Examining the credibility of macroeconomic forecasts: Null of cointegration approach

In this study we examine the accuracy of forecasts of a select group of major macroeconomic variables, representing both the real and the financial sector of the economy. The theoretical foundations are similar to the one used to study exchange rate expectations, i.e. a verification of consistency and rationality in forecast formation. The empirical measure of accuracy is consistency in the expectation formation process, a precursor to rational forecasts. Here we examine the cointegration properties of the actual and forecast series (at multiple horizons) using the modern null of cointegration approach. A very reliable and continuos data set, the ASA-NBER survey is used. We find evidence of short (long) term expectational consistency (inconsistency) i.e. bandwagon effects and a mean reversion tendency in case of real variables, while the forecasts of financial variables are inconsistent across all forecast horizons.     

Introduction to the Special Issue The Maturation of a Developing Industry: REITs in the 1990s

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

A firm's external environment and the hiring of a non‐standard workforce: implications for organisations

This article empirically investigates organisations' strategic decision to hire non‐standard employees. Using US firm‐level data and a matched pair design, the study shows that firms operating in a more competitive environment and a less uncertain environment have a higher proportion of non‐standard workers. Further, firms with a greater proportion of non‐standard workers show higher financial growth. And finally, in a highly competitive environment, those firms that hire more non‐standard workers achieve significantly higher financial growth. Similar growth is experienced by those firms in the low uncertainty environment hiring more non‐standard workers. These results are all consistent with the research hypotheses.     

Evolution of Statistics in India

This is a brief history of the evolution of official and academic Statistics in India which focuses mainly on the period 1930 to 1960 but traces its origins in antiquity and recent history. We also comment on how Statistics has continued to evolve since the 1960's. This is a history of both institutions and people, who built and shaped them, and of ideas.     

On the Validity of Veblen's Criticisms of Economic Orthodoxy: An Analysis of His Positions in the Light of Current Conditions and Economic Thought

A bstract . Thorstein Vehlen has received his share of brickbats and bouquets over the years. Rather than add to them, this study examines the validity of some of his criticisms of economic orthodoxy in the light of contemporary economic conditions and currents of economic thought Attempt is made to understand the ways in which orthodox theorists have viewed this heterodox thinker and to delineate the influence Veblen has exerted on us in modifying our approach to economic analysis.     

The Role of Managerial Stock Option Programs in Governance: Evidence from REIT Stock Repurchases

This article examines the role of stock option programs and executive holdings of stock options in real estate investment trust (REIT) governance. We study the issue by analyzing how the market reaction to a stock repurchase announcement varies as a function of the individual REIT's governance structure. In particular, we examine how executive and employee stock option holdings influence the market reaction to a firm's announcement of a stock repurchase. Using a sample of REIT repurchase announcements, we find that the market reacts more favorably to announcements by firms where executives have larger option holdings and the chief executive officer is not entrenched. Our results with respect to the roles of stock option holdings of executives and nonexecutives differ from those reported for a cross-section of non-REIT firms. While we find evidence supporting the importance of executive stock options in aligning the incentives of management and reinforcing the positive signaling associated with a repurchase announcement, we find little evidence that the market views REIT repurchases as being used primarily to fund option exercise. We attribute these findings to greater dependence by REIT investors on internal governance mechanisms (such as stock option programs) as a result of regulatory restrictions that limit external monitoring such as hostile takeovers.     

The effect of CEO ownership on the information content of reported earnings

This paper examines the relation between capital market perceptions of earnings quality and CEO equity ownership. Using the earnings response coefficients (ERCs) from annual returns–earnings regressions as a proxy for investor perceptions of earnings quality, we find that ERCs first increase and then decline across higher levels of CEO ownership with an inflection point around 25% ownership. Using analyst behavior as another proxy for the perceptions of financial analysts, we find that earnings forecasts are more accurate as ownership increases, but once ownership levels reach about 25%, accuracy declines with further increases in ownership. Forecast dispersion, forecast revision volatility, and analyst following decline and then increase across increasing levels of CEO ownership. Our results suggest that, for low levels of CEO ownership, earnings are perceived as being more informative about future firm performance as ownership increases. However, once ownership levels are high, earnings are perceived as being less informative with further increases in ownership.     

Uncertainty,economic growth its impact on tourism,some country experiences

This paper investigates in a time series framework over the period 1995 to 2016, the impact of uncertainty on tourism. The paper explores the causal association of both political uncertainty and economic uncertainty between tourism and other macroeconomic variables for the countries of France, Greece, and the United States. The political uncertainty is proxied through terrorism index and the economic uncertainty is explained through the Economic Policy Index. The unit root test and the ARDL cointegration are applied for unknown structural breaks. In the long run uncertainty adversely affects the tourism industry in all the countries under study.