Deconstructing Herding: Evidence from Pension Fund Investment Behavior

In this paper, we examine herding across asset classes and industry levels. We also study what incentives managers at various layers of the financial industry face when investing. To do so, we use unique and detailed monthly portfolios between 1996 and 2005 from pension funds in Chile, a pioneer in pension-fund reform. The results show that pension funds herd more in assets that have more risk and for which pension funds have less market information. Furthermore, the results show that herding is more prevalent for funds that narrowly compete with each other, namely, when comparing funds of the same type across pension fund administrators (PFAs). There is much less herding across PFAs as a whole and in individual pension funds within PFAs. These herding patterns are consistent with incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks, and might be also driven by market forces and partly by regulation.     

Oil price dynamics,macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation

What is the role of financial speculation in determining the real oil price? We find that while macroeconomic shocks have been the main real oil price upward driver since mid-1980s, financial shocks have sizably contributed since early 2000s as well, and at a much larger extent since mid-2000s. Even though financial shocks contribute 44% out of the 65% real oil price increase over the period 2004–2010, the third oil price shock is a macro-finance episode: macroeconomic shocks actually largely account for the 2007–2008 oil price swing. While we then find support to the demand side view of real oil price determination, we however also find a much larger role for financial shocks than previously noted in the literature.     

Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy: An Event Study Analysis of the Brazilian Case

This article examines the relationship between the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Brazil and the stock market. We implement event study analysis and analyze the effect of the anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy decisions on the returns of the IBOVESPA index and 53 stocks. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect on the stock market, but is only responsible for a small proportion of market variation. The analysis at the sector level with expected returns identifies that the financial sector is the most affected by this policy, whereas with excess returns only industrial goods are significantly affected. Moreover, individual assets respond in a rather heterogeneous fashion to monetary policy; however, when we look at excess returns, we identify a reduction in the intensity and in the number of companies impacted by monetary policy. Finally, the monetary shock is explained by unanticipated variations in the unemployment rate, in the Industrial Production Index, in the General Market Price Index, and in the Broad Consumer Price Index.     

Implementing Fischer Black's Simple Discounting Rule

Corporate managers typically estimate the value of capital projects by discounting the project's expected future net cash flows at the cost of capital. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is generally used to estimate that cost. But, as anyone who has worked on the finance or business development staff of a public company can attest, there are major challenges in applying the CAPM, including largely unresolved questions about what constitutes the “market portfolio,” how to estimate market risk premiums, and how to estimate the betas of projects. In a short article published in Financial Management in 1988, Fischer Black proposed a valuation “discounting rule” that avoids all these problems—one that involves discounting a relatively certain (as opposed to an expected or average) level of operating cash flows at the risk-free rate. But Black's article does not address the question of how to calculate these “certainty equivalent” or “conditional” cash flows. In this article, the authors propose a way of implementing Black's rule that involves estimating the “conditional” cash flows in a three-step procedure:

• • Find a benchmark security that correlates with the project's cash flows;
• • Estimate the percentiles of the distribution in which the benchmark return equals the risk-free rate over different investment horizons;
• • Use information from corporate managers to assess the cash flows that define the same percentiles in the cash flow distributions.

As the authors point out, the virtue of Black's rule is that it shifts the focus of the analyst away from the assessment of discount factors and puts it squarely on the more challenging, and arguably more relevant, problem of estimating the project's cash flows.     

Demand for dairy products in the EU

In the EU dairy sector, given the remaining high protective tariffs and the quota system, the main factor that drives dairy product market prices is the demand. This paper evaluates the development of demand in the EU and presents estimates of consumption trends and forecasts for the future as well as estimates of elasticity with respect to prices and income in two major EU consumer countries: France and Italy. We use two methods to estimate the development of demand for dairy products, one based on a multi-stage demand system and another based on a single trend equation. The two methods generally lead to the same qualitative results but trend projections are larger using the demand system approach which is based on a shorter data period. This difference is thus partly explained by the fact that high trend projections are not sustainable over a long period. The results show a decreasing consumption of butter and fluid milk and an overall growth in protein and fat consumption. Nevertheless, the increase in fat consumption should be more moderate than the consumption of protein. The results also show that the demand for dairy products is relatively price inelastic but is more sensitive to changes in income (especially for butter and cheese categories). As shown by the use of a partial equilibrium model of dairy markets, the likely impact of the CAP reform strongly depends on the development of demand for dairy products in the EU. More research effort on demand analysis is therefore crucial in order to assess the impact of reforms or trade negotiations more accurately and effectively.     

Mechanics of good trade execution in the framework of linear temporary market impact

We define the concept of good trade execution and we construct explicit adapted good trade execution strategies in the framework of linear temporary market impact. Good trade execution strategies are dynamic, in the sense that they react to the actual realisation of the traded asset price path over the trading period; this is paramount in volatile regimes, where price trajectories can considerably deviate from their expected value. Remarkably, however, the implementation of our strategies does not require the full specification of an SDE evolution for the traded asset price, making them robust across different models. Moreover, rather than minimising the expected trading cost, good trade execution strategies minimise trading costs in a pathwise sense, a point of view not yet considered in the literature. The mathematical apparatus for such a pathwise minimisation hinges on certain random Young differential equations that correspond to the Euler–Lagrange equations of the classical Calculus of Variations. These Young differential equations characterise our good trade execution strategies in terms of an initial value problem that allows for easy implementations.     

Otra Empanada en la Parilla: Examining the Role of Culture and Information Sharing in Chile and Australia

One of the biggest assets of a firm is its information base. Included in this information base is a knowledge of prior errors and failures. Extant research suggests that while the propensity to share “bad news” (i.e. a prior error) is dependent on the cost of sharing, the perceived value of that cost may be culturally dependent. One area of interest that has received substantial attention in the prior literature has been cross‐cultural differences in negative information sharing in general, as well as the particular context in which the individual's superior is either present or absent during the information‐sharing process. Our study examines the role of the two cultural values (individualism/collectivism and to a lesser extent power distance) in explaining national differences in information sharing. By focusing on a sample from Chile and Australia, we were able to remove the regional cultural dimension of face, which has been inherent in prior studies that used Greater China as the representative of a collectivist society. Results from our quasi experiment show that when a supervisor is present during information sharing, collectivist Chilean decision‐makers are more willing to share negative information with their colleagues than their counterpart and individualist Australian decision‐makers. Our results also show that when a supervisor is absent, both Australian and Chilean decision‐makers are willing to share more negative information but the increase in the Australian propensity is significantly greater than that of the Chileans.     

Chinese and Indian Multinationals: A Firm-Level Analysis of their Investments in Europe

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on Chinese and Indian multinationals investing in Europe through an empirical investigation about their identity, their characteristics and the association between their features and their international strategies. The investigation exploits a database, named EMENDATA (Emerging Multinationals’ Events and Networks DATAbase), at the level of the investing firms. In relation to the mode of entry, we find that greenfield investments are a more likely option for large-sized companies. Moreover a high propensity for innovation is associated with a high probability to enter with an acquisition and with technological asset-seeking investments. Finally, high profitability is needed to invest in the EU-core countries.     

Keynesian theorising during hard times: stock-flow consistent models as an unexplored 'frontier' of Keynesian macroeconomics

This paper argues that the stock-flow consistent approach tomacroeconomic modelling (SFCA) is a natural outcome of the pathtaken by Keynesian macroeconomic thought in the 1960s and 1970s,a theoretical ‘frontier’ that remained largely unexploredwith the end of Keynesian academic hegemony. It does so in twosteps. First, it phrases the representative views of Davidson,Godley, Minsky and Tobin as different ‘closures’of the same (SFC) accounting framework, calling attention totheir similarities and logical implications. Second, it discussesunresolved issues within this approach and how it differs from‘modern’ theorising.     

BI-REGIONAL SAM LINKAGES: A MODIFIED BACKWARD AND FORWARD DISPERSION APPROACH

The aim of the paper is to apply a new backward and forward dispersion approach, starting from the original Rasmussen definition, which can give further insight into the interactions between industries and institutional sectors in a multiregional framework. The method is based on identification of the Macro Multipliers and the related impact components of a model based on a bi-regional SAM, which allows for the representation of the bi-regional multisectoral and multi-industry model in a two-dimensional space defined by the two dominating impact components. From such representation, we derive a set of indices of intraregional and interregional backward and forward dispersion that identifies key groups of industries and institutional sectors. The strength of these groups is further evaluated in terms of correlation of the impact components within the groups and cross-correlation between industry and institutional sectors groups. Comparative analysis among regional results gives a full picture of regional income policies.