呼唤深圳房地产的平稳健康发展

深圳房地产市场经过一年的调整,房价已经下跌将近40%。与此同时,受国内外经济严峻形势的影响,深圳整体经济也呈现明显的放缓迹象。为了保持深圳经济的持续健康稳定发展,房地产业应该脱离目前那种“剑客”当道,怪论充斥的舆论氛围,下大力通过制度建设、市场疏导、产业改革等措施,尽快走出目前的低迷态势,特别是有效恢复合理的成交量,确保市民的正常住房需求和深圳经济整体上的良性发展。     

Interannual Climate Variation, Climate Prediction, and Agricultural Trade: the Costs of Surprise versus Variability

Agriculture remains sensitive to variation in rainfall and temperature. Fortunately, our ability to predict the lower frequency variation in the earth's atmosphere is increasing rapidly. While information cannot affect the underlying source of variability, it allows unexpected shocks to be anticipated and acted upon. This paper develops and analyzes an intertemporal Ricardian trade model with Bayesian beliefs. Results in this paper show that improved climate prediction reduces expected prices, but increases price variability. In addition, trade is crucial to realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction. The value of climate prediction is highest with both storage and trade, and falls by over 300% when a country is in autarky.     

The contribution of a satellite market to price discovery: Evidence from the Singapore exchange

The Singapore Exchange (SGX), a small satellite market, successfully competes with a large home market, the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE), in trading the Nikkei 225 futures index. In this paper, we investigate the contribution of the SGX to price discovery and shed light on the reasons for its continued success. Evidence is provided from information revelation and price discovery of three competing but informationally linked markets of the Nikkei 225 index—domestic spot (Tokyo Stock Exchange), domestic futures (OSE), and foreign futures (SGX), which represents the satellite market. Overall, the futures market contributes 77% to price discovery, with the satellite market contributing 42% of the futures and 33% of the total price discovery. These figures, surprisingly, far exceed the satellite market's share of trading volume. Support is provided for the extended trading hours on the SGX for three of the four non‐overlapping trading sub‐periods. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:981–1004, 2004     

Copyright Damages and Statistics

This paper discusses the statistical issues that arise in conducting an economic damages analysis in the context of a litigation matter involving copyrights. Calculating damages in copyright cases turns out to be a natural application for econometric modelling methods. Surprisingly, elementary statistical issues can be a source of significant debate between the experts in such matters. In this paper, we present a case study and illustrate how issues such as interpretation of p -values and what "rejection of the null hypothesis" really "means" in such matters.     

台湾农业转型的主要历程、趋势与启示

本文分析了台湾农业转型发展三个阶段及其主要趋势，提出农业经济地位下降、农业相较于其他产业的弱势、农业人口减少是农业发展过程中的必然结果，而农业功能定位也必须多样化。     

Long- and short-term interest rates in 19 countries: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability

This paper examines the long-run relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates (both nominal and real) in 19 countries, and explores the possibility that the relationship is statistically stable using Lc, MeanF, and SupF statistics suggested by Hansen [1992]. Empirical results obtained from various cointegration techniques (Johansen, Phillips and Hansen, Stock and Watson, and Park) and quarterly data (1973–1998) show considerable support for the expectations hypothesis in all countries (except the United Kingdom). In a majority of cases, it is also found that a stable relationship exists between the short-term and long-term interest rates.     

China's regional income disparityAn alternative way to think of the sources and causes1

Using data on China's provincial economies for the period 1978–2005, we decomposed the causes and factors that have contributed to inter‐regional per capita income disparity. Variance in capital per employee and variance in capital elasticity are found to be the two main sources of income disparity while the employment–labour force ratio is shown to be an important factor in containing the rise of income disparity. An analysis on inter‐regional factor reallocation effects reveals their relatively small and insignificant contributions to overall growth performance. It is also discovered that capital has in most years flowed in the right direction to pursue higher marginal productivity across provincial economies. Inter‐provincial labour movement, on the other hand, had not displayed significant equilibrating effects until institutional reforms started to allow freer inter‐regional labour mobility in later years. Generally, we conclude that market‐oriented factor mobility has played a crucial role in equalizing factor returns as well as enhancing growth efficiency across regions.     

Domestic Support and Border Measures for Processed Horticultural Products

In horticultural markets, trade barriers often apply to the processed products whereas domestic support applies to farm-produced raw commodities. Here we assess the effects of such trade barriers and domestic support by simulating the effects of policy reform on global processing tomato markets, which are faced with modest processed product tariffs and high domestic support in the European Union (EU). Both protection and EU subsidy drive down world welfare, but we find that reducing import tariffs for tomato products would yield greater effects on markets and larger welfare impacts outside Europe than would reductions in EU domestic support.     

Mutual Fund Advisory Contracts: An Empirical Investigation

We investigate marginal compensation rates in mutual fund advisory contracts and find the following. Equity and foreign fund advisors receive higher marginal compensation than debt and domestic fund advisors. Advisors of funds with greater turnover receive higher marginal compensation. Also, closed-end fund advisors receive higher marginal compensation than open-end fund advisors. Finally, we find that marginal compensation is lower for advisors of large funds and members of large fund families. We argue that these differences in marginal compensation reflect differences in advisor marginal product, differences in the difficulty of monitoring performance, differences in control environments, and scale economies.     

Bid‐ask spreads,volatility, quote revisions,and trades of thinly traded futures contracts

We investigate intraday bid‐ask spreads (BAS), volatility, and trading activity of thinly traded equity index futures contracts on the Singapore Exchange. Contrary to previous findings, we find a rather flat BAS pattern during the trading day. However, consistent with past findings, an increase in risk widens the spread and a higher trading activity reduces it. When trading occurs in a day, spreads are reduced. No significant difference in volatility between days with and without trades was detected. When trades occur, quote revisions increase, and it is positively related to the number of trades. An increase in the number of quote revisions increases the likelihood of a transaction, and when quotes are current, revisions that are accompanied by trades carry new information. We provide evidence that contracts that are thinly traded may possess liquidity attributes as long as their price quotes remain current. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:455–486, 2003