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91.
Research on innovation has engoged the attention of many scientific disciplines over the past few decades. But while some categories of determining factors (mainly organizational and environmental) are at the centre of this research, others, such as the role and significance of strategic leadership, seem to have received much less empirical attention. Using evidence from a sample of 97 manufacturing enterprises, the present study tests a model of the impact of strategic leadership and corporate context on technological innovatin (TT). The personality and demographic characteristics of chief executive officers (CEis') are used to measure strategic leadership. A number of environmental and internal organizational variables measure the broader context. Four dimensions of TI are measured. Results suggest that CEO characteristics significantly influence TI, but the structural and environmental context is on aggregate more influential. Interestingly though, in new product introductions, CEIs' characteristics outweight environmental and internal organizational factors. 相似文献
92.
Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods. 相似文献
93.
Stakeholders argue that the information barrier is the major obstacle restricting firms from adopting Energy Efficiency Technologies (EETs) in Europe. The present work examines the processes of information gathering as regards to EETs and explores the factors affecting the level of acquired information by EET adopters. Empirical evidence is provided by a data set of Greek manufacturing firms which have adopted EETs. In conclusion, we propose appropriate policy measures able to promote the adoption of EETs by overcoming the information barrier. 相似文献
94.
This study proposes the use of a simplified jump process, namely the Bernoulli jump process, to develop approximate basket option valuation formulas. The proposed model is based on a more realistic stochastic process—relative to the standard geometric Brownian motion—without introducing additional intractability. Typical approximations, necessary for the development of the closed form formulas, are validated on the basis of a Monte Carlo experiment. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:819–837, 2007 相似文献
95.
Robert Woitsch Dimitris Karagiannis 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2002,11(4):253-267
This article describes the PROMOTE® approach, to define and implement a Service-Based Enterprise Knowledge Management System (E-KMS) that has been developed during the EC-funded project PROMOTE (IST-1999-11658). The aim is to define a modelling language that is used to analyse, document and implement an E-KMS on the basis of so-called Knowledge Management Processes (KMPs). KMPs define the knowledge interaction between knowledge workers in a process-oriented manner and consists of activities that are supported by knowledge management key actions (KA) like searching, categorising or storing information. These knowledge management key actions are supported by Knowledge Management Services (KM-Service). The prototype of PROMOTE® is briefly mentioned to discuss the KMP-models and the service based E-KMS. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
96.
This article develops a new methodology for estimating implied probability density functions for futures prices from American options. The restricting Black–Scholes assumption of a lognormal distribution for the underlying asset is relaxed with the use of the more flexible distributional form of an Edgeworth series expansion around a lognormal distribution. The model is applied to the crude oil market. The results provide strong evidence that the market consensus can be accurately reflected in the risk‐neutral densities recovered from observed option prices. The recovered distributions are tested and found to differ significantly from a single lognormal distribution. In addition, the recovered distributions are more robust than those recovered with a model, which assumes a mixture of two lognormal distributions. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:1–30, 2002 相似文献
97.
98.
VAR FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VARIABLE SELECTION 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Dimitris Korobilis 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2013,28(2):204-230
This paper develops methods for automatic selection of variables in Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs) using the Gibbs sampler. In particular, I provide computationally efficient algorithms for stochastic variable selection in generic linear and nonlinear models, as well as models of large dimensions. The performance of the proposed variable selection method is assessed in forecasting three major macroeconomic time series of the UK economy. Data‐based restrictions of VAR coefficients can help improve upon their unrestricted counterparts in forecasting, and in many cases they compare favorably to shrinkage estimators. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
99.
Dimitris Gavalas Theodore Syriopoulos 《International Advances in Economic Research》2014,20(2):151-166
Credit risk has been one of the most active areas of recent financial research. It is driven by advances in portfolio risk measurement and management techniques, growth in credit derivatives trading, the Basel II implementation, and regulatory concerns stemming from the commercial credit crunch that initially took place in 2001 and 2002 in the USA. Within this broader literature, a growing body of research analyzes the meaning, role, and influence of credit ratings that quantify credit risk. This paper examines the two-way links between credit risk measurement and the macroeconomic conditions, interpreted through phases of business cycles. We propose a methodology applied on bank internal rating data, which estimates ratings migration probabilities while integrating the state of the economy. We first discuss the issue of whether credit risk is low or high in different economic scenarios. In order to evaluate this prospect, we examine each year in four quarters that represent different scenarios throughout the year. We then review how macroeconomic considerations are incorporated into credit risk models and the risk measurement approach that underlies Basel II and Basel III. 相似文献
100.
This paper investigates the economic costs of rebalancing current account positions in the Euro area by means of internal devaluation. Internal devaluation relies on wage suppression in the deficit countries. Based on an old Keynesian model we estimate a current account equation, a wage-Phillips curve and an Okun's Law equation. All estimations are carried out for a panel of twelve Euro area members. From the estimation results we calculate the output costs of reducing current account deficits. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS) had, on average, current account deficits of 8.4% of GDP in 2007. To eliminate these current account deficits, a reduction of GPD by some 47% would be necessary. Trade imbalances can be resolved in two ways: deflationary adjustment in the deficit countries or inflationary adjustment in the surplus countries. The economic costs of deflationary adjustment to those countries are equivalent to the output loss of the Great Depression. An adjustment of the surplus countries would increase growth and it would come with higher inflation, but it would allow rebalancing without a Great Depression in parts of Europe. 相似文献