Does Policy Instability Matter for International Equity Markets?

We test whether policy risk is systematically priced in equity returns across 49 countries from 1995 to 2013. We construct two global policy risk factors based on the ratings from international country risk guide. They capture the policy risk from government instability (GOVLMH) and the quality of bureaucracy (BURLMH). Both factors are significantly and positively related to equity returns and the BURLMH factor carries a monthly risk premium of 65 basis points. A country with weaker economic and institutional conditions has more risk exposure to the BURLMH factor whereas a country with high democracy has more risk exposure to the GOVLMH factor. Overall, our study reveals the importance and complexity of policy risk in international equity markets.     

Limits‐to‐arbitrage,investment frictions,and the investment effect: New evidence

This study comprehensively reexamines the debate over behavioral and rational explanations for the investment effect in an updated sample. We closely follow the previous literature and provide several differences. Our tests include five prominent measures of corporate investment and corporate profitability in q‐theory and recent investment‐based asset pricing models. Both classical and Bayesian inferences show that limits‐to‐arbitrage tend to be supported by more evidence than investment frictions for all investment measures. When idiosyncratic volatility and cash flow volatility are used in measuring investment frictions, the inference is more favorable for the rational explanation.     

Dynamic portfolio choice without cash

We consider the dynamic mean–variance portfolio choice without cash under a game theoretic framework. The mean–variance criterion is investigated in the situation where an investor allocates the wealth among risky assets while keeping no cash in a bank account. The problem is solved explicitly up to solutions of ordinary differential equations by applying the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation system. Given a constant risk aversion coefficient, the optimal allocation without a risk-free asset depends linearly on the current wealth, while that with a risk-free asset turns out to be independent of the current wealth. We also study the minimum-variance criterion, which can be viewed as an extension of the mean–variance model when the risk aversion coefficient tends to infinity. Calibration exercises demonstrate that for large investments, the mean–variance model without cash yields the highest certainty equivalent return for both short-term and long-term investments. Furthermore, the mean–variance portfolio choices with and without cash yield almost the same Sharpe ratio for an investment with large initial wealth.     

Labour Shortage in Hong Kong: Causes,Consequences and Policies*

This paper addresses the issue of labour shortage in Hong Kong. Labour shortage is a secular phenomenon caused mainly by a stagnation in the growth of the labour force. The major long-term factors that explain this stagnation are a decline in fertility, a fall in the labour participation rate, a reduced intake of immigrants and a rising outflow of emigrants. Labour imposes a capacity constraint on the growth of the economy. This paper considers policies which may alleviate the supply constraint on the economy, including reducing emigration, importing labour and increasing immigration intake. These policies, which would lead to a faster expansion of the labour force, are evaluated and compared.     

新形势下越南经济发展面临的挑战及战略构想

越南政府期望通过经济的高速增长实现消灭贫穷的目标,但在当前世界经济面临明显的下行风险和全球资本流动性过剩的背景下,加上国内通货膨胀的压力,给越南政府的宏观调控带来了巨大的挑战。本文通过对目前越南经济发展中的宏观环境和金融环境的剖析,从金融制度改革等方面提出治理当前经济发展所面临问题的建议措施。     

Relationship between customer complaint behavior and demographic characteristics: A study of hotel restaurants' patrons

This study documented customer complaint behavior in hotel restaurants in Deadwood, USA, and examined the relationship between complaint behavior and demographic characteristics. The sample consisted of 250 hotel restaurant customers. It was found that the hotel restaurant customers tended to complain privately rather than taking public actions. Older, well-educated, customers with higher incomes tended to take private action to complain about their dissatisfaction more than younger, less educated customers with lower incomes. Based on results of the study, implications were suggested for industry practitioners to diminish the negative impact of complaint on hotel restaurants.     

Performance impact of middle managers' adaptive strategy implementation: The role of social capital

This article reconciles mixed findings about the performance impact of middle managers' strategy involvement. We propose that the relationship between middle managers' adaptive strategy implementation—through upward and downward influence—and objective business performance can be curvilinear and contingent on formal and informal structures. Applying a multilevel perspective to social networks, we empirically show that reputational social capital enhances the performance impact of middle managers' upward influence while informational social capital elevates the performance impact of their downward influence. The size of a business unit or region has differential moderating effects. The curvilinear effects of middle managers' upward influence and reputational and informational social capital on business unit performance reflect paradoxes. We discuss the implications of these findings for strategy implementation research and practice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applying the capture-recapture method to estimate road traffic deaths and injuries in three non-contiguous cities in the Philippines

In establishing goals for the Philippine road safety plan, police data were used. Police reports are likely underreporting. We apply capture-recapture analysis to determine expansion factors and estimate the true incidence. Three cities were visited where data on deaths (2014) and injury (January–March 2014) from hospitals, police and civil registry were collected. Matching was done to generate a final list of injured and dead individuals. The Chapman method was used for estimating the true number of cases. Police data exhibited underreporting in all site. Expansion factors of the police data range from 5.4 to 29× for deaths and 3.2 to 47× for non-fatal injuries. Expansion factors are likely useful to estimate the true incidence of road traffic injuries in areas with weak injury surveillance systems such as the Philippines.     

An integrated approach for port selection,ship scheduling and financial analysis

Ship routing and scheduling is an important activity for ship operators at both planning and operation levels. Ship operators, as commercial entities, have to closely monitor routing and scheduling in relation to their financial implications. This paper presents an integrated approach for port selection, ship scheduling and financial analysis. It aims to discuss the architecture and the major features of an integrated intelligent system for liner shipping. Currently many liners still perform ship routing and scheduling manually based on professional knowledge and experience. The proposed system is developed with an international liner company and is flexible to account for user inputs according to the real situation in the port selection module. Also the system provides two modes in the scheduling module: automatic and manual. The automatic mode makes use of an optimisation model to find the optimal proforma schedule (PFS). The manual mode allows manual modifications to be performed to accommodate the existing liners to allow for a smooth implementation. The financial analysis module examines the financial consequences of the PFS which are crucial for making commercial decisions. As a whole, the solution algorithm calls for an integrated approach that can integrate data from various sources with different levels of certainties and accuracies, knowledge gained from practical operations and optimisation routines. The system will be useful for ship operators in liner shipping.     

A travel demand model for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong

The purpose of the study was to determine what exogenous variables best explained the travel demand for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong. The 12 years (1984–1995) annual time series data of ‘number of Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals’, ‘China disposable income per capita’, ‘consumer price indices in Hong Kong and China’ and ‘exchange rates’ was used to develop a travel demand model. Seven exogenous variables were selected for the model through a literature review. An OLS multiple regression analysis was performed to identify the ‘best’ subset of seven exogenous variables to determine the demand model. The results showed that travel demand for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong could be explained by ‘disposable income per capita’ and ‘relaxation of visa requirements’.