Do jet fuel price movements help forecast airline fares and the demand for air travel?

The paper studies the predictive content of jet fuel prices for the U.S. aviation industry through in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises. Our results suggest the possibility of limited improvements in the predictions of airline fares, and little evidence of predictability from jet fuel prices to measures of air travel demand.     

Disinflation without recession: Adaptive guideposts and monetary policy

Zusammenfassung Inflationsbek?mpfung ohne Rezession. — In dieser Arbeit wird das Theorem begründet, da\ ein einziger Pfad der Kontrollvariablen für die Gesamtnachfrage — hier der Geldversorgung — existiert, auf dem die Verminderung der Inflation auf das erwünschte Niveau vorgenommen werden kann, ohne da\ die Besch?ftigung auch nur zeitweise von der ?natürlichen Rate? abweicht — und das trotz gestaffelter und deshalb sich überlappender Lohnabschlüsse ohne Indexbindung mit fester Laufzeit. Der Beweis ist abh?ngig von dem Postulat perfekter Voraussicht in bezug auf die Entwicklung des durchschnittlichen Lohnsatzes und der Geldversorgung. In der Praxis würde der Erfolg eines solchen Programms zur Inflationsbek?mpfung die Einrichtung von Lohn-Leitlinien erfordern, die die Erwartungsbildung erleichtern.

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Résumé Une desinflation sans une récession. — Cet article établit un théorème de l’existence d’un sentier unique de la variable de contr?le d’agrégat-demande, ici l’offre d’argent, qui atteint à une réduction du taux d’inflation sur le niveau prescrit sans même une déviation temporaire d’emploi du taux ?naturel?, malgré de la présence des obligations de taux de salaire échelonnées et c’est pourquoi chevauchantes d’un type pas indexé et avec une durée fixée. La démonstration dépend du postulat de la prévoyance parfaite regardant le cours du salaire d’argent moyen et de l’offre d’argent. En pratique, le succès d’un tel programme de desinflation rendrait nécessaire une structure de terme des postes de guide de salaire comme aide en formation et des expectatives.

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Resumen Desinflación sin recesión. — En este artículo se establece un teorema sobre la existencia de una trayectoria única de la variable de control de demanda agregada, en este caso la oferta de dinero, que alcanza una reducción de la tasa de inflación al nivel prescrito sin siquiera una desviación temporal del empleo de la ?tasa natural?, a pesar de la presencia de promesas de tasas de salarios escalonados y traslapados de un tipo sin indexisación y de duración fija. La demostración depende del postulado de perfecta previsión con respecto al curso del salario monetario promedio y de la oferta de dinero. En la práctica, el éxito de un programa de desinflación de este tipo requerirá una estructura de condiciones indicativas para salarios como ayuda en la formación de expectativas.

     

Wives' motives and fertility

This analysis assumes that childhood learning has a strong impact on the measured motivations of adults. This study uses responses among 354 White married women in 1976 to the Thematic Apperception Test (TAT). Wives' responses to four pictures are expected to mirror the following four typologies: affiliation imagery (AFF), power imagery (POW), power and affiliation imagery (POWAF), and without references to affiliation or power (CULT). CULT is presumed to reflect the motivation of the wife in the average family. Expected relationships between these root motives and fertility are identified. Findings show that families with persuasive affiliative wives allocated more time to child care and had lower family incomes than other families. AFF wives worked fewer hours per week than other wives and allocated more time per child than other wives. Husbands helped them with child care sometimes or often. Households sacrificed material possessions for children. Findings did not support the inference that low income was due to husband's low earnings but did support the inference that low income might be due to the wives' short work week. The logistic model that controls for hours worked per week and number of years at the present job shows that wives were happiest in their marriage, if wives had high power motivation. Family income was a significant determinant of achievement satisfaction and not of affiliation satisfaction. Nerlove's hypothesis that there is an inverse relationship between wife's level of education and her taste for children was rejected. The wife's motivation toward her husband was an important factor that impacted on her preference for children and for work and her perceived level of utility. Wives who asserted themselves in socially acceptable situations (high in power motivations) were most likely to report having a happier than average marriage. Both affiliative and persuasive affiliative wives took satisfaction in their children's happiness and achievements.     

Information Privacy Research: Framework for Integrating Multiple Publics,Information Channels,and Responses

This article puts forth a framework for understanding critical consumer information privacy issues in direct and interactive marketing that consists of three broad dimensions: (1) multiple publics, (2) information channel developments, and (3) the publics' responses to privacy actions. Within this structure, the authors review and integrate existing research and issues, and identify an agenda for future research.     

Small firms and local economic development in South London

A growing body of literature has identified a number of potential constraints on small firm growth. Arguably, the severity of these constraints is closely related to the differing fortunes of industries and firms and the extent of localised external economies or diseconomies. This paper looks at the constraints facing manufacturing and business service firms in a large urban area. The paper draws on findings from a survey of small firms in Croydon. Data from the survey reveal some differences between small manufacturing and service firms in their experience of the urban environment. Physical constraints on expansion and labour shortages appear to be hindering small manufacturing firms in Croydon. Deficiencies in specific niches of the local business service sector may be preventing small business service firms from complementing and enhancing their internal capabilities. The problems facing small firms in Croydon and the sorts of local policy initiatives being developed are likely to be applicable to other large urban areas.     

Oil prices implied volatility or direction: Which matters more to financial markets?

We examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on US stock returns by industry using the US Oil Fund options implied volatility OVX index and a GJR-GARCH model. We test the effect of the implied volatility of oil on a wide array of domestic industries’ returns using daily data from 2007 to 2016, controlling for a variety of variables such as aggregate market returns, market volatility, exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation expectations. Our main finding is that the implied volatility of oil prices has a consistent and statistically significant negative impact on nine out of the ten industries defined in the Fama and French (J Financ Econ 43:153–193, 1997) 10-industry classification. Oil prices, on the other hand, yield mixed results, with only three industries showing a positive and significant effect, and two industries exhibiting a negative and significant effect. These findings are an indication that the volatility of oil has now surpassed oil prices themselves in terms of influence on financial markets. Furthermore, we show that both oil prices and their volatility have a positive and significant effect on corporate bond credit spreads. Overall, our results indicate that oil price uncertainty increases the risk of future cash flows for goods and services, resulting in negative stock market returns and higher corporate bond credit spreads.     

Physical activity and social connectedness in single‐parent families

Little is known about how to promote physical activity in single‐parent families. We evaluated physical activity, barriers to physical activity and social connectedness changes in single‐parent families following a one year YMCA programme. At baseline, 106 single parents completed a survey about physical activity, barriers to activity and social connectedness. Sixty‐four parents provided data after 12 months. Self‐reported minutes of physical activity per week decreased over the 12 months (p < 0.05). However, perceptions of activity over the 12 months increased 44% for parents and 66% for children. Family‐related barriers that decreased following the programme included a lack of time and affordability of existing opportunities. Compared with their baseline responses, parents at 12 months showed an increased frequency of visits with friends (p < 0.05). Difficulties in recruiting and retaining single parents to complete the evaluation are testimony to the current poor understanding of the leisure needs of single‐parent families. The results provide direction for future research.