REAL‐TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF DATA REVISIONS

We examine how the accuracy of real‐time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest‐available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple‐vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries

An examination of the short- and long-term relation between government spending and output in 51 developing countries reveals evidence consistent with cyclical ratcheting and voracity reflected in a tendency for government spending to increase over time. The main components of government spending are procyclical in some 40% of countries. Output and government spending are cointegrated for at least one of the spending aggregates in 70% of countries, implying a long-term relationship between government spending and output consistent with Wagner's law. In contrast, prior studies have found only weak support for Wagner's law for developing countries, although somewhat stronger support for industrial countries.     

An Analysis of International Accounting Codes of Conduct

The International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) has recently issued a revised “Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants” (IFAC Code). As a requirement for membership in IFAC, a national accounting organization must either adopt the IFAC Code or adopt a code of conduct that is not “less stringent” than the IFAC Code. In this paper, we examine the extent to which 158 national accounting organizations have adopted the revised IFAC Code as their own. Our results indicate that 80 of our sample organizations have adopted the IFAC Code (sometimes with minor modifications), while the remaining 78 opted not to utilize the model IFAC Code. We then test the hypothesis that national accounting organizations in lower income economies would be less likely to adopt the IFAC Code than those in high income economies. Our results do not support the hypothesis. We argue that one potential reason for such a finding is that adopting the IFAC Code may be a cost effective means of adopting a code of ethics for organizations in lower income economies.     

医保改革面临挑战

当前,许多国家仍存在医疗服务可得性差、医疗成本高昂、公共卫生支出效率低下等问题,医保改革面临重大挑战。医保改革目标存在两难—既要改善人们的健康状况,又要控制支出成本,因而提高公共卫生支出效率是改善社会健康状况的最优选择。各国政府的干预形式和公共卫生支出水平因国别、时间等的不同而变化。财政状况较好的新兴经济体需在保证财政可持续的前提下扩大基本医保覆盖面;发达经济体则应注重提升公共卫生支出的效率并限制支出增长速度。     

Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

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聚财容易守财难

想使自己退休后过上富足的生活吗?只要做到按时储蓄及合理投资,即使是普通人也能积攒下惊人的财富。但这些财富可能很难守住很长时间。现实情况是,在漫长的退休岁月中,很难保证自己养老的钱能不发生亏蚀,更不用说将其代代相传了。     

An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach

The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974–1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to Monitor Competitive Advertising

Marketing managers are becoming increasingly aware of the benefits from structured and continuous monitoring of competitor advertising activity. To know quickly and accurately how much competitors are spending on their media advertising and how they are utilizing their budgets can be of profound help to marketing management, advertising agency planners and creative teams. Systematic monitoring can signal moves made by competitors—introducing new products or product modifications, special offers, new strategies and approaches to markets not previously covered. Of interest to the analyst are innovations in competitor strategies.