Learning to play games in extensive form by valuation

Game theoretic models of learning which are based on the strategic form of the game cannot explain learning in games with large extensive form. We study learning in such games by using valuation of moves. A valuation for a player is a numeric assessment of her moves that purports to reflect their desirability. We consider a myopic player, who chooses moves with the highest valuation. Each time the game is played, the player revises her valuation by assigning the payoff obtained in the play to each of the moves she has made. We show for a repeated win-lose game that if the player has a winning strategy in the stage game, there is almost surely a time after which she always wins. When a player has more than two payoffs, a more elaborate learning procedure is required. We consider one that associates with each move the average payoff in the rounds in which this move was made. When all players adopt this learning procedure, with some perturbations, then, with probability 1 there is a time after which strategies that are close to subgame perfect equilibrium are played. A single player who adopts this procedure can guarantee only her individually rational payoff.     

Refining the search for project success factors: a multivariate, typological approach

Although the causes for project success and failure have been the subject of many studies, no conclusive evidence or common agreement has been achieved so far. One criticism involves the universalistic approach used often in project management studies, according to which all projects are assumed to be similar. A second problem is the issue of subjectiveness, and sometimes weakly defined success measures; yet another concern is the limited number of managerial variables examined by previous research. In the present study we use a project-specific typological approach, a multidimensional criteria for assessing project success, and a multivariate statistical analysis method. According to our typology projects were classified according to their technological uncertainty at project initiation and their system scope which is their location on a hierarchical ladder of systems and subsystems. For each of the 127 projects in our study that were executed in Israel, we recorded 360 managerial variables and 13 success measures. The use of a very detailed data and multivariate methods such as canonical correlation and eigenvector analysis enables us to account for all the interactions between managerial and success variables and to address a handful of perspectives, often left unanalyzed by previous research. Assessing the variants of managerial variables and their impact on project success for various types of projects, serves also a step toward the establishment of a typological theory of projects. Although some success factors are common to all projects, our study identified project-specific lists of factors, indicating for example, that high-uncertainty projects must be managed differently than low-uncertainty projects, and high-scope projects differently than low-scope projects.     

Success Factors Of High-Tech SBUs: Towards a Conceptual Model Based on the Israeli Electronics and Computers Industry

Of the few studies that have been performed on success and failure of business units in industrial organizations, most were based on marketing and financial data collected in the PIMS program. This study explores the factors contributing to success and failure of high-tech business units. It is based on a survey conducted in the electronics and computers industry in Israel. The article argues that the success of business units in this industry should not be measured in financial terms only. There are two additional dimensions to success: positioning in the market and preparing the necessary assets and infrastructure for future development, manufacturing and marketing of new products.Some unique success and failure factors, other than those revealed in studies at the product level, were found to contribute to the success of high-tech business units.     

Technology's varying impact on the success of strategic business units within the miles and snow typology

The high-tech industry is usually treated as an homogeneous entity, without differentiating between organizations according to the relative importance of technology in their business strategy. This paper investigates the varying impact of technology on the success of strategic business units within the Miles and Snow typology. Although common wisdom might lead to the conclusion that prospectors are more dependent on technological progress than the other strategic types, the results show rather that the influence is greater and more fruitful for the defenders both in the short and the long term.     

Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: A better surrogate for market expectations

The specification of the market expectation of accounting numbers is a common feature of many empirical studies in accounting and finance. Givoly and Lakonishok (1979) found that financial analysts' forecasts have information content. This study evaluates the quality of analysts' forecasts as surrogates for the market expectation of earnings and compares it with that of prediction models commonly used in research. Results indicate that prediction errors of analysts are more closely associated with security price movements, suggesting that analysts' forecasts provide a better surrogate for market expectations than forecasts generated by time-series models. The study also identifies factors that might contribute to the performance of the financial analysts'forecasts. The broadness of the information set employed by analysts and, to a lesser extent, their reliance on information released after the end of the fiscal year appear to be important contributors to their performance.     

Reevaluation of Revaluations: A Cross-Country Examination of the Motives and Effects on Future Performance

Abstract:  This study examines the motives for asset revaluations in a sample drawn from 35 countries that permit asset revaluations. Prior studies that examined this issue concentrated on one or two countries, the UK and Australia, and showed that revaluations are related to financing needs, the capital intensity of the firm as well as issues related to political costs. The previous literature also found that revaluations were indicators of improved future performance and that performance was related to the magnitude of the revaluations. This study shows that although the conclusions drawn from the previous studies are applicable to countries that are similar to the UK and Australia, they do not hold when applied to a much larger set of countries and that the motivations for and effects of revaluation are not uniform across various country classifications.     

Integrative processes in agricultural marketing channels

The study traces patterns of inter-organizational coordination in marketing channels and shows how changes in the relationship among organizations are associated with shifts in orientation and mode of interaction. The analysis is based on developments in agromarketing and food distribution organizations. The current crisis in food supplies and international concern with the availability of raw products should bring this neglected area into the forefront of marketing concern. The study is based on observations of current trends of inter-organizational integration in the U.S., U.K. and Israel. It points to the emergence of a new institutional form the authors call the Societal Marketing Board. The Societal Marketing Board (SMB) is a federated inter-organizational system, comprised of all sectors of an industry, established by legislation to promote the interests of that industry. The analysis concludes that the SMB has the potential: 1) to generate resources and ‘increase the pie’ for the benefit of all; 2) to broaden the oriengation of sectorial organization to reflect a wider range of social interests; 3) to achieve the above goals while curbing direct government intervention. It suggests that the operation of the Societal Marketing Board can contribute toward mitigating the tension from contradictory pressures for greater coordination in the complex marketing system on the one hand, and for economic freedom and market competition on the other.     

Stochastic Common Learning

We present a general model in which agents learn by observing a stochastic process. We show that agents not only learn in such a model but also learn commonly. By this we mean that in the long run agents will form common beliefs concerning important facts and in particular they will commonly believe that their views regarding the future are similar. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73, D82.