Electricity sector reform in developing countries: an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization,competition and regulation

Electricity sectors in both developed and developing countries have been subject to restructuring to introduce private capital and increase competition. Although the effects of such reforms in a number of the developed economies are now well documented, the experience of developing countries is much less well researched. This paper provides an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization, competition and regulation on the performance of the electricity generation industry using panel data for 36 developing and transitional countries, over the period 1985–2003. The study identifies the impact of these reforms on generating capacity, electricity generated, labor productivity in the generating sector and capacity utilization. The main conclusions are that on their own privatization and regulation (PR) do not lead to obvious gains in economic performance, though there are some positive interaction effects. By contrast, introducing competition does seem to be effective in stimulating performance improvements.      

How can we reliably measure the occurrence of non-fatal injury?

Introduction In England, there is no reliable indicator for measuring the occurrence of non-fatal injury. As a consequence, we do not know whether the rates of non-fatal injury are increasing or decreasing. Purpose This paper addresses two questions: what criteria should an indicator of non-fatal injury satisfy, and can we identify an indicator that satisfies these criteria? Method Criteria for a good indicator of non-fatal injury are postulated, and an indicator based on serious long-bone fractures is proposed. Inferences from the literature and the various non-fatal injury data to which we have access are used to justify the criteria, and to test the proposed indicator of serious injury against the criteria. Findings There is significant evidence to justify the use of the following criteria to assess indicators of non-fatal injury: the indicator should reflect the occurrence of injury satisfying some case definition of anatomical damage; the injury cases ascertained should be important in terms of incapacity, impairment, disability, quality of life, cost, and/or threat-to-life; cases should be completely ascertained from routinely or easily collected data; and the probability of a case being ascertained should be independent of social, health services supply and access factors. Our analysis indicates that an indicator based on serious long-bone fracture admitted to hospital is likely to satisfy each of these criteria for a good indicator. Conclusion An indicator of non-fatal injury occurrence based on serious long-bone fractures exhibits favourable characteristics when judged against our criteria for a good indicator.     

Explaining participation in the self-service economy

To explain participation in the self-service economy, competing theorisations have variously depicted participants as rational economic actors, dupes, seekers of self-identity, or simply doing so out of economic necessity or choice. To evaluate motives for self-servicing in the home improvement and maintenance sector, a survey of 120 households in an English locality is reported. This will reveal that all theorisations are valid to differing degrees, and through a process of induction, will offer a typology that combines the existing theorisations by differentiating between ‘willing’ (rational economic actors, choice, identity seeking) and ‘reluctant’ (economic and market necessity, dupes) participants in self-servicing. The outcome is a call to evaluate the broader applicability of this typology when explaining the wider self-service economy.     

The Annuity Puzzle and an Outline of Its Solution

In his seminal 1965 paper, Yaari showed that, assuming actuarially fair annuity prices, uncertain lifetimes, and no bequest motives, utility-maximizing retirees should annuitize all of their wealth on retirement. Nevertheless, the markets for individual immediate life annuities in the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other developed countries have been small relative to other financial investment outlets competing for retirement savings. Researchers have found this situation puzzling, hence the so-called “annuity puzzle.” There are many possible explanations for the annuity puzzle, including “rational” explanations such as adverse selection, bequest motives, and incomplete markets; and “behaviorial” explanations, such as mental accounting, cumulative prospect theory, and mortality salience. We review the literature on the various plausible explanations given for the existence of the annuity puzzle, suggest ways of stimulating the demand for annuities, and suggest a few of the ingredients needed for further development of hybrid annuity products that may provide a solution to the puzzle.     

