绿色消费与循环经济

在分析绿色消费的基础上,对我国推广绿色消费发展循环经济提出以下对策:制定法律法规政策,保障发展绿色消费;推行政府绿色采购,倡导发展绿色消费;鼓励企业开展绿色营销,带动绿色消费;加强生态道德观建设,提高公众环境消费意识。     

论投资环境评价的改进

近年来,关于投资环境评价的理论和方法层出不穷,但是,评价体系不完善、评价方法不统一、评价基础不确定等原因使得目前投资环境评价缺乏针对性和适用性,其中评价基础不确定是主要原因。文章认为,投资环境评价的基础是企业,即投资环境评价要面向企业,以企业的经营效果为起点,同时也把企业的经营效果作为终点。     

Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008

From both theoretical and policy perspectives, it is important to understand if financial speculation contributes to the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008. In this paper, we disentangle the effects of financial speculation from those of economic fundamentals by focusing on exogenous changes of financial speculation in oil markets identified by changes in financial investor sentiment. Furthermore, we focus on a quasi-experiment setting, and investigate both sentiment-driven overvaluation of oil prices and subsequent mispricing correction. Our findings suggest that financial speculation might have contributed to the 2003–2008 boom/bust in oil prices.     

Systemic risk and dynamics of contagion: a duplex inter-bank network

This paper constructs a duplex banking network formed by credit relationships and information interaction via the banks’ balance sheet to model the structure of systemic risk and investigate the dynamic mechanism of contagion in terms of default and liquidity infection along with the factors that affect the extent of the contagion. We systematically explain the role that duplex banking networks play in different aspects of risk contagion. Through theoretical analysis and simulations, we conclude that asymmetric information interaction would increase the inflexibility of the system, which leads to liquidity shortage and possibly the collapse of the whole market. The weakness of systemic risk in the interior of the complex banking system can be characterized by the partial discount factor using illiquid assets in the information network. By improving the connectedness of the information network of the duplex networks, the spread of contagion can be partially slowed.     

Determining the integrated volatility via limit order books with multiple records

The integrated volatility plays an important role in risk management and portfolio selection, the estimation methods regarding the quantity have been widely investigated, either under low-frequency data or high-frequency data, or a combination of both. In this paper, we propose a measure for the integrated volatility via limit order book data with possible presence of multiple records. The estimator is valid under mild conditions and it is easily implemented. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator has been verified by simulation studies and we apply the method to some real high-frequency data-sets as well.     

加强政策事中事后评估的思考

党的十九届四中全会明确提出要强化决策执行、评估、监督,做好政策评估对优化政府职能、推动国家治理体系和能力现代化有积极作用。加强政策运行情况的评估,应从优化评估工作机制、完善和培育评估机构、强化评估结果的应用入手,不断提升评估工作质量,形成适应中国特色社会主义现代化治理体系的事中事后政策评估机制。     

清代黔铅运输路线考

清代黔铅的运输分为京运、楚运和川黔采买三大渠道,其运输线路又有长运、分运之别,形成一个遍布全国性的庞大运输网络。这一运输布局体现了清代依据产销地区位、借助原有交通线路、尽可能选择水运的特点。黔铅运输是关乎清代政治、经济、军事的重大问题,全面考证其运输路线具有重要的研究价值。     

基于组合模型的江苏省居民用电量预测分析

研究利用时间序列基本分析方法ARIMA模型分析法、指数平滑ETS模型和神经网络自回归模型对江苏省居民每月用电量进行数据分析、处理、拟合、检验及预测,以2004年1月至2017年12月用电计量数据作为分析样本,使用R软件对该时间序列进行建模。对给出的数据建立ARIMA模型、ETS模型和NNAR神经网络自回归模型,接着利用MAE、RMSE、MAPE三个评价指标来衡量模型的优良度。尝试通过组合模型对2018年江苏省居民12个月的用电量进行预测,与实际值进行对比验证,发现权重模型的误差最小,选择作为最终预测模型。最后得出结论,组合模型的预测效果要优于非组合模型。     

中国金融部门间系统性风险溢出的监测预警研究——基于下行和上行ΔCoES指标的实现与优化

为了对我国金融部门间的系统性风险溢出进行实时监测和有效预警,本文基于Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) 的CoES指标构想,在左尾视角的基础上进一步引入右尾视角,构建下行和上行ΔCoES分别作为系统性风险的同期度量指标和前瞻预警指标,并提出了更为有效合理且同时适用于下行和上行ΔCoES的计算方法。本文一方面采用下行和上行ΔCoES对我国银行、证券、保险三个金融部门间的系统性风险溢出进行监测预警研究,另一方面还基于我国的经验数据检验上行和下行ΔCoES的性质。研究结果显示,我国金融部门间具有显著的系统性风险溢出效应,且三个部门间的风险溢出存在非对称性,银行部门是系统性风险的主要发送者,证券部门是系统性风险的主要接收者;三个部门两两间的风险溢出水平表现出明显的协同性和周期性,且上行的风险溢出水平高于下行。同时,基于我国的经验数据发现,上行ΔCoES对下行ΔCoES具有显著的先导性、前瞻性,上行ΔCoES可以作为系统性风险的前瞻预警指标。此外,下行ΔCoES能够引领ΔCoVaR和基于MES估计方法计算的短期ΔCoES指标,表明本文构建的下行ΔCoES实时性更强,更适合作为系统性风险的实时监测指标。