Dissonante Öffentlichkeiten als Perspektive kommunikationswissenschaftlicher Theoriebildung

The article takes up an ongoing conversation among German communication scholarship about the question whether we need new theories and methods to understand the fundamental changes in public communication due to digitalization. We respond to an argument made by a group of academics around Christian Strippel and Annekatrin Bock, who maintain that communication scholarship has already begun to develop and to apply new and innovative methods to deal with new phenomena and problems that stem from digital technologies in communication. In our article we argue that the deficits in the current communication research lies in the discourse about theories. Thus, it is surprising that innovative methods are driving current studies, while the reflection about concepts and theories that help to understand the consequences of digitalization in public communication has been neglected. Provided that communication research is the academic discipline which does have particular competences in describing and explaining public spheres, we call for conceptual work and theory development that revisits public sphere theory to deal with the challenges of digital public communication in contemporary society. We propose to theorize public communication in the framework of dissonance. We suggest to introduce the notion of dissonance in public spheres in order to describe and explain the conditions of multilayered, synchronous and disparate processes of public communication and the contradictory consequences of changing public spheres. The latter are characterized by simultaneous entanglements of traditional mass communication and digital venues of communication which eventually create a hybrid media system. We also call for theory development that takes up critical, participatory and constructivist approaches of public sphere theory such as antagonistic pluralism. However, since these approaches account for the conflicts and antagonisms of contemporary pluralist society but largely neglect communication processes and infrastructures, we suggest to also look into new approaches of digital communication, such as network theories and combine them with the concepts of public sphere sociology. We think that it would be instructive and fruitful to use this newly developed framework of dissonance in public sphere to study communication processes and practices in journalism, civil society and political communication.Our article is organized in three sections. In the first part we discuss the terminology of dissonant communication and review approaches to dissonance as opposed to consonance. We revisit communication theory and music theory in order to develop a definition of dissonance. In the second section we take up concepts of public sphere which stress the coexistence of contradictions and antagonistic voices in the public realm which do not converge into consonance or consensus. We revisit studies on the nature of digital communication which focuses on network theories of communication and call for combining these two trajectories of social thought. In the third section of our article we propose a research agenda that focuses on the conditions of dissonance in public communication and the consequences of communication in dissonant public spheres for information flows and inclusion demands in contemporary society. Finally we argue that dissonant public spheres can be observed and should be studied in the fields of journalism, civil society and political communication. Thus, future research should focus on these areas.     

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THE ROLE OF TIME‐VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHANGES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth

This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world real GDP growth using mixed-frequency models. It shows that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. Specifically, the best-performing model yields impressive gains with MSPE reductions of up to 34% at short horizons and up to 13% at long horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark. The global economic conditions indicator also contains valuable information for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. This indicator is used to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the U.S., the OECD area, and the world economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and the main factors that drive the nowcasts are quantified.     

Farmers’ performance and subject pool effect in decentralized bargaining markets

We report results from a decentralized bargaining market experiment conducted with farmers and students. Our results indicate that despite its bad reputation, performance is highly efficient (although not as efficient as the competitive equilibrium prediction). Farmers and students perform similarly regarding quantities, prices, and allocative efficiencies, but not regarding payoff allocations between buyers and sellers.     

WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING OIL PRICES

Central banks routinely use short‐horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook. We address a number of econometric issues specific to the construction of quarterly oil price forecasts in the United States and abroad. We show that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed vector autoregressive models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate real‐time forecasts overall among a wide range of methods, including quarterly averages of forecasts based on monthly oil futures prices, no‐change forecasts, and forecasts based on regression models estimated on quarterly data.     

Managing innovation dilemmas: The cube solution

Innovation has become a universal feature of corporate life. Almost no company can survive without innovation. However, when it comes to developing innovation strategies, managers often are left alone to decide which innovation types to pursue, how to balance them in an overall portfolio, how to allocate resources, and how to implement them. In short, managers face a variety of innovation dilemmas. One of the most pertinent problems is how to distinguish innovation types in a meaningful way. In this article, we introduce the innovation cube, a tool that helps position innovation types in a managerially meaningful way. Once managers know how to relate and compare their innovation types to those of other companies, the cube helps them to better formulate their innovation strategy.