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921.
The main goal of both Bayesian model selection and classical hypotheses testing is to make inferences with respect to the
state of affairs in a population of interest. The main differences between both approaches are the explicit use of prior information
by Bayesians, and the explicit use of null distributions by the classicists. Formalization of prior information in prior distributions
is often difficult. In this paper two practical approaches (encompassing priors and training data) to specify prior distributions
will be presented. The computation of null distributions is relatively easy. However, as will be illustrated, a straightforward
interpretation of the resulting p-values is not always easy. Bayesian model selection can be used to compute posterior probabilities for each of a number of
competing models. This provides an alternative for the currently prevalent testing of hypotheses using p-values. Both approaches will be compared and illustrated using case studies. Each case study fits in the framework of the
normal linear model, that is, analysis of variance and multiple regression. 相似文献
922.
Governments around the world are beginning to embrace a new form of environmental regulation – mandatory disclosure of information.
While information disclosure programs appear to have an impact on subsequent firm behavior – often resulting in lower levels
of pollution – little is known about the costs and benefits of these programs and whether or not they enhance social welfare.
This paper presents a simple bargaining model where mandatory information disclosure is used to overcome a lack of information
on the part of the public. We characterize the conditions under which information disclosure will lead to a reduction in emissions,
and ultimately, the conditions under which it will enhance social welfare. Several extensions of the model are briefly explored,
including the effect of two sources of pollution – only one of which is subject to information disclosure.
This paper was prepared while V. Santhakumar was a Visiting Scholar at the Vanderbilt Center for Environmental Management
Studies, Vanderbilt University. 相似文献
923.
We study the optimal timing of adoption of a cleaner technology and its effects on the rate of growth of an economy in the
context of an AK endogenous growth model. We show that the results depend upon the behavior of the marginal utility of environmental
quality with respect to consumption. When it is increasing, we derive the capital level at the optimal timing of adoption.
We show that this capital threshold is independent of the initial conditions on the stock of capital, implying that capital-poor
countries tend to take longer to adopt. Also, country-specific characteristics, as the existence of high barriers to adoption,
may lead to different capital thresholds for different countries. If the marginal utility of environmental quality decreases
with consumption, a country should never delay adoption; the optimal policy is either to adopt immediately or, if adoption
costs are “too high”, to never adopt. The policy implications of these results are discussed in the context of the international
debate surrounding the environmental political agenda.
相似文献
924.
In this paper we present estimates of the responses of individuals to marginal tax rates in their reporting of income, using
data from individual tax returns for the year 1995. One estimation method is ordinary least squares regression. A second method
uses quantile regression, which provides evidence on behavioral responses at different points (or quantiles) in the distribution
of income and so is relevant to the question of whether the responses of, say, the rich differ from those at other points
in the income distribution. Our results clearly indicate that marginal tax rates affect the reporting decisions of individuals.
However, there are significant differences in the marginal tax rate reporting responses for the various types of reported
income, there are major differences across income classes, and there are notable differences in the estimated responses across
estimation methods.
相似文献
James AlmEmail: |
925.
In this paper we present an endogenous growth model to analyze the growth maximizing allocation of public investment among
N different types of public capital. Using this general model of public capital formation, we analyze the stability of the
long-run equilibrium and we derive the growth-maximizing values of the shares of public investment allocated to the different
types of public capital, as well as the growth-maximizing tax rate (amount of total public investment as a share of GDP).
The empirical implication of the model is that both the effects of the shares of public investment and the tax rate on the
long-run growth rate are non-linear, following an inverse U-shaped pattern. Our analysis is completed by showing that the
growth-maximizing shares of public investment and the growth-maximizing tax rate also maximize welfare in the decentralized
economy. 相似文献
926.
Vadim Marmer 《Empirical Economics》2008,35(1):101-122
This paper presents tests for the null hypothesis of no regime switching in Hamilton’s (Econometrica 57:357–384, 1989) regime
switching model. The test procedures exploit similarities between regime switching models, autoregressions with measurement
errors, and finite mixture models. The proposed tests are computationally simple and, contrary to likelihood based tests,
have a standard distribution under the null. When the methodology is applied to US GDP growth rates, no strong evidence of
regime switching is found.
I thank Don Andrews, Peter Phillips, Yuichi Kitamura, Anat Bracha, Patrik Guggenberger, Orit Whiteman and three anonymous
referees for useful comments and suggestions. 相似文献
927.
The Economic Value of Water Quality 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stated preference values for water quality ratings based on the US Environmental Protection Agency National Water Quality
Inventory ratings provide an operational basis for benefit assessment. Iterative choice survey results for a very large, nationally
representative, Web-based panel imply an average valuation of $32 for each percent increase in lakes and rivers in the region
for which water quality is rated “Good.” Valuations are skewed, with the mean value more than double the median. Sources of
heterogeneity in benefit values include differences in responses to average water quality information and the base level of
water quality. Conjoint estimates are somewhat lower than the iterative choice values. The annual economic value of the decline
in inland US water quality from 1994 to 2000 is over $20 billion.
相似文献
928.
When modelling rating transitions as continuous-time Markov processes, in practice, time-homogeneity is a common assumption,
yet restrictive, in order to reduce the complexity of the model. This paper investigates whether rating transition probabilities
change after the origination of debt. Accordingly, we develop a likelihood-ratio test for the hypothesis of time-homogeneity.
The alternative is a step function of transition intensities. The test rejects time-homogeneity for rating transitions observed
over 7 years in a real corporate portfolio. Especially 1-year transition probabilities increase over the first year after
origination. This time effect suggests that banks should manage their credit portfolios with respect to the age of debt.
相似文献
929.
Corporate social responsibility: attributions,loyalty, and the mediating role of trust 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Pavlos A. Vlachos Argiris Tsamakos Adam P. Vrechopoulos Panagiotis K. Avramidis 《Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science》2009,37(2):170-180
This study investigates whether consumers’ perceptions of motives influence their evaluation of corporate social responsibility
(CSR) efforts. The study reveals the mediating role of consumer trust in CSR evaluation frameworks; managers should monitor
consumer trust, which seems to be an important subprocess regulating the effect of consumer attributions on patronage and
recommendation intentions. Further, managers may allay the negative effects of profit-motivated giving by doing well on service
quality perceptions. On the other hand, appropriately motivated giving continues to positively affect trust regardless of
the performance of the firm on service quality provision. 相似文献
930.
On the importance of matching strategic behavior and target market selection to business strategy in high-tech markets 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stanley F. Slater G. Tomas M. Hult Eric M. Olson 《Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science》2007,35(1):5-17
Business strategy is fundamentally concerned with the actions required to create superior customer value in the firm’s target
markets with the ultimate goal of achieving superior performance. Marketing theory suggests that two critical marketing activities
required to achieve this end are: (1) the adoption of appropriate strategic behaviors (i.e., customer-oriented, competitor-oriented,
technology-oriented) and (2) targeting of the appropriate market segments (i.e., innovators, early adopters, early majority,
late majority, laggards). This study builds on prior research which demonstrates that the strategic behavior—firm performance
relationship is contingent on the firm’s strategy by examining this relationship in high tech markets and by considering the
incremental contribution of appropriate target market selection. Responses from 160 senior marketing managers in high-tech
firms reveal strong support for our framework. Thus, this study provides useful guidance to executives and managers in high-tech
firms regarding the steps that they should take to increase their probability of success.
相似文献
Eric M. OlsonEmail: |