Rational expectations and monetary models of exchange rate determination: An empirical examination

One asset model of exchange rate determination that has received substantial attention in the literature is the monetary model. As with other asset models, expectations of future exchange rates play a key role. Usually these expectations are assumed to be formed rationally. However, to date there has been no attempt to empirically estimate a complete monetary model with rational expectations. In this paper, such a model is estimated and the restrictions implicity imposed by the rational expectation hypothesis tested. The results suggest that both the parameter constraints associated with the monetary model and those implied by the REH are consistent with recent exchange rate behavior.     

Share Option Rewards and Managerial Performance: an Abnormal Performance Index Model

Managerial share option schemes are widely used as a means of motivating and rewarding corporate performance. Such schemes normally adopt a static exercise price; when additional exercise criteria are employed they are often based on earnings per share. A static exercise price does not adjust for economic changes outside the control of management, and earnings per share hurdles have similar limitations. This paper presents a ‘phantom’ managerial option based on relative performance, together with a pricing model for the valuation of the option. The option is developed and demonstrated using an abnormal performance index. It offers a structure which could be used for different forms of performance measurement, and resolves some important criticisms of the reward and incentive effects of traditional schemes.     

Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective

The CAPM as the benchmark asset pricing model generally performs poorly in both developed and emerging markets. We investigate whether allowing the model parameters to vary improves the performance of the CAPM and the Fama–French model. Conditional asset pricing models scaled by conditioning variables such as Trading Volume and Dividend Yield generally result in small pricing errors. However, a graphical analysis reveals that the predictions of conditional models are generally upward biased. We demonstrate that the bias in prediction may be the consequence of ignoring frequent large variation in asset returns caused by volatile institutional, political and macroeconomic conditions. This is characterised by excess kurtosis. An unconditional Fama–French model augmented with a cubic market factor performs the best among some competing models when local risk factors are employed. Moreover, the conditional models with global risk factors scaled by global conditioning variables perform better than the unconditional models with global risk factors.     

The new US farm policies

This article is an early assessment of the agricultural policies of the Carter administration, particularly as they relate to Western Europe. The author examines emerging US farm policy with regard to: price and production, grain reserves, attitude toward the Common Agricultural Policy of the EEC, trade in agricultural products, and commodity agreements.     

Business and University Technical Research Cooperation: Some Important Issues

As their product life cycles continue to shorten even further, high-tech firms can be expected to seek more external product research and development assistance. At the same time, as university budgets tighten, aggressive universities will seek more industry funds. These trends lead Don Snyder and David Blevins to predict more business–university cooperation. A nationwide U.S. survey indicates that universities that successfully attract industry funds promote both their willingness and capability to develop new commercial products. They do not insist on a minimum project size and are willing to delay publication of research results. There are, however, some ethical issues that need resolution. Commercial laboratories operated on a for-profit basis have questioned such ventures, citing unfair competition and an inappropriate interpretation of the role of universities.     

Wavelet timescales and conditional relationship between higher-order systematic co-moments and portfolio returns

This paper investigates the association between portfolio returns and higher-order systematic co-moments at different timescales obtained through wavelet multi-scaling, a technique that decomposes a given return series into timescales enabling investigation at different return intervals. In Australian industry portfolios, the relative risk positions indicated by systematic co-moments at some timescales are different from those revealed in daily returns. A strong positive (negative) linear association between beta and portfolio return and co-kurtosis and portfolio return in the up (down) market is observed in daily returns and at different timescales. The beta risk is priced in the up and down markets. Co-kurtosis is not priced when the beta is in the pricing model. Co-skewness appears to be priced at a relatively high timescale and this is observed only after the up and down separation of market returns.     

Using screen video capture software to aide and inform cognitive interviewing

Web-based surveys are a salient tool in the repertoire of social and behavioral scientists. The increase in web-based surveys is understandable considering the distinct advantages offered, including: (a) lower costs and reduced labor time, (b) ability to directly transfer data into statistical packages (reducing coding errors), (c) customization options enabling more attractive presentation, (d) ability to reduce respondent burden by embedding skip patterns, and (e) access to larger sample sizes in different geographic regions. It is important to note, however, that administering web-based surveys also introduces distinct sources of error (e.g., coverage, sampling and non-response). Regardless of format (e.g., paper-and-pencil or web-based), specific, prescribed steps must be followed when constructing an instrument in order to reduce survey error and lend credence to the data collected before subsequent analysis is performed. One of those crucial stages integral to the pretesting process is cognitive interviewing. Cognitive interviewing is a qualitative process, encompassing two main techniques: think aloud interviewing and verbal probing. Collectively, these two methods seek to (a) produce information on what the respondent is thinking while answering the questions, (b) the cognitive processes used to answer the questions, and (c) how the respondent answers the questions. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical guide outlining how Camtasia, a screen video capture software, can aide and inform the cognitive interview process.     

Garbage and Recycling with Endogenous Local Policy

This paper estimates the impact of garbage fees and curbside recycling programs on garbage and recycling amounts. Without correction for endogenous policy, a price per bag of garbage has a negative effect on garbage and a positive cross-price effect on recycling. Correction for endogenous local policy increases the effect of the user fee on garbage and the effect of curbside recycling collection on recycling. Introducing a fee of $1 per bag is estimated to reduce garbage by 412 pounds per person per year (44%), but to increase recycling by only 30 pounds per person per year.     

Emerging patterns of complex technological innovation

Technological innovation is increasingly concerned with complex products and processes. The trend toward greater complexity is suggested by the fact that in 1970 complex technologies comprised 43% of the 30 most valuable world goods exports, but by 1996 complex technologies represented 84% of those goods. These technologies are innovated by self-organizing networks. Networks are those linked organizations that create, acquire, and integrate the diverse knowledge and skills required to innovate complex technologies. Accessing tacit knowledge (i.e., experienced-based, unwritten know-how) and integrating it with codified knowledge is a particular strength of many networks. Self-organization refers to the capacity networks have for reordering themselves into more complex structures (e.g., replacing individual managers with management teams), and for using more complex processes (e.g., evolving strategies) without centralized, detailed managerial guidance. Case studies of the innovation pathways traced by six complex technologies indicate that innovations can be grouped into three quite distinct patterns. Transformation: the launching of a new trajectory by a new coevolving network and technology. Normal: the coevolution of an established network and technology along an established trajectory. Transition: the coevolutionary movement to a new trajectory by an established network and technology. Policy makers and managers face the greatest challenge during those periods of movement from one innovation trajectory to another. These are periods of turbulence; they are the embodiment of Schumpeter's “gales of creative destruction.” This paper investigates how, in six case studies, core capabilities, complementary assets, organizational learning, path dependencies, and the selection environment varied among the innovation patterns. The paper builds on work reported in a recent book by the authors entitled: The Complexity Challenge: Technological Innovation for the 21st Century, Pinter, London, 1999.