Agritourism networks: empirical evidence from two case studies in Greece

This study investigates the characteristics of informal agritourism-related networks within destinations with the help of social network analysis by measuring macro and meso structural aspects of networks in two tourist destinations in Greece with different geographic characteristics: an island-Lesvos (in North Eastern Aegean) and a continental locality-Plastiras Lake (central part of Greece). The main objective is to illustrate and discuss quantitative and qualitative aspects of these networks with selected actors who are linked (directly or indirectly) with the agritourism sector through personal in-depth and semi-structured interviews. The quantitative aspects include: quantity of links, spatial extent of networks, type of relationship, its “thickness”, the duration of the relationship, issues of seasonality as well as satisfaction of the cooperation. The qualitative aspects include the type of relationship of the actors over the link and who (if anyone) has “control” over this relationship. The main findings indicate that the examined networks are partially affected by the geographic characteristics of the case studies and they are very similar in terms of absolute numbers and network metrics. Although research on networks has been an emerging and promising approach, qualitative characteristics of informal networks seem to be integral for understanding networks and planning tourism policies.     

Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates

The recent literature on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has emphasized the role of two phenomena that may lead to the rejection of the PPP hypothesis: structural breaks and non-linear adjustment induced by transaction costs. These two hypotheses are analyzed separately in the literature. We develop tests for unit roots that account jointly for structural breaks and non-linear adjustment. Structural breaks are modeled by means of a Fourier function that allows for infrequent smooth temporary mean changes and is hence compatible with long-run PPP. Nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an ESTAR model. Our tests present good finite sample properties. The tests are applied to a set of 15 OECD countries' RERs and are able to reject the null of a unit root in 14 cases. The breaks are usually associated with the great appreciation and later depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s and the ESTAR adjustment appears to play an important role.     

Network modeling approaches for calculating wholesale NGA prices: A full comparison based on the Greek fixed broadband market

According to the European Commission Recommendation for setting copper and fiber wholesale prices where cost orientation is imposed as a remedy, National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs) should adopt a Bottom-UP Long-Run Incremental Cost Plus (BU LRIC+) costing methodology that estimates the current cost that a hypothetical efficient operator would incur to build a modern efficient Next Generation Access (NGA) network. The starting point of modeling an efficient operator investing in NGA networks is the network modeling approach. In this paper, we compare the most widely adopted network modeling approaches in terms of wholesale fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) prices. In particular, the modified scorched node approach is compared to the extreme cases of the scorched node and the scorched earth approaches. The comparison between the aforementioned scenarios sheds light on the impact of each approach on the wholesale FTTH prices. The main finding of this paper is that the scorched earth approach leads to a maximum of 10% reduction in the short-term access prices compared to the most inefficient scorched node approach, whereas further extending its optimizations by optimizing the number of central offices, both the short-term and long-term wholesale price reductions are quite significant (more than 20%) regardless of service speeds. Consequently, NRAs should consider a geographically differentiated modeling approach when regulating the wholesale market by adjusting the level of scorching in each area and network segment according to the investment plans of telecom operators. An appropriate variation of the modeled network operator's efficiency is expected to more accurately represent the costs of a reasonably efficient operator based on the real market conditions and a forward-looking perspective. These findings provide valuable information to both network operators and telecom regulators.     

The Day After Grant-Aid: Business Development Schemes for Small Rural Firms in Lagging Areas of Greece

This paper investigates the need for providing follow up business development instruments to small rural businesses that have benefited from grant aid assistance schemes. A sample of 76 small rural businesses in lagging areas of insular Greece is included in the present survey, and ranks thirteen possible business growth instruments. It is found that business development instruments are ranked according to each firm's economic and human capital characteristics. Furthermore, most firms need the concurrent provision of more than one instrument. Likewise, a mixture of business specific schemes, regulatory interventions and infrastructure projects, better serves their business development needs. Results from the present survey indicate that an integrated business development strategy in lagging areas of Greece should be supported by modern, flexibly tailored combinations of assistance, using complex, multi-instrument sets of support to development efforts.     

Inflation, Shadow Prices and the EMU: Evidence From Greece

The paper examines whether inflation systematically distorts the informational content of price signals. A shadow cost function is specified, and the deviation of shadow from actual prices is modeled as a function of the level of economy‐wide inflation, as well as other conditioning variables like budget deficits and changes in inflation rate. It is found that inflation is associated with significant allocative costs in most Greek manufacturing sectors. Measures of cost gains resulting from Greece's convergence towards the EMU are provided and the policy implications are explored.     

On the social optimality of make-or-buy decisions

This article examines the impact of input prices on an entrant’s make-or-buy decision and on the subsequent social welfare level for three alternative models of downstream competition. For each particular model, it derives the range of input prices that induce the entrant to undertake: (a) the productively efficient make-or-buy decision; and (b) the socially optimal make-or-buy decision. The main conclusion of this article is that the entrant’s efficient make-or-buy decision is always socially optimal in the case of the Hotelling model, is socially optimal for the set of input prices that induce the entrant to undertake the efficient decision in the case of Cournot competition and is not necessarily socially optimal in the Bertrand vertical differentiation model. Last, this article examines the conditions under which the efficient and/or socially optimal make-or-buy decision undertaken by an entrant fulfills the regulatory two-fold goal of promoting service-based competition and encouraging facilities-based competition. Therefore, this article also provides the optimal access pricing policy that results in the best feasible outcome in terms of social welfare, productive efficiency, competition level and investment level for a given downstream competition model.     

The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series

This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the break process, the model applied in each regime and the out‐of‐sample probability of a break. In an extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate the presence of breaks and their importance for forecasting. We find no single model that consistently works best in the presence of breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving a good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where rolling window forecasts perform well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs

This paper develops methods for estimating and forecasting in Bayesian panel vector autoregressions of large dimensions with time‐varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We exploit a hierarchical prior that takes into account possible pooling restrictions involving both VAR coefficients and the error covariance matrix, and propose a Bayesian dynamic learning procedure that controls for various sources of model uncertainty. We tackle computational concerns by means of a simulation‐free algorithm that relies on analytical approximations to the posterior. We use our methods to forecast inflation rates in the eurozone and show that these forecasts are superior to alternative methods for large vector autoregressions.     

Net foreign assets,productivity and real exchange rates in constrained economies

Empirical evidence suggests that real exchange rates (RER) behave differently in developed and developing countries. We develop an overlapping generations two-sector exogenous growth model in which RER determination may depend on the country's capacity to borrow from international capital markets. The country faces a constraint on capital inflows. With high domestic savings, the RER only depends on the productivity spread between sectors (Balassa–Samuelson effect). If the constraint is too tight and/or domestic savings too low, the RER depends on both net foreign assets (transfer effect) and productivity. We then analyze the empirical implications of the model and find that, in accordance with the theory, the RER is mainly driven by productivity and net foreign assets in constrained countries and by productivity in unconstrained countries.