Information dynamics, dividend displacement, conservatism, and earnings measurement: a development of the Ohlson (1995) valuation framework

This paper extends the Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11, 661–687, 1995) equity valuation framework by demonstrating that dividend displacement continues to hold when dividends have a positive forecast coefficient in the linear abnormal earnings dynamic. The analysis demonstrates that such a predictive role for dividends implies a positive association between cum div book value of equity and the present value of expected abnormal earnings, consistent with both dividend displacement and accounting conservatism. While a signaling role for dividends is ruled out, a link between dividends, expected performance, and equity value is, however, demonstrated. The paper also considers a linear information model where an undefined variable replaces realized abnormal comprehensive earnings as an indicator of future performance. The role of this variable as a predictor of future abnormal comprehensive earnings is highlighted and the special case where it corresponds to recurring abnormal earnings is considered. This latter case provides useful implications for implementation of asset revaluations.     

Good in a crisis: the ontological institutionalism of social constructivism

This paper seeks to recover and establish the distinct (and distinctly) institutionalist social ontology that underpins social constructivism as an approach to political economic analysis. It views social constructivism as a profoundly normative mode of political inquiry which seeks to discern, interrogate and elucidate the contingency of social, political and economic change – restoring politics (broadly understood) to processes and practices typically seen to be inevitable, necessary and non-negotiable. More controversially, perhaps, it also sees social constructivism, after both Berger and Luckmann and Searle, as ontologically institutionalist. Social constructivism, it is argued, has its origins in the attempt to establish the ontological distinctiveness of institutions as ‘social’ (as distinct from natural or ‘brute’) facts. This leads it to a distinct understanding of the relationship between actors and the environment (both natural and social) in which they find themselves and to its characteristic emphasis on the ideational mediation of that relationship. That in turn leads it to a particular type of analytic purchase on political economic realities, reflected in its distinctive emphasis on interpretive ambiguity, the social construction of political and economic imperatives and on disequilibrium. The argument is illustrated and developed further through an elucidation of the implications of such a social constructivism for the analysis of the period of crisis through which we now acknowledge ourselves to be living.     

‘Joined-Up’ Policy-Making: Group Decision and Negotiation Practice

Creating public value is problematic in a world of austerity. Joint private and public, and public-public, projects are now an established way of creating public value. Establishing joint goals within a context of different ‘own goals’ is important and difficult. A particular issue facing many organisations in seeking to negotiate joint goals in a collaborative project is that of getting all the key managers from both organisations together over enough of a sequence of meetings for agreements to be meaningful and owned by those who will deliver the project. The development of such goals can be significantly enhanced by (1) using a Group Decision Support System (GDSS) and (2) using a powerful conceptualisation of a goals framework comprising: a goals system; ‘core goals’; ‘meta-goals’; ‘negative’ goals; and ‘above and beyond’ goals. In the case of negotiating joint goals the use of a GDSS has increased productivity to such an extent that powerful negotiated agreements can be achieved with all key managers in the room in as little as one meeting. The combination of high productivity, anonymity, and the structuring of the data has also facilitated the uncovering of ‘negative goals’, and the development of ‘meta-goals’ and ‘above and beyond’ goals. This paper uses three real cases to illustrate the significance of a Group Support System’s contribution and to illustrate the different types of goals. In doing so the paper suggests that facilitating such outcomes requires a carefully designed strategic conversation necessarily supported by a GDSS to enable group decision and negotiation in practice. Two of the cases are from public-public collaboration in the health field, and the other from a private-public setting.     

Nonmanipulable Bayesian testing

This paper considers the problem of testing an expert who makes probabilistic forecasts about the outcomes of a stochastic process. I show that, as long as uninformed experts do not learn the correct forecasts too quickly, a likelihood test can distinguish informed from uninformed experts with high prior probability. The test rejects informed experts on some data-generating processes; however, the set of such processes is topologically small. These results contrast sharply with many negative results in the literature.     

Communication,timing, and common learning

We study the effect of stochastically delayed communication on common knowledge acquisition (common learning). If messages do not report dispatch times, communication prevents common learning under general conditions even if common knowledge is acquired without communication. If messages report dispatch times, communication can destroy common learning under more restrictive conditions. The failure of common learning in the two cases is based on different infection arguments. Communication can destroy common learning even if it ends in finite time, or if agents communicate all of their information. We also identify conditions under which common learning is preserved in the presence of communication.