U.S. merger policy and the 1992 Merger Guidelines

This article reviews the empirical evidence regarding the effects of mergers on corporate efficiency. In light of this evidence it then evaluates the effectiveness of U.S. merger policy as articulated in the 1992 Guidelines of the Department of Justice. It argues that the 1992 Guidelines and the U.S. Government's policies toward business more generally over the past 12 years have been characterized by a bias for bigness. It concludes that this bias will only be eliminated when government authorities in charge of merger policy recognize that many mergers lower economic efficiency and design and enforce their policies accordingly.     

The term structure of inflation expectations

We use information in the term structure of survey-based forecasts of inflation to estimate a factor hidden in the nominal yield curve. We construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and Treasury real and nominal yields by allowing for differences between risk-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We establish that model-based inflation expectations are driven by inflation, output, and one latent factor. We find that this factor affects inflation expectations at all horizons but has almost no effect on the nominal yields; that is, the latent factor is hidden. We show that this hidden factor is not related to either current and past inflation or the standard set of macro variables studied in the literature. Consistent with the theoretical property of a hidden factor, our model outperforms a standard macro-finance model in its forecasting of inflation and yields.     

Making Conditional Cash Transfer Programs More Efficient: Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionality

Conditional cash transfer programs are now used extensivelyto encourage poor parents to increase investments in their children’shuman capital. These programs can be large and expensive, motivatinga quest for greater efficiency through increased impact of theprograms’ imposed conditions on human capital formation.This requires designing the programs’ targeting and calibrationrules specifically to achieve this result. Using data from theProgresa randomized experiment in Mexico, this article showsthat large efficiency gains can be achieved by taking into accounthow much the probability of a child’s enrollment is affectedby a conditional transfer. Rules for targeting and calibrationcan be made easy to implement by selecting indicators that aresimple, observable, and verifiable and that cannot be manipulatedby beneficiaries. The Mexico case shows that these efficiencygains can be achieved without increasing inequality among poorhouseholds.     

Employee job satisfaction in developing countries: The case of Kenya

Although developing countries that rely on agriculture continue to invest considerable amounts of resources toward the training of qualified agricultural manpower, the intensification of agricultural research, and the development of favourable agricultural policies, little attention is given to the organizational and social structure of the workplaces of the technical workers in agriculture. We argue that an understanding of what produces satisfied agricultural technicians is important in its own right, but is also important for indirectly increasing agricultural production in these developing countries. Following a social exchange theoretical argument, and using a national sample of technically trained agricultural personnel in Kenya, we identify the factors in the workplace that affect job satisfaction. Implications for management are drawn from these findings.     

Insider ownership, ownership concentration and investment performance: An international comparison

This article makes two important contributions to the literature on the incentive effects of insider ownership. First, it presents a clean method for separating the positive wealth effect of insider ownership from the negative entrenchment effect, which can be applied to samples of companies from the US and any other country. Second, it measures the effects of insider ownership using a measure of firm performance, namely a marginal q, which ensures that the causal relationship estimated runs from ownership to performance. The article applies this method to a large sample of publicly listed firms from the Anglo-Saxon and Civil law traditions and confirms that managerial entrenchment has an unambiguous negative effect on firm performance as measured by both Tobin's (average) q and our marginal q, and that the wealth effect of insider ownership is unambiguously positive for both measures. We also test for the effects of ownership concentration for other categories of owners and find that while institutional ownership improves the performance in the USA, financial institutions have a negative impact in other Anglo-Saxon countries and in Europe.     

It’s so hot: predicting climate change effects on urban tourists’ time–space experience

Abstract

Progressive changes in mean annual temperatures are arguably the strongest evidence of ongoing climate change. In destinations with a Mediterranean climate, in contrast to the colder months, during summer, rising air temperatures are believed to inhibit tourist movements and activities, and consequently affect tourists’ evaluation of and satisfaction with their experiences. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has investigated the potential impact of climate change on tourists’ time–space activity using actual behavioural tracking-based information. Data collected via GPS technology and a post-visit survey of tourists (n = 404) visiting Lisbon during the summer were analysed via structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). The results report empirical evidence of the present impact of (summer) weather on urban tourists’ time–space activity and on their intra-destination experience evaluation. Specifically, maximum air temperature is found to have a significant negative effect on overall satisfaction, while the meteorological conditions of the entire day reveal a significant impact on tourists’ activities and movements. The results are particularly useful for the sustainable adaptive management of urban attractions and destinations that are especially vulnerable to climate change, as well as in managing its adverse impact on tourists’ experiences.     

Redefining Local Government Roles In Public Services

County officials in the seven-county metropolitan area of the State of Minnesota's Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St Paul were seeking to redefine county roles in service delivery. This article reports on a process model that was piloted on two services. The model was commissioned by officials; was based upon and informed by literature and comparative experience; began with an examination of functions performed; involved participants in focusing the study; was context-focused; and involved local stakeholders in projecting the implications of alternative county roles. These characteristics complicated the research management process because the process took more time, involved more actors, and required more coordination than traditional research. However, having stakeholders identify alternatives and bring factual material to the process was critical to the success of the model and including the comparative and contextual research both strengthened the policy conclusions and improved the probability of their adoption and implementation. A case of a Minnesota county that followed the model in an effort to reform water governance within the county illustrated adoption of the approach. The stakeholder analysis process was previously applied in Africa, China and Southeast Asia and the model should be applicable to a wide range of settings and problems.     

What drives the effectiveness of industrial clusters? Exploring the impact of contextual,structural and functioning determinants

This study examines how contextual, structural and functioning characteristics of industrial clusters influence their effectiveness. We develop a conceptual framework that identifies potential influencing factors, validate the factors statistically, and estimate the factors’ impact on cluster effectiveness. Our results show that among the important determinants of cluster effectiveness are long-term planning security and procedural trust among the cooperating firms (contextual conditions), formalized rules and sustainable structures (structural elements), and clear goals and tasks (functioning characteristics). However, the results also reveal that some determinants assessed as important in the literature do not seem to have a positive impact on effectiveness. Our results not only modify general assumptions in cluster research concerning the drivers of cluster effectiveness, but also assist firms and policy-makers in conceptualizing successful new clusters.