A Model of Financial Markets with Endogenously Correlated Rational Beliefs

This paper studies how communication amongst agents influences the equilibria of a financial economy. We set up a standard overlapping generations model with assets, while allowing for heterogeneous beliefs. The paper explicitly describes how communication causes the beliefs of the agents to be correlated. In particular, it is shown that communication may generate large fluctuations even if the unconditional probability beliefs themselves are independent. Because of the complex nature of the problem, we use simulations to examine the characteristics of the equilibria Part of the results presented in this paper is based on my Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I gratefully acknowledge the inspiration obtained from innumerable discussions with Mordecai Kurz about this subject over the years. Also, I appreciate comments from Kenneth J. Arrow and Peter J. Hammond as well as from the participants of the workshop at Stanford University, University of Tokyo and the 1st Illinois workshop in Economic Theory (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) and the anonymous referee     

A Model of Ethical Decision Making: The Integration of Process and Content

We develop a model of ethical decision making that integrates the decision-making process and the content variables considered by individuals facing ethical dilemmas. The process described in the model is drawn from Janis and Mann’s [1977, Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict Choice and Commitment (The Free Press, New York)] work describing the decision process in an environment of conflict, choice and commitment. The model is enhanced by the inclusion of content variables derived from the ethics literature. The resulting integrated model aids in understanding the complexity of the decision process used by individuals facing ethical dilemmas and suggests variable interactions that could be field-tested. A better understanding of the process will help managers develop policies that enhance the likelihood of ethical behavior in their organizations. Roselie McDevitt Sc.D. is Assistant Professor of Accounting at␣the Charles F. Dolan School of Business at Fairfield University in Fairfield, Connecticut. Dr. McDevitt teaches financial and managerial accounting. Her Primary areas of research are accounting education and accounting ethics. Catherine Giapponi is an Assistant Professor of Management at the Charles F. Dolan School of Business at Fairfield University in Fairfield, Connecticut. Dr. Giapponi teaches courses in management, organizational behavior, and strategy. Her primary areas of research are corporate governance and business ethics. Cheryl Tromley, Ph.D., is a Professor of Management at␣Fairfield University where she has taught management, organizational behavior, organizational communication, organizational␣culture, organization development, and diversity for 19 years. She has co-authored two editions of the text ``Developing Managerial Skills in Organizational Behavior'␣as well authored or co-authored a significant number of professional articles and presentations related to management and management education.     

Economic factors affecting human fertility in the developing areas of Southern Africa

South Africa's annual population growth rate, in the traditional sector, is 3.5% (1980-2000), a rate similar to those experienced in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, and over which the World Bank has expressed concern. For the purposes of this study, economic factors explaining family size choice in the traditional sector were examined and linkages between family size decisions and socio-economic variables analysed. Household utility was maximised subject to resource constraints of time, labour and income, from which a demand curve for children was derived with emphasis on the opportunity cost of wives' time and the quantity-quality trade-off for children. A stratified sampling technique was used to collect data from KwaZulu households in South Africa. Regression analysis was used to estimate the demand function and principal components analysis confirmed the underlying theoretical linkages. Results show that wife's education (expected income or opportunity cost), child help (benefits) and desired family size were important explanatory variables. Three components extracted represented the substitution effect, the income effect and child investment theory. Results show that investment in education, taken as a proxy for expected earnings, is a strong policy option for reducing family size.     

Seafood Purchasing Preferences of Hawaii Chefs: Comparing Actual Purchase to Stated Preferences From Conjoint Choice Experiment

This study investigated if Hawaii chefs use wild seafood products over farm-raised and local over imports. Chefs were asked to estimate their purchases for shrimp, tuna, mahimahi, and salmon. Chefs were also asked to choose products within conjoint choice experiments to indirectly determine their preferences. Price is the most important attribute for shrimp. Hawaii chefs would prefer wild and farm-raised local, fresh shrimp if it were competitively priced over low-priced imported and frozen alternatives. This result can be useful for the shrimp aquaculture industry in Hawaii. The low importance of production method when purchasing seafood should be further explored.     

Concern or apathy: the attitude of the public toward urban air pollution

It is important to understand public attitudes when designing policy instruments to motivate actions. Attitude is partially socially constructed and thus must be studied locally rather than inferred from other settings. This study explored public attitudes toward air pollution among Beijing residents through interviews and thematic analysis. In contrast to previous studies mostly focusing on a certain dimension of attitudes, we attempted to show an initial picture of attitudes in three dimensions, knowledge and belief, perception and concern, and covert and overt behaviors, and identify underlying factors accounting for such attitudes. The results showed that the interviewees largely knew the sources and impacts of air pollution but also demonstrated misunderstandings; half of them perceived air pollution as ‘severe’ and three-fourths of them showed little concern about air pollution; their protective and mitigation responsive behaviors were inadequate. Factors affecting such attitudes, both existing and missing in current literature, were identified. Perceived air pollution is determined by sensory cues and imagination, and mediated by lived experiences and place identity. Lack of concern about air pollution can largely be explained by a feeling of uncontrollability and the crowding effect in competing for attention. This lack is further influenced by the perceived benefits of living in large cities, perceived fairness of the impact across the population, and perceived delay of the health impacts posed by air pollution. Protective behaviors, specifically wearing facemasks, are influenced by perceived severity, vulnerability, efficacy, and barriers. Mitigation behavior, which refers to reducing car use in this case, is discouraged by a lack of feeling responsible and by perceived inconvenience and ineffectiveness. At an academic level, the results of this exploratory study are expected to provide a base for further investigations of factors affecting public attitudes. From a policy perspective, the results should provide information for designing policy instruments to raise awareness and motivate actions to cope with air pollution.     

Sustainable Retailing – Influencing Consumer Behaviour on Food Waste

The aim of this research was to examine the influence of a UK national retailer on its customers' food waste behaviour. Using six communication channels (in‐store magazine, e‐newsletter, Facebook site, product stickers and in‐store demonstrations), Asda presented standard food waste reduction messages to its customers during two time limited periods in 2014 and 2015. Six national surveys over 21 months tracked customers' self‐reported food waste. Our results showed that the combined communication channels and repeated messages over time had a significant effect on reducing food waste of customers. Surprisingly, customers who said they did not recall seeing the messages also reduced their food waste, showing the wider influence of interventions. Those who saw a food waste reduction message saved an estimated £81 annually from reducing food waste. The main conclusion of this paper is that retailers can influence the pro‐environmental behaviour of customers using conventional communication channels; however, repeat messages are needed in order to have a long‐term impact. © 2017 The Authors. Business Strategy and the Environment published by ERP Environment and John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Interdependent bank runs under a collapsing fixed exchange rate regime

This paper provides a framework for simultaneous multiple bank runs in a country experiencing a currency crisis. The correlation of bank runs increases as the proportion of debts from foreign creditors (indexed to the dollar) to domestic creditors (indexed to the domestic currency) increases. Moreover, when the share of dollar debt is sufficiently high, this interlinkage is perfect; that is, runs occur in all banks or not at all. Consequently, a situation exists where even a solvent bank cannot borrow in the interbank market. These findings imply that as the domestic banking sector becomes increasingly dependent on dollar debt, there is a heightened requirement for dollar reserves and a lender-of-last-resort facility.     

The Transformation of Collectively Owned Enterprises and its Outcomes in China, 2001–05

Previous studies have primarily focused on the relative success of collectively owned enterprises (COEs) in China during the early years of reform, but they have ignored the agency problems inherent in this type of organizational form that may be an obstacle to further improving performance in a changing environment. Drawing on agency theory and the privatization literature, we argue that the transformed COEs in the ongoing organizational transformation process may achieve better performance by reducing agency costs. We examine a sample of COEs in Chinese manufacturing industries and track their ownership statuses from 2000 to 2005. Our findings reveal that the transformed firms achieved better performance than the traditional, untransformed COEs by mitigating agency problems.     

IN SEARCH OF OWNERS: PRIVATIZATION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES

Experiments in privatizing enterprises in transition economiesabound, from extensive efforts at sales to strategic owners(as in Estonia and Hungary), to programs based primarily oninsider buyouts (as in Russia and Slovenia), to innovative massprivatization programs involving the creation of large and powerfulnew financial intermediaries (as in the Czech and Slovak republicsand Poland). Each approach has inherent strengths and risks.But if the objectives are to sever the links between the stateand the enterprises, to school the population in market basics,and to foster further ownership change, the initial weight ofevidence seems to favor significant reliance on voucher privatization,especially given the difficulty most countries have findingwilling cash investors.