displays much of the ideology of the ‘Sport For All’ campaign. While running as an activity can be viewed as a natural pastime, the notion of mass jogging, as exemplified by the Great North Run and the London Marathon, is more difficult to comprehend and requires further analysis. This paper argues that the mass fun run is an example of the ‘Society of Spectacle’: a commercial creature which is heavily reliant on media coverage and sponsorship and which serves as an endorsement and symbol of postmodern society. The media stresses the ‘tradition’ of such events and uses them as images of human decency and national unity. Yet the relationship between audience, participant and spectacle remains fragile and dependent upon commercial considerations.     

Calibration Weighting Methods for Complex Surveys

This paper presents a careful investigation of the three popular calibration weighting methods: (i) generalised regression; (ii) generalised exponential tilting and (iii) generalised pseudo empirical likelihood, with a major focus on computational aspects of the methods and some empirical evidences on calibrated weights. We also propose a simple weight trimming method for range‐restricted calibration. The finite sample behaviour of the weights obtained by the three calibration weighting methods and the effectiveness of the proposed weight trimming method are examined through limited simulation studies.     

Rhetoric, argument and impression management in hostile takeover defence documents

This exploratory study extends the analysis of narrative disclosures from routine reporting contexts such as annual reports and press releases to non-routine takeover documents where the financial consequences of narrative disclosures can be substantial. Rhetoric and argument in the form of impression management techniques in narrative disclosures are examined. Prior thematic content analysis methods for analysing good and bad news disclosures are adapted to the attacking and defensive themes in the defence documents of target companies subject to hostile takeover bids. The paper examines the incidence, extent and implications of impression management in ten hostile takeover defence documents issued by target companies listed on the London Stock Exchange between 1 January 2006 and 30 June 2008. Three impression management strategies – thematic, visual and rhetorical manipulation – are investigated using content analysis methodologies. The findings of the research indicate that thematic, visual and rhetorical manipulation is evident in hostile takeover defence documents. Attacking and defensive sentences were found to comprise the majority of the defence documents analysed. Such sentences exhibited varying degrees of visual and rhetorical emphasis, which served to award greater or lesser degrees of prominence to the information conveyed by target company management.While exploratory in nature, this paper concludes with suggestions for future more systematic research allowing for greater generalisations from the findings.     

Preventing drowning through design – the contribution of human factors

A number of routes can be followed towards the prevention of drowning, such as educating on water safety, installing barriers between non-intended users and water, mitigating the consequences of submersion incidents, and design. The human factor approach to safety is that design should always be the primary route. Human factors can be applied to the design of personal protective equipment such as buoyancy aids, barriers such as pool fencing, ancillary equipment such as swimming pool covers through to information and organisational factors such as safety signs and swimming campaigns. Design should consider all potential drowning scenarios and accommodate the characteristics of those at risk. A framework is presented with examples on how human factor principles can be applied to the design of potential drowning sites and products, with suggestions for methods and techniques that can be used in the key stages of predicting potential hazards and assessing risk.     

THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON TOBACCO ADVERTISING STRATEGIES

This paper contributes to the very limited literature examining the factors determining tobacco companies' advertising strategies. The paper explores whether firms in the UK tobacco market significantly changed their advertising expenditure in the face of proposed changes to the UK and European Commission tobacco advertising legislation. The results suggest that changes in legislation have little impact on firms' advertising strategies for existing brands, but that legislative changes impact upon product launch dates. Our results also offer some information on the nature of firm interdependencies in the UK tobacco industry.     

Internationalization of multi-source feedback systems: a six-country exploratory analysis of 360-degree feedback

In the past few years, few human resource practices have received as much attention as multi-source feedback systems (MSFSs). In the US and Canada, it is estimated that over one-third of organizations are using some form of MSFS and recent surveys show that this practice is still gaining popularity. Concurrently, a substantial amount of literature has focused on the effectiveness of this performance management practice. However, while few would dispute the popularity of MSFS, relatively little has been published on the use of these systems outside North America and thus little is known about their form and effectiveness in international contexts. This paper outlines the results of an international survey of MSFS. Interview data from HR managers and consultants from Argentina, Australia, China, Slovakia, Spain and the UK demonstrate that MSFS are being implemented, in slightly different ways, in each of these six countries. The main challenges in the application of MSFS in these various countries are the communication efforts necessary before and after implementation, and the inherent difficulty in giving and receiving feedback. The results of this study also provide data as to the perceived future of MSFS in each of the countries surveyed.