The relationship between a firm's patent quality and its market value — The case of US pharmaceutical industry

This study examined the relationships between corporate market value and four patent quality indicators - relative patent position (RPP), revealed technology advantage (RTA), Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of patents (HHI of patents), and patent citations - in the US pharmaceutical industry. The results showed that RPP and patent citations were positively associated with corporate market value, but HHI of patents was negatively associated with it, while RTA was not significantly related to it. Thus, if pharmaceutical companies want to enhance their market value, they should increase their leading positions in their most important technological fields, cultivate more diversity of technological capabilities, and raise innovative value of their patents. In addition, this study found that market value of pharmaceutical companies with high patent counts was higher than that of pharmaceutical companies with low patent counts, and suggested that pharmaceutical companies with low patent counts should increase RPP in their most technological fields, decrease HHI of patents, or raise patent citations to further enhance their market value. Furthermore, this study developed a classification for the pharmaceutical companies to divide them into four types, and provided some suggestions to them.     

Industry- and company-level factors influencing the development of the forest energy business — insights from a Delphi Study

The global business environment of today requires industries to be increasingly agile in order to create added value. There is a particularly urgent need to innovate and redefine business models in the mature pulp and paper industry, which is continually announcing mill closures and reporting persistent profitability problems. This paper focuses on the emerging forest energy business, which appears to offer many novel opportunities for both the forest and the energy industry. We conducted a qualitative dissensus-based online Delphi study and carried out themed expert interviews in order to identify the main industry- and company-level factors that are most likely to influence the bioenergy sector, its value-creation potential and forest and energy companies' future roles in it. The Delphi technique proved to be a valuable research tool with which we were able to obtain comprehensive information on a subject that lacks historical and financial data, and yet requires input from many quarters. The results suggest that the complementary resources held by forest and energy companies make collaboration in the bioenergy business favorable. Moreover, the procurement and logistics of forest raw material appear to be key success factors in terms of yielding the most synergetic gains. Uncertainty about policy interventions nevertheless causes concern given their relatively rapid effect on the prospects of the bioenergy business.     

Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150 M/year lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gases of about $100 billion in 2050.     

Knowledge Management Tools, Inter-Organizational Relationships, Innovation and Firm Performance

The business value of information technology is an enduring research question. This research provides new insights to better understand the mechanisms supporting this relation by analyzing the impact of knowledge management tools (KMTs) on the performances of business units involved in inter-firm collaborative innovation projects. We extend current literature by developing and empirically testing a model where: (1) the use of KMTs is affected by critical organizational variables, (2) KMTs can impact the innovation and financial performances of business units. We find that mutual trust and culture for change do not affect the extent of the use of KMTs, while collaborative experience and naturalness in using ICTs as substitutive of face-to-face contacts have a significant impact. Moreover, we show that a more intense use of KMTs has a direct positive effect on new product performance and speed to market, as well as on financial performance. Yet, only new product performance acts as an indirect conduit linking KMT use and financial performances. This article provides a discussion and perspectives of further research concerning the impact of KMTs on innovation practices in inter-firm collaborative environments.     

A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified.A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field ‘defence’ is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology has the potential to generate useful insights for government organizations to help direct technology investments.     

Foresight: A major tool in tackling sustainable development

For many decades, the concept of sustainability has been highly successful in public policies and even in the business world.¹ Nowadays, all initiatives must be sustainable and are primarily assessed on that criterion. However, the efforts made to construct specific methods dedicated to building sustainable strategies seem rather weak. Futurists themselves underestimate the relationship between sustainable development and foresight, even if they are talking about sustainable planning.² They remain generally unaware that foresight could be a major tool in tackling sustainability as well as one of the best methods of preparing sustainable strategies and policies.Indeed, one of the biggest problems in sustainability approaches is the simplistic way used to define the concept, for instance, by using only the very first part of the 1987 the Bruntland report Our Common Future and by limiting the fields of activity on sustainability to the three pillars of the OECD model: economy, social questions, environment.At the Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference (December 2009), it seemed forgotten that sustainability is already an old issue in which futurists were heavily involved at the time of the United Nations Stockholm Environment Conference (1972), in the Limits to Growth Report, published by the Club of Rome (1972)³ and in the OECD Interfutures Foresight, spurred on by Jacques Lesourne (1978).⁴Since that time (forty years ago!) researchers and consultants have learned how to deal with the concept of sustainability, how to analyze it as an ultimate aim for society as a whole as well as a complex object that needs to be approached with adequate methods such as systemic analysis.As Christian Stoffaës said, the aim of foresight is sustainable development in a changing world. As a result, the ultimate aim of strategic foresight appears to be clear: it is sustainability. This article highlights that fundamental relationship as we see it today.⁵     

The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

The future of foresight—A US perspective

The growing interest in business, government, and other organizations and users of futures research in the next ten to thirty years implies that the interest is largely to promote better strategic thinking and planning. Popular in the current futures lexicon is ‘strategic foresight’. This article characterizes, as best the author can, the key characteristics of strategic foresight, under whatever name it occurs, by American futurists. The most central characteristic of American futurists and their approach as practiced around the world is eclectic flexibility in methods and techniques. The American approach is illustrated by the author's own decades of work for organizational clients.