什么因素促使国际油价长期居高不下?

在未来5～10年里,世界大多数人不能够就近并尽其所能地购买和消费包括石油在内的大宗商品,所以牛市将会持续.维持国际油价长期居高不下的主要因素包括:1)世界经济发展形势良好;2)通货膨胀得到有效控制;3)美元大幅贬值;4)石油输出国组织控制石油供应量;5)原油库存减少;6)全球炼油能力无法满足需求;7)石油生产国和消费国对全球石油供需的预测值差异较大,供应无法满足需求.虽然石油价格很高,但需求仍在增长,整个供应链的产能仍然很紧张,石油和天然气在能源中的主导地位并没有面临很大的挑战,这可能就是问题的根本所在.     

The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19

Large in‐person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID‐19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7–16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask‐wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay‐at‐home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID‐19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference‐in‐differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4–12.5% increase in COVID‐19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID‐19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.     

A strategy,structure, human resource database: OASIS

Traditionally, strategic planners and human resource professionals have taken separate approaches in their attempts to improve organization functioning. As a result, strategic planners lack important information that affects the implementation of their plans and human resource managers have little impact on the strategic direction of their orgnizations. The University of Michigan, Hay Associates, and The Strategic Planning Institute have come together in a new venture to build a multicompany database that links organization characteristics and human resource and strategic planning practices with data on company financial performance. The database will be used to make intercompany comparisons on significant organization variables and to identify those practices that lead to improved financial performance.     

HR professional development: creating the future creators at the University of Michigan Business School

This article focuses on the development of mid‐ to senior‐level HR professionals through a public program offered at the University of Michigan Business School. We suggest that developing HR professionals requires a theory of competencies about what HR professionals must know and do and a development experience based on those competencies. We highlight how we have created a competency model over the last decade and designed our HR executive programs to deliver against this model. We also show the pedagogical techniques used to deliver these competencies. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Pupils' attitudes to technology in key stage 3 of the national curriculum: A study of pupils in South Wales

This paper describes part of a continuing research project based at the University of Wales, Swansea, which is investigating pupils' attitudes to a range of national curriculum subjects. There has been no major national funded project to evaluate the national curriculum from pupils' perspectives. The market economy philosophy adopted by the present government is restricted in the meaning of choice given to consumers of education. Pupils' opinions are rarely sought out.The paper describes the results gained from a Likert-type attitude scale and subsequent follow-up interviews with a selection of pupils aged 13 and 14 years in secondary schools across South Wales.     

The enterprise response to industrial relations legislation

The authors report a study into the impact of the former Labour Government's industrial relations legislation, much of which remains on the statute book. They focus on joint health and safety committees and provide a useful starting point for further research concerned to develop a model of firm response to industrial relations legislation in any particular subject area.     

Union organizing in Britain: a survey of policy and practice

Analysis of the reasons for trade union decline in developed economies has pointed to their failure to invest in effective methods of recruitment as a contributory factor. This article presents survey and case research to examine the extent to which union failure in recruitment and organizing has been rectified in the United Kingdom. The evidence indicates a varied but nevertheless substantial re-direction of union effort towards recruitment since the mid-1990s and is used to identify the characteristics of 'recruiting unions' which have invested more heavily and adopted more ambitious recruitment targets. Recruiting unions are found to be those which are receptive to learning new approaches to recruitment from overseas and which have relatively advanced arrangements for the representation of women and minorities in their internal systems of government.