The Trade Restrictiveness of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement

This study uses the trade restrictiveness index (TRI) of Andersonand Neary (1990) to evaluate U.S. policy toward seven majorexporters of textiles and apparel under the Multi-Fibre Arrangement(MFA). The period covered is 1982–88. The MFA controlsthe shipment of most textile and apparel items to the UnitedStates through a system of bilaterally negotiated export quotasthat allow for annual growth. The arrangement itself was renegotiatedin 1986, with an expansion in the number of items covered andcountries included. In addition to these policy changes, changesin economic conditions during the data period altered the restrictivenessof the MFA. The TRI in principle permits all these influencesto be accounted for in a consistent manner. The TRI resultsare contrasted with the standard trade-weighted average tariffequivalent of the quotas. The correlation of the two measuresis not significantly different from zero.     

A NOTE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SYSTEMATIC RISK AND GROWTH IN EARNINGS

This paper provides a simple analytical derivation of the relationship between growth in earnings and systematic risk. Theoretically and empirically it concludes that this relationship is positive.     

PREPAYMENT RISK AND THE DURATION OF DEFAULT-FREE MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES

The conventional duration measure for mortgage-backed pass-through securities assumes that the prepayment rate is invariant to changes in market interest rates. In this paper, the conventional duration is modified to take into account the interest-rate sensitivity of mortgage prepayments. Including interest rate sensitivity is shown to reduce substantially the duration of a mortgage-backed pass-through security when the current mortgage rate is less than the contract rate.     

PROGRAMMING FOR EFFICIENT PLANNING AGAINST NON-NORMAL RISK

A planning methodology is developed based on Monte Carlo sampling of plans and sorting out inefficient plans according to the rules of stochastic dominance. Illustrations and methodological comparison are made in a context of farm planning under risk, and an application in income stabilization research is indicated.     

Lerner symmetry and trilateral relations in international monetary economics

The classical Lerner symmetry theorem concerning the equivalence of import and export tariffs is extended to a monetary economy under flexible exchange rates. Under fixed exchange rates, this should be replaced by the trilateral-relation theorem. The Meade theorem is also extended.     

Residential energy demand in the United States: A regional econometric analysis

A static equilibrium and a dynamic partial adjustment model of residential demand for electricity and natural gas are presented and estimated for the United States over a recent period characterized by sharply increasing energy prices. The static model is estimated using Ordinary Least Squares while the instrumental variables method is used for the dynamic partial adjustment model. The estimates of long-run elasticities suggest the residential demand for electricity and natural gas are price and income elastic. Intercept and slope dummies used in the models identify significant regional differences in demand functions.     

Subject-anticipated versus experimentally-derived measures of influence: Advertising implications

Three representative communication sources were selected from thirteen pictured sources using hierarchical grouping analysis. Slides of the three sources were shown sequentially to a sample of 192 male undergraduate business students, who were asked to indicate their perception of each in terms of twenty-one image and two anticipated influence (believability and convincingness) scales arrayed in five-point semantic differential format. Subjects then indicated their extent of agreement with one of three prescaled statements concerning commercial airlines randomly attributed to each source (experimentally-determined measure of influence). Anticipated and objective influence were found to vary across sources. The relative effectiveness of the three sources was found to differ when subject-anticipated and experimentally-determined influence measures were used.     

Nutrition and the fertility of younger women in Kinshasa,Zaire

This paper examines the relationship between various measures of household nutrition and fertility in Zaire (where malnutrition is rampant), in particular, the total effect of these nutrition measures on the length of time between births when infant mortality rates are held constant. Closed birth intervals (including average birth interval and length of 1st and 2nd closed birth intervals) and probability of occurrence of 2nd birth after the 1st birth, whether or not the 2nd birth occurred before the survey date, are examined to provide support to the hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between calorie consumption and interval between births. Data used for analysis are households (taken from the 1969 Socio-Economic Survey of Kinshasa) headed by a man with only 1 wife (aged 20-24 years at survey date). The main policy implication of the study is that rises in calorie consumption associated with the early stages of modernization may be expected to increase fertility in noncontracepting populations if there is no change in infant mortality rates. If infant mortlaity declines, the total effect of an increase in calorie consumption on the fertility of women is ambiguous. Another implication is that if calorie consumption can be held constant and protein consumption increases, both infant mortality and fertility may fall. A fall in infant mortality may result in a fall in fertility, although the average length of the period of postpartum amenorrhea may fall. A combined examination of similar data from other cities of Zaire and a cross time study of other data sets may help unravel the complex biological and behavioral determinants of fertility.     

Mortgage Default Risks and the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake

The paper is based on a study of mortgage default risks associated with natural disasters. These risks are faced by holders of mortgages when forced by default to acquire damaged properties. A sample of residential mortgage properties damaged in the 1971 San Fernando, California earthquake is studied. Some of the mortgagors defaulted while others did not. The paper identifies and analyzes those variables associated with default using discriminant and probit regression analysis. The study concentrates on earthquake exposures in California, but has implications for all major disasters.