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91.
First announcements and real economic activity 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Michael P. Clements 《European Economic Review》2010,54(6):803-817
The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy while the actual value of output growth does not. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to perceptions instead of the truth, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. The revisions to the initial estimates which define the final values of the observations are shown to be key in determining any relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy. 相似文献
92.
In this paper we investigate the multi-period forecast performance of a number of empirical self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models that have been proposed in the literature for modelling exchange rates and GNP, among other variables. We take each of the empirical SETAR models in turn as the DGP to ensure that the ‘non-linearity’ characterizes the future, and compare the forecast performance of SETAR and linear autoregressive models on a number of quantitative and qualitative criteria. Our results indicate that non-linear models have an edge in certain states of nature but not in others, and that this can be highlighted by evaluating forecasts conditional upon the regime. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
93.
Ro SeungHan Gallimore Paul Clements Sherwood Fan Gang-Zhi 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2019,59(2):272-294
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We investigate whether US real estate developers display herding in their building permit seeking behavior. We measure herding over the period... 相似文献
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Michael Clements 《国际广告杂志》2013,32(3):239-244
A study of US and UK advertising agencies' attitudes to handling industrial accounts offers some answers. 相似文献
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Stella Moisan Rodrigo Herrera Adam Clements 《International Journal of Forecasting》2018,34(4):566-581
This paper proposes a methodology based on a system of dynamic multiple linear equations that incorporates hourly, daily and annual seasonal characteristics for predicting hourly pollution concentrations for 11 meteorological stations in Santiago, Chile. It is demonstrated that the proposed model has the potential to match or even surpass the accuracy of competing nonlinear forecasting models in terms of both fit and predictive ability. In addition, the model is successful at predicting various categories of high concentration events, between 53% and 76% of mid-range events, and around 90% of extreme-range events on average across all stations. This forecasting model is considered a useful tool for helping government authorities to anticipate critical episodes of poor air quality so as to avoid the detrimental economic and health impacts of extreme pollution levels. 相似文献
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Jonathan Clements 《金融纵横》2007,(18)
没有人赞成在课堂上使用体罚。但在金融市场上,这却是我们经常要面对的。我不清楚最近股市重挫是否意味着新一轮跌势的开始。但是,和严厉的老师一样,今年的市场动荡为我们提供了很多经验教训,包括以下这六条: 相似文献
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Michael P. Clements David F. Hendry 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2005,67(Z1):931-956
Although out‐of‐sample forecast performance is often deemed to be the ‘gold standard’ of evaluation, it is not in fact a good yardstick for evaluating models in general. The arguments are illustrated with reference to a recent paper by Carruth, Hooker and Oswald [Review of Economics and Statistics (1998) , Vol. 80, pp. 621–628], who suggest that the good dynamic forecasts of their model support the efficiency‐wage theory on which it is based. 相似文献