模型不确定性条件下的货币政策决策分析

为什么中央银行在制定货币政策时往往是比较谨慎或保守的?从具体的货币政策规则的经验估计如泰勒规则看,这些货币政策比具体经济模型所要求的最优货币政策更为保守。本文从模型不确定性及决策者对不确定性态度变化的角度,运用美联储数据进行实证来解释这一现象。经过分析发现,若与降低利率的变动相比,央行更为关心产出缺口的稳定性,则央行对模型不确定呈厌恶或呈中性将会大大降低泰勒规则中的反应系数,随之产生较为保守的货币政策,若央行对不确定性呈偏好,则产生较为积极的货币政策。     

我国股票型开放式基金赎回风险研究

本文根据我国资本市场的变化,创造性地将我国股票型基金的发展区分为两个不同阶段,通过建立平行数据模型对其赎回风险影响因素及其效果进行对比研究。实证研究发现：（1）投资者更偏好成立时间短的基金;（2）基金的“赎回异象”更容易发生在证券市场行情好的时候;（3）分红确实起到了阻止投资者赎回的目的。     

价值工程在组织改进设计中的应用

本文将价值工程这一重要的管理技术和方法引入到组织改进设计中,并系统地介绍了开展这项有理论和现实意义工程的方法与步骤,最后应用实例加以了分析说明,以期实现组织改进设计时的“降低成本、提高功能、促进创新”。     

按照“五有”标准锻造人民满意的人事干部队伍

今年是无锡市学习实践科学发展观活动的推进年,是“科技创业和服务外包促进年”,也是应对国际金融危机严峻挑战、保持经济社会平稳较快发展的决战之年。在新的形势及任务面前,要更好地实施“人才强市”战略,促进科学发展,人事系统队伍的自身建设显得非常重要,必须放在重要的位置抓紧抓好。     

基于知识图谱的国际科技人力资源研究综述

根据SSCI(社会科学引文索引)数据库提供的数据资料,依据科学计量学原理,运用CiteSpace软件绘制出知识图谱,对国际范围内的科技人力资源研究情况进行了关键词共现、文献共被引及作者共被引等方面的分析;对该领域的研究热点、最有影响力的引文及高频被引作者等进行研究和探讨;为国内的相关研究提供参考和借鉴。     

区域战略产业选择研究

战略产业与支柱产业、主导产业及新兴产业均不同。以产业潜力效应和产业引力效应为基准,运用层次分析法和波士顿矩阵模型研究了区域战略产业的选择问题,为合理选择区域战略产业提供了一种新思路。     

基于模糊综合评价的技术创新合作伙伴选择模型研究

首先对国内外学者"合作伙伴选择"的相关研究成果进行了剖析,找出了现有研究中存在的不足。在此基础上,从相容性、信誉度和互补性3个方面构建评价指标体系,并运用Theil不均衡指数和模糊综合评价方法建立了技术创新合作伙伴选择模型;最后通过数据仿真计算,对模型的科学性和可操作性进行了检验。结果表明:该模型具备一定的科学性和较强的可操作性     

The Relation between Abnormal Main Fund Movements and Subsequent Earnings Management: Political Costs and Political Connections

Movement of major fund1 flows has great impact on capital markets, especially in China. This study investigates the relationship between abnormal main fund movements and firm’s earnings management behavior, specifically, whether the abnormal main fund movements cause firms to keep a low profile for “self-protection” from being detected by the government. The empirical results of this study suggest that: (1) The mandatory disclosure of the “Top-ten circulating stockholders” requirement does not only reduce information asymmetry between investors and listed firms, but also strengthens and improves the efficiency of related government regulations in detecting disclosure of false information. This, in turn, increases the risk of being detected for firms with earnings management activities. (2) After abnormal main fund movements, relevant firms significantly reduce the level of earnings management to avoid attention from the public and regulatory agencies. (3) Using political connections as a proxy for the “shield effect” to mask political cost, we show that the negative relation between abnormal main fund movements and earnings management exists only for the subsample of firms without political connections. This paper provides a new angle for political cost study, and suggests that traditional political cost hypothesis should be further generalized.     

Bilateral Trade under Environmental Pressure: Balanced Growth

Based on the advance-retreat course (ARC) model - a growth model under environmental pressure, this paper builds a bilateral import and export trade growth model under environmental pressure. By using the model, the paper analyzes the impacts of innovation on import and export growth, presents a method for computing the optimal levels of imports and exports, derives the limit values of imports and exports, and obtains the limit equilibrium between exports and imports. Finally, a strategy for promoting import and export growth and achieving a bilateral trade balance according to the limit equilibrium is designed. The findings are the following: (i) innovation growth will gradually reduce goods import and export, and services import and export will increase, (ii) the U.S. import–export structure is more reasonable than that of China, and (iii) there is big room for services import and export growth for China.     

非法人组织民事主体资格之探讨——从民事主体与意志关系的角度

民事主体和意志有着千丝万缕的联系,主体是对客体的支配者,即主体之所以为主体是因为其可以在客体上实现自己的意志.但是意志是否可以作为判断是否具有民事主体资格的唯一标准,笔者认为还有待商榷.特别是在判断法人和非法人组织的民事主体资格上,以意志作为判断理论更加显得有些牵强.非法人组织同样可以赋予民事主体资格,意志学说倡导依靠意志来判断是否是民事主体的方法,终究难以适应经济的发展的需要.