On some noncentral distribution problems for the mixture of two normal populations

Summary The null density of the multiple correlation coefficient when sampling from a mixture of two normal populations has been derived by Srivastava (1983). However, he does not express this density in a rather standard form. The present paper obtains the nonnull densities of the multiple correlation coefficient and the partial correlation coefficient in a rather standard form when sampling from a mixture of two normal populations.     

Efficiency wages and income taxes

The paper was written during a visit at the Ludwig-Maximilian-University of Munich in the summer of 1988. The hospitality of this institution, as well as the financial support from a Ruhrgas Scholarship under the West German Norwegian Scholarship Scheme, is gratefully acknowledged. Participants at various seminars have given useful comments and criticism. I am also grateful to two anonymous referees for their comments to an earlier version of the paper.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

中国对美直接投资现状分析与发展对策建议

中国对美直接投资（FDI）在过去近10年时间里保持着快速增长态势,并拥有良好的发展前景。文章归纳了中国对美FDI所表现出的基本特征,全面分析了近年来促进中国对美FDI增长的驱动因素,以及国内企业在对美FDI中遇到的制约因素,指出为继续推动中国对美FDI的快速发展,需要中美两国加强政治上的互信与理解,也需要中国企业充分熟知美国的投资规则,提高自身投资管理技能。     

支持物流系统的智能化方向

介绍了ＣＡＬＳ在物流领域的应用前景，论述了物流技术发展及其智能化方向的理想，概念等有关问题，最后介绍了假想物流系统技术的概念和发展及其应用的意义。     

Morphogenetic economics: Change- amplification by causal loops

The monetarist, Keynesian, and supply side theories are based on the concept of equilibria. But in reality the relations among variables may build causal loops that are change-amplifying. The morphogenetic economic the ory includes in its analysis both change-amplifying and change-counteracting causal loops. In the existing economic theories, the major policy tools are money supply and government expenditure. But in the morphogenetic economics, some other elements can be seen as effective policy tools, depending on the node factor, the velocity, and the strength of the causal loops they belong to. The present overdependence on money supply or government expenditure as main tools of economic policy is inadequate. Furthermore, the morphogenetic economics differs from the existing economic theories in its calculation of the level of equilibria and of crowdingout effects.     

Terrorism and tourism as logical companions

The symbiotic relationship between terrorism and tourism needs to be understood and acted on, not just in terms of security and marketing, but in terms of such factors as planning, site development, employment policies, political risk analysis and emergency management. This article looks at the relationship between tourism and terrorism from several perspectives. The political and economic impact of terrorism on tourism is assessed, including the sensitivity of the tourism industry to general political strife and the vulnerability of travellers and tourist facilities to terroristic activity. The nature of terroristic violence and the objectives of terrorist groups are evaluated to determine why and how attacks on tourists and facilities may fit the organizational and political objectives of terrorist groups. Finally, the article suggests how the industry and policy makers must proceed to reduce the vulnerability for tourists and the travel sector.