通胀目标调整、政策可信度与宏观调控效应北大核心

本文通过构建包含范式转变特征的DSGE模型,对通胀目标调整过程中的结构性变化以及政策可信度如何影响这一结构转变进行研究,并在此基础上分析通胀目标调整过程中政策可信度对宏观经济波动的调控效应。本文分析得到:在政策当局做出政策目标调整后,如果市场预期这一政策可信,那么主要经济变量将会在政策调整期内达到目标均衡水平;反之,如果市场预期这一政策不可信,那么市场预期和政策目标之间的分歧将使得主要经济变量偏离目标均衡水平,导致政策调整无法实现其既定目标。同时,政策可信度不仅有助于实现既定的政策目标,还能降低政策实施过程中的经济波动,具有较好的宏观调控效应,从而降低政策实施成本。特别是,政策可信度对宏观经济波动的这一稳定效应在中长期内更为明显。本文分析为理解经济结构性转变过程中的政策信用和预期管理等问题提供了一些新的思路和方法。     

基于Rhino+Grasshopper的风景环境 复杂地形道路选线设计算法模型研究

在风景园林规划设计中，当前使用ArcGIS作为道路自动选线工具的研究较多，但该方法在小区域内无法取得较为精准的选线结果。基于Rhino+Grasshopper平台，对Dijkstra最短路径算法、遗传算法及道路选线影响因素进行研究，构建了参数化风景环境道路自动选线模型。使用参数化设计生成的路径符合风景区低影响开发和低成本建设的原则，且路径曲线最大限度满足风景区道路极限平曲线现行规范值。构建的参数化模型可以解决所有同类型问题且便于调整和优化，为风景环境道路选线提供了新的解决方法。     

The dynamics of the house price-to-income ratio: Theory and evidence

The house price-to-income ratio (PIR) is widely used as an affordability indicator. This paper complements the cross-sectionally focused literature by proposing a tractable model for the PIR dynamics. Our model predicts that the PIR is very persistent and is correlated to the lagged aggregate output. Cross-country analysis confirms this prediction and provides evidence for a long-term, positive, and significant relationship between PIR and aggregate production. Our results hint at the construction of an early warning system for housing market mispricing. Our tractable formulation of a stochastic money growth rule may carry independent research interest.     

US macroeconomic surprises and the emerging-market sovereign CDS market

Our primary aim is to examine whether US macroeconomic surprises affect the slope of the term structure of ‘sovereign credit default swap’ (SCDS) spreads in emerging markets. Our empirical results show that positive (negative) US macroeconomic surprises are likely to reduce (increase) the term structure slope of SCDS spreads in emerging countries. We find that the slope values in emerging markets are positively related to future market returns over 1- and 2-day horizons. Our results provide general support for the future informational role played by SCDS spreads for the national stock market within emerging markets.     

Different momentum effects across countries: An explanation based on investors' behavior

We establish a model in which speculators use feedback trading characteristics to infer the behavior of irrational investors and induce them to trade. We also discuss the stability and time series of asset prices. Our results show that: (1) speculators have speculation and arbitrage demands and make “noise” to induce irrational investors to trade, (2) the time series of asset prices show stable momentum and a reversal effect when fundamental traders dominate the market, and (3) momentums are unstable and perform poorly under extreme circumstances. Our article offers a unique approach to understanding the micro mechanism of different momentum effects in various markets and suggests a plausible theoretical framework to illustrate such differences.     

CEO overconfidence and the level of short-selling activity

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study examines the impact of CEO overconfidence on the level of short-selling activity, as proxied by the short interest ratio. This research...     

Love thy neighbour: Evidence from capital structure decisions

We examine how the peer effects arising not only from the leading firm but also from a slightly better performing firm affect the capital structure decisions of a firm. There is a large body of literature documenting the importance of peer effects, but it is unclear whether managers pay close attention to activities of slightly better performers. This study uses both book- and market-value based approaches to estimate the peer effect measures. Our analysis shows that: (1) our peer effect measures induce the convergence of the follower firms' capital structure towards better performing firms; and (2) the capital structure converges more towards a slightly better performer.     

Dynamic mean–variance problem with frictions

Finance and Stochastics - We study a dynamic mean–variance portfolio selection problem with return predictability and trading frictions from price impact. Applying mean-field type control...     

导民善法，实业良伴——清末社会变革 前夕武汉地区自创公园倡议与实践

中国近代公园的产生和发展是一个不断将西方公园 理论与实践成果融入各地特殊的自然、经济、社会、文化情 境，并不懈改良与创新的本土化过程，由此形成近代公园鲜明 的本土特色。以清末社会变革前夕，洋务运动重镇武汉的公园 营建倡议及相关实践活动为研究对象，通过对其早期公园计划 与营建的背景、内容、成效、局限等的溯源考察，探讨晚清 公园理念与实践萌动之时的内容和特征，尝试对本土“公园” 概念的最初形成过程及影响因素进行分析，总结特殊历史情 境下中国近代公园的本土化路径。清末官方进行的公园建设相 关的探索、尝试，奠定了中国近代公园除娱乐属性以外的“教 育”“商贸”“科研”等一系列重要特征，并使得公园作为 “文明”“进步”象征的理念得以广泛传播。厘清这一历史过 程对深刻理解中国近代园林嬗变的内在动因具有积极意义。