住房抵押贷款证券化运作的难点及对策

目前在我国，尚不具备完善的住房抵押贷款证券化运作环境，这就使住房抵押款证券化运作面临许多难点。诸如，住房抵押贷款标准化的问题、证券化特设机构的设置问题、政府能否提供信用担保或保险的问题等。本拟在对这些难点进行研究的基础上，提出相应的对策建议，以推动我国住房抵押贷款证券化的发展。     

价值与实施导向下的历史文化名村保护与发展措施——以江西省峡江县湖洲村为例

系统科学评估村落价值特征是全面认识村落内涵与确定保护内容的关键环节,基于江西省湖洲历史文化名村的规划实践,构建符合村落语境的历史文化价值评估方法,建立多视角的价值体系分析框架。以价值研究为导向,基于村落各项价值特征的保护与延续,制定具有针对性的保护措施,从保护区划制定、山水环境保护、内部格局保护、建筑风貌保护以及文化脉络保护五个方面,探讨村落保护措施制定的系统方法。实施导向下,侧重从村庄的环境提升、产业引导与管理策略几个方面进行研究,确保村庄规划可以解决村民现实之困与未来之需,提升规划的可操作性,实现历史文化名村系统保护与可持续发展的双重目标。     

Institutional Investor Trading in a Short Investment Horizon: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

We examine the weekly trading activities of institutional investors in the Korean stock market. First, we find that average net trades by institutional investors this week are negatively related to one-week lagged returns, suggesting that they could be contrarian traders. Second, our finding shows that institutional investors’ net trades this week are positively related to the net trades next week, consistent with persistent trading and/or herding behavior. Third, we find that institutional net trades are positively related to the post one-week returns. Finally, our findings are most pronounced in the group of short-term institutional investors.     

管理层权力、大股东掏空对真实盈余管理的影响研究

基于A股上市公司2009-2014年的数据,论文研究了管理层权力、大股东掏空对真实盈余管理的影响。研究结果表明：管理层权力与真实盈余管理正相关;大股东掏空引发其与管理层的合谋,对管理层权力与真实盈余管理的正相关关系起到正向调节作用;同时,管理层权力与真实盈余管理的正相关关系及大股东掏空的正向调节作用在国有企业比非国有企业显著。     

Out‐of‐Sample Exchange Rate Forecasting and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: The Case of Japan

This study explores the respective out‐of‐sample exchange rate forecasting abilities of five macroeconomic fundamental models in comparison to a naïve random walk model for Japan during the post‐Bretton Woods era. To assess the influence of major economic changes, we estimate both linear and nonlinear models for all the macroeconomic fundamentals. Overall, most structural exchange rate models outperform a naïve random walk model in terms of forecasting accuracy in the short horizon. When the fundamentals are only linearly modelled, the forecasting ability of the Taylor rule is generally superior to other fundamental models. When the fundamentals are nonlinearly specified, the predictability of some other models rises dramatically to match that of the Taylor rule models in short and/or long horizons. Of importance, we determine that the yen/dollar exchange rate forecasting performance effectively improves in several fundamental models when influential economic changes are incorporated.     

Is There Excess Liquidity in China?

In this paper, we developed the recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2013) and used them to identify the beginning and the end of potential excess liquidity in the Chinese monetary market during the period from 1992 to 2013. The result indicates that excess liquidity existed from the third quarter of 2002 to 2013. The analysis shows that since 2003, the inflationary pressure of excess liquidity has remained high. We provide evidence supporting the money illusion hypothesis in China. The recursive unit root test is suited to practical implementation with time series and delivers a consistent date‐stamping strategy for determining the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations show that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains.     

考虑买方议价能力的双寡头供应商技术创新决策

在大型零售商的买方议价能力不断增强的背景下,研究了竞争供应商的技术创新决策问题。构建了由异质双寡头供应商、大型零售商组成的纵向市场结构模型,并将大型零售商的议价能力引入模型,考察了大型零售商议价能力条件下供应商的最优技术创新决策,分析了零售商议价能力的变化对不同供应商的技术创新决策的影响。研究发现:大型零售商议价能力的增强促进了小型供应商的技术创新、抑制了大型供应商的技术创新;当零售商的议价能力大于某一临界值时,小型供应商的技术创新水平会高于大型供应商。最后通过具体算例验证了研究结论,分析了参数变化对研究结论的影响。     

入境游客情绪体验对忠诚度的影响研究——以西安回坊伊斯兰传统社区为例

情绪体验和忠诚度是消费者行为和营销管理研究的重要内容.文章在情绪体验和忠诚度文献梳理基础上,构建了游客情绪体验和忠诚度的结构方程模型,实证研究了入境游客在西安回坊旅游的情绪体验和忠诚度关系,结果显示:①入境游客在西安回坊的情绪体验对其重游意愿、消费意愿没有显著影响;②入境游客在该社区正面强烈情绪体验会导致其重游意愿;③入境游客在该社区内的情绪体验会直接导致其推荐意愿,即正面情绪体验导致正面推荐意愿,负面情绪体验导致负面推荐意愿.文章提出了该研究的未来方向,并特别指出,旅游地发展应更多关注游客负面情绪体验的诱发困素及后续行为,这对旅游地营销实践具有更为重要的指导意义.     

International competition and wage differentials - the case of Taiwan

This paper documents and investigates the structure of relative wages among skill groups (distinguished by gender, education and potential experience) in Taiwan over the period 1978 to 1990. To account for these changes, I construct a model of wage determination in which demographic groups are treated as separate inputs into the production process. Thus, the changes in relative wages are determined by (i) changes in the relative supply of input factors; (ii) changes in the product composition; and (iii) biased technical changes that shift the relative demand for inputs. Analysis of OECD trade statistics shows that manufacturing imports from Taiwan to OECD, the main source of derived demand for the unskilled labour, exhibited a time pattern that matches the overall relative demand shifts